How To Use the NHL Tool Suite: A Complete Guide

Part of the Mama Knows Bets Education Series. See also: What is +EV Betting?, Bankroll Basics, Why Taking the Best Odds Matters, and How to Use the Value Finders Results Dashboard.

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What is the NHL Tool Suite?

The NHL Tool Suite is our unified NHL analysis platform — seven interconnected tools in one place, designed to take you from "what does the market think?" all the way through "what does our model think?" and "how has a player been performing lately?"

Previous to the suite, you needed two separate tools for this: the NHL Value Finder for market-based +EV opportunities, and the NHL Projections Dashboard for model projections and game context. The suite combines everything under one roof, with seamless tab switching and shared data so both tools work together.

In simple terms: it's everything you need to find, validate, and track NHL betting opportunities, all in one place.

The Seven Tabs

You can navigate between tabs by clicking the tab bar, and the URL updates automatically (e.g., ?tab=game-view). This means you can bookmark or share a specific tab directly.

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Navigating the Suite

The Header

At the top of every page you'll find:

• 🏒 NHL Tool Suite — the suite title, always visible
• 📖 How-To Guide — links to this article
• 📊 VF Results — links to the Value Finder Results Dashboard, where you can track historical performance of market-based opportunities
• 📈 Model Results — links to the Model Profitability Dashboard
• 📚 Book Key — a quick reference for all sportsbook abbreviations (PN = Pinnacle, FD = FanDuel, DK = DraftKings, etc.)
• Light/Dark toggle — switch themes at any time

On mobile, the links collapse into a "···" menu to keep the header clean.

The Tab Bar

The tab bar lives just below the header. Click any tab to switch — your position within the current tab is remembered so you don't lose your place if you switch and come back.

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Tab 1: Value Finder

The Value Finder is the core betting tool. It scans odds across all major sportsbooks, calculates fair value based on sharp book consensus, and shows you bets where you're getting better odds than the true probability suggests.

In simple terms: it finds bets where the math is on your side.

This tab is essentially the same as the standalone NHL Value Finder, but now lives inside the suite alongside all the supporting context tools. If you've used the Value Finder before, everything you know still applies — read on for the suite-specific additions.

Understanding the Columns

Player, Game & Bet Info

The left columns tell you what the bet is:

• Player — the player's name (click to open the full Player Details panel; hover for a quick tooltip)
• Game — the matchup (e.g., TOR@BOS)
• Time — game start time
• Market — the prop type (Goals, Assists, Points, Shots on Goal, etc.)
• Line — the line value (hover/tap for a full breakdown of all available lines for this player/market)
• Side — Over or Under

The Value Metrics (The Important Stuff)

These are the columns that tell you how much value exists in the bet.

• Best Book — the sportsbook(s) offering the best odds. This is where you should place your bet. If multiple books are tied, they all appear here.
• Best Odds — the American odds at that book (e.g., +360)
• Fair Odds — our calculated "true" odds (source depends on FV Mode — see below)
• EV % — Expected Value percentage — your mathematical edge on this bet
• Recc. U columns — recommended bet size in units. These columns change dynamically based on your selected FV Mode (see "FV Mode and Recc. U Columns" below)
• % vs Next — how much better the Best Book is vs the next closest book
• Coverage — how many books are offering odds on this market

Individual Book Odds

The remaining columns show odds at each specific book. Best Book(s) are highlighted in green. Hover any odds value to see a sparkline showing how that book's line has moved.

Book abbreviations:

• PN = Pinnacle (sharp book — primary fair value anchor)
• FD = FanDuel
• DK = DraftKings
• MG = BetMGM
• FN = Fanatics
• CZ = Caesars
• ES = TheScore
• BB = BallyBet
• BR = BetRivers
• RK = Hard Rock
• BO = BetOnline
• RB = ReBet
• BV = Bovada
• FL = Fliff

Click 📚 Book Key in the header anytime for the full reference.

Exchange fees. Kalshi and ProphetX charge fees (Kalshi on entry, ProphetX on winnings), so their posted price isn't what you actually get. On every Value Finder board (player props and Main Lines), best book, EV and Recc. U use the after-fee price, while the cell keeps the posted price with a small fee tag; hover it (or tap on mobile) to see the price after fees. Novig charges no fee on pre-game bets.

⚠️ "Price looks wrong." Now and then a sportsbook's feed glitches and posts a price that is far longer than every other book (say +1050 where everyone else is −230). We still show that price, with a small ⚠️; hover it (or tap on mobile) to see why. It is never used as the best price, never counts toward EV or Recc. U, and bets placed off it are left out of our tracked results. If a book's whole feed looks broken on one update, all of its prices that update get the ⚠️.

Deep Dive: EV % and Kelly Recommendations

EV % (Expected Value Percentage) tells you your mathematical edge. EV 5% means for every $100 bet long-term, you expect to profit $5. Higher EV = bigger edge.

FV Mode and Recc. U Columns

The Recc. U (recommended units) columns are dynamic — they update based on which FV Mode you have selected. Here's exactly what you'll see:

Market FV (default): Two columns appear:

• Conf. Adj. Recc. U — Kelly size scaled down based on how many (and which) books are reporting odds. If Pinnacle + 10 books are reporting, we're very confident. If only 2-3 soft books? Less confident. This column builds in a buffer so you don't over-bet on potentially unreliable fair values. This is the recommended column to sort by.
• Std. Recc. U — the pure Kelly math: Best Odds vs Market Fair Odds, quarter Kelly. Always ≥ Conf. Adj. Recc. U.

Model FV: A single blue column:

• Model Recc. U — Kelly calculated against model-derived fair value instead of market consensus

Book FV (any individual sportsbook): A single blue column:

• Recc. U vs. [BOOK] — Kelly calculated using that book's odds as the fair value benchmark. Only rows where that specific book has posted odds are shown — any row where the book has no odds is excluded entirely.

Double Edge preset: Three colored columns appear simultaneously:

• Model Recc. U (blue) — Kelly vs model fair value
• Market Recc. U (indigo) — Kelly vs market fair value
• Blend Recc. U (purple) — conservative blend of model and market Kelly using a harmonic mean, which penalizes disagreement between the two signals and pulls toward the lower value

My recommendation for most users: stick to Market FV and sort by Conf. Adj. Recc. U. It's the most conservative, most reliable metric.

For more on bankroll management and what your unit should be, read Bankroll Basics.

Preset Filters

Preset buttons at the top of the tab surface curated subsets of opportunities:

• High Confidence — opportunities with high Confidence Recc. U values; the cream of the crop
• Value Long Shots — higher-odds (+500 and above) opportunities with solid EV and coverage — lottery tickets with actual math behind them
• Outlier Opportunities — bets where one book is significantly out of line with the market (high % vs Next); potentially mispriced lines to grab before they correct
• Model Edge — filters for bets where our model sees positive EV, regardless of current FV mode. Use this to find spots where our model disagrees with the market in your favor
• Double Edge — opportunities where BOTH the market AND our model agree there's edge — the highest-confidence plays. This preset locks FV mode to Market and displays three simultaneous Recc. U columns: Model (blue), Market (indigo), and Blend (purple, a conservative harmonic mean that penalizes disagreement and pulls toward the lower signal). For best results, refresh the page before applying Double Edge to ensure all projection data has loaded.
• 🔥 Steaming +EV — lines that are +EV and that the market has shortened by 0.5+ points in the last 24 hours, biggest moves first. Opens the Movement columns too. See Line Movement (Steaming).

Click any preset to apply it. Click again or Clear to reset.

Toolbar Buttons

The toolbar row above the table, left to right:

• Refresh — pulls the latest data. The tool also auto-refreshes every ~2 minutes.
• Export CSV — downloads all current opportunities as a CSV for your own analysis
• Player Info — toggles additional context columns (Position, Team, Line Assignment, PP Unit) directly in the table. Useful when you want to sort or filter by matchup context without opening the player panel. It's off by default intentionally — if you prefer a pure value-first experience and don't want matchup data swaying your decisions before the math does, leave it off. Turn it on when you want to dig into context. The lock button (next to the toggle, on both desktop and mobile) keeps Player Info on permanently — it persists across sessions so you don't have to re-enable it every time you visit.
• Movement — shows or hides the line-movement columns (2h to 24h, and since open). The 🔒 lock next to it keeps them on across visits. See Line Movement (Steaming) below.
• 💧 Liquidity and 💵 Exchange $ — show how much you can actually bet at each exchange price (Kalshi, Novig, ProphetX) and, if you want, price the board only from prices that can take your bet size. Information, not a value signal. See Liquidity in the Value Finders guide.
• FV Mode — controls the fair value source (Market, Model, or a single book). See FV Mode below.
• My Weights — set your own per-book de-vig weights and recompute fair value from them. See Custom De-Vig Weights below.
• vs MKB — appears once your weights are applied; collapses or expands the MKB comparison columns.
• Boost — applies a profit boost to a selected book's odds. See Boost Calculator below.
• Save / Load — save and restore named filter configurations. See Saved Filters below.
• Exclude Books — remove books you don't have access to from the Best Book calculation. See Exclude Books below.
• Must Include — filter to only show rows where all your selected books have posted odds. See Must Include Books below.
• Unit $ — set your unit size in dollars to see dollar amounts alongside unit recommendations.
• +/− · % · Both — how odds are displayed. +/− shows American odds (+150), % shows implied probability (40.0%), and Both stacks them, percentage above the price. Useful now that several exchanges quote in percentages — Both lets you read a mixed board without converting in your head. Color shading on the cells is based on the underlying price either way, so it doesn't change when you switch.

Sorting and Filtering

Sort by clicking any column header. Click again to reverse.

Default recommendation: sort by Conf. Adj. Recc. U, high to low (in Market FV mode).

Filter using the filter row below each header:

• Player name is a free-text search
• Book, Market, Game, Side, and other dropdowns support multi-select — you can filter to multiple books or markets simultaneously. Each dropdown includes a Select All button at the top so you can quickly select everything, then un-check just the one or two you don't want.
• Numeric columns (EV %, Recc. U, Best Odds, etc.) support min/max range filters — enter a minimum, a maximum, or both
• Filters stack across columns

Once you have a filter combination you use regularly, save it with the Save button so you can reload it instantly next session — see Saved Filters below.

Sparklines: Reading Line Movement

Hover over any odds value (or the Best Odds column) to see a sparkline showing how that line has moved. The y-axis shows implied probability (not odds directly) — higher on the chart means more likely, which means lower odds.

The chart covers the line's full history, up to a maximum of seven days, and every point is stamped with its date and time (8/22 11:39a on the axis, Aug 22, 11:39 AM ET on hover) so you always know which day you're reading.

What to look for:

• A book's line sitting below the fair value (dotted) line — you're getting better than true odds
• Steam moves — sharp simultaneous drops across multiple books mean sharp money has hit; act quickly
• Lagging books — one book's line barely moving while others adjust could mean a pricing delay and an opportunity

Line Movement (Steaming)

"Steaming" is when the market shortens a price — more money and more books coming in on one side, so the odds get shorter. The 📈 Movement columns show how far each line has moved, so you can see what's steaming (and what's drifting) right next to the odds.

How to open it: click 📈 Movement in the toolbar, right next to Player Info. A group of columns opens right after Coverage, beside the odds:

Click 📈 Movement again to hide them. To keep them on every time you visit, click the 🔒 lock next to the button — same as Player Info.

How to read the numbers: each one is in percentage points of chance.

• +1.5 means the market now gives it 1.5 more points of chance than it did — for example, from 20% to 21.5%. The price got shorter. That's steam. Shaded green.
• −1.5 means it drifted — the market likes it less, and the price got longer. Shaded blue.
• — (blank) means there isn't enough market behind the line to call it a move. See below.

Every column sorts and filters like any other — click a header to sort by the biggest movers, or use the range filter to set a minimum.

What counts as movement — and what doesn't:

• Only books that had odds the whole time are counted. When a sportsbook adds or pulls its odds, our fair value can jump even though nobody changed their price. That's not the market moving, so it isn't counted here.
• Sharp books count for more. A move by a sharp book like Pinnacle carries more weight than the same move by a smaller book — the same weighting we use for fair value.
• It needs a real market. At least 3 books have to have had odds the whole time — one or two books moving on their own isn't steam, so it shows as blank. A brand-new line is measured from the point enough books had posted odds, not from the very first book to post.

The yellow ⚠ on the 24h column: this shows when our fair value moved a different amount than the market did — usually because a sportsbook added or pulled its odds. It's a heads-up that this line's EV% changed more than the market actually moved, so treat a sudden EV% jump on that line with a little caution.

🔥 Steaming +EV filter: in the preset buttons. It shows lines that are still +EV and that the market has shortened by 0.5 points or more in the last 24 hours, biggest moves first — the market is moving toward the bet and a book hasn't caught up yet. It opens the Movement columns for you. Click it again to turn it off. To see everything that's moving, +EV or not, sort the 24h pts column instead.

How to use it:

• Steam plus a +EV price still on the board is the sweet spot — the market is moving toward this bet and at least one book hasn't caught up yet. These don't tend to last.
• Steam against your side (a negative number on the bet you like) means the market disagrees with you. Worth a second look before you bet.
• Short windows (2h) close to game time often mean news — a lineup, an injury, a scratch. Check the player's news before you act on it.
• If it has already steamed and the EV% is gone, you're late. The movement tells you what happened; the EV% tells you whether there's still a bet.
• Pair it with Sparklines. The Movement columns tell you how much the market moved; the sparkline shows you which books moved and when.

On mobile: tap 📈 Movement in the controls. Each card shows a small 24h chip with the 24-hour move, and the expanded card has a Movement section with every window.

The numbers update every 15 minutes with the odds.

Player Tooltips and Player Details Panel

Hover over any player name (desktop) or tap it (mobile) to see a quick tooltip with:

• Team, position, opponent
• Overall matchup score and line/PP assignment context
• Model-projected probability for hitting this line, shown as both a % and American odds, with a green/red edge indicator comparing our projection to the current book odds
• Season-to-date (STD) hit rate for this player at this specific line, with its own edge indicator

Click the player name to open the full Player Details Panel with:

• Full stat projections (Goals, Assists, Points, Shots on Goal, TOI)
• Monte Carlo probabilities for common thresholds (e.g., 1+ G %, 2+ G %, 2+ A %, 3+ SOG %)
• Complete season hit rate history across multiple thresholds
• Line assignment and special teams context

Line Tooltip

Hover over any value in the Line column to see all available lines for that player/market side by side. For each line and side you'll see: Best book, odds, EV%, Rec U, and coverage — all heatmapped so you can spot where the value is at a glance.

VF History

Inside the Line Tooltip (desktop) or line modal (mobile), you'll find a VF History button. Tap it to expand a table showing the last 10 days this exact prop appeared in the Value Finder.

For each historical appearance you'll see:

• Date — when this prop was surfaced
• Book — the Best Book on that day (shown as a colored badge)
• Odds — the odds it was available at (green = better than fair, red = worse)
• Recc. U — the Kelly recommendation on that day
• Result — Hit (green), Miss (red), DNP (yellow — player didn't play), or Pending (gray — result not yet recorded)

When to use it: VF History is a quick sanity check before betting. If a prop has been surfacing consistently for several days and has been hitting, that's additional signal. If it's been a persistent miss, it might be worth waiting or skipping.

Desktop vs. Mobile

Desktop: Full table with all columns. Scroll horizontally for individual book odds. Click headers to sort, use the filter row below headers.

Mobile: Card layout — each opportunity as a stacked card showing the key metrics. Tap the triangle to expand for all book odds. Use the search bar for quick player lookup, and the Filters toggle for sort/filter options. The mobile view fully reflects your FV mode selection: the card header badge and expanded details update to show the correct Recc. U label and value (Conf. Adj., Model, Recc. U vs. Book, or all three for Double Edge). Sort options in the mobile Filters panel also update to match the active mode. The 📈 Movement button works on mobile too — see Line Movement (Steaming).

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Main Lines Tab (Game Lines)

The 🎯 Main Lines tab is the Main Lines Value Finder, for game lines: moneyline, puck line and total for every NHL game, plus every alternate puck line and total. It is the same tool as the Player Prop Value Finder (same columns, toolbar, filters, book columns, boosts, Kelly units, sparklines, line movement, betslip links and Parlay HQ), just with games instead of players. Quick filters, tuned for game lines: 💎 High Confidence (Recc. U ≥ 0.15 and 10+ books, a higher bar than props because main lines are quoted by far more books), 💰 Value Long Shots (+200 or longer, Recc. U ≥ 0.05, 5+ books; a +EV game line at +400 is rare, so this is often empty) and 🔥 Steaming +EV (still +EV after shortening 1+ point in the last 24 hours; game-line prices move less than props, so half a point is an ordinary day). 🧹 Clear resets every filter.

Reading a row. The Bet column reads like a betslip line: Rangers (moneyline), Rangers -1.5 (puck line), Over 6.5 (total). Market says which kind of bet it is, and Line holds the number so you can sort and filter by it. Lines are full game, settled the way the books settle them.

Main lines vs alternates. Alternates are simply more rows. The Market filter lists Moneyline, Puck Line, Total, Alt Puck Line, Alt Total, all ticked by default. Want main lines only? Untick Alt Puck Line and Alt Total. Want only alternates? Untick the other three.

Fair value on game lines. Market FV is de-vigged from the books on that exact line and weighted by sharpness, with Pinnacle as the anchor. A line needs at least 3 sharp-weighted books before we show a fair value or an edge; exchanges (Kalshi, Novig, ProphetX) never count toward those 3. With fewer, you still see every book's price, with no fair value and no edge, rather than a guess. Far-out alternate lines are often priced by only one or two books, so expect more blanks there.

Exchange fees are built in. Kalshi and ProphetX charge fees, so their posted price isn't what you actually get. On Main Lines, best book, EV and Recc. U all use the after-fee price. The odds cell still shows the posted price (what you'll see in the exchange's app) with a small fee tag; hover it (or tap on mobile) to see the price after fees. Novig charges no fee on pre-game bets, so its prices carry no tag.

Settings are separate. Your book columns, custom weights and saved filters on Main Lines are kept separately from the prop Value Finder, so setting up one never changes the other.

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FV Mode Selector

The FV Mode button (in the toolbar row) controls what we use as "fair value" when calculating EV and Kelly recommendations.

Market FV (Default — Recommended)

The default mode. Fair value is derived from MKB's proprietary sharp book consensus — each sportsbook is individually devigged, then weighted by sharpness. The sharper the book, the more influence it has on fair value. Pinnacle, as the sharpest book, anchors the calculation.

When Market FV is active, you'll see two Recc. U columns: Conf. Adj. Recc. U and Std. Recc. U (see "FV Mode and Recc. U Columns" above for full detail).

Use this when: you want conservative, consensus-driven fair value that's been validated by the sharp market. Recommended for most users.

Model FV (Use with Caution)

Switches fair value to our proprietary probability model. Instead of asking "what does the sharp market think the true probability is?" it asks "what does our Monte Carlo simulation say?"

When Model FV is active:

• Fair Odds recalculate based on model probability
• EV % reflects model-vs-book edge rather than market-vs-book edge
• A single Model Recc. U column (blue) replaces the two Market FV columns
• Only rows where the model sees edge are shown

This can surface opportunities that the market hasn't fully priced in yet — but it can also surface false positives when our model is wrong. Model FV is inherently less conservative than Market FV.

The Model Edge preset filters for bets where our model sees positive EV. It does not switch your FV mode — you can leave the board on Market FV and use it purely as a filter, which is usually what you want. The Double Edge preset shows bets where both model and market agree — the highest-confidence opportunities. That one does pin FV Mode to Market while it's active, because it needs both numbers in their original form to compare them.

Use this when: you want to bet on our proprietary probability estimates, or you're looking for edge the market might be missing.

Market Average

Market Average is the simplest possible fair value: the average of every book's price on that exact line, exchanges included, with the books' margin left in (no de-vig). Only realistic prices go in: glitch prices our price checks flag, prices far off the rest of the market, and any book you exclude are all left out. A line also needs at least 3 independent sportsbooks (exchanges don't count toward the 3, and sister books count once); with fewer, Market Average shows "—" rather than a number.

Because the margin stays in, Market Average's fair odds come out shorter than a de-vigged fair value, so it shows more "edges" than Market FV, especially on one-sided props (anytime scorer, shots) where books carry a lot of margin.

Market Average is a reference view, not a recommendation. The edge column reads vs Avg % (how far the best price sits above the average) rather than EV %, and Recc. U shows "—" because there are no stakes. Nothing in Market Average is tracked, graded or posted, and the Parlay Optimizer keeps using Market FV while it is selected. For EV and staking, switch back to Market FV.

Use this when: you want a plain "is this better than everyone else?" benchmark without any weighting choices, or as a second opinion next to Market FV.

Single Book (Devigged)

Select any individual sportsbook (FD, DK, MG, etc.) to use that book's devigged odds as your fair value benchmark. The vig is removed from that book's odds first, then EV and Kelly recalculate using the resulting true probability. The Best Odds column shows you which other books beat it.

When a single book is selected:

• A single Recc. U vs. [BOOK] column (blue) appears in place of the standard columns
• Rows where that specific book has no odds posted are excluded entirely (not shown with placeholder data)

Use this when: you have access to a specific book and want to see which other books offer better prices relative to it — useful for line shopping or evaluating whether a particular book's lines are beatable.

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Custom De-Vig Weights (My Weights)

Market FV isn't a single book's opinion — it's a weighted average. Every book's price is devigged, then blended together, with sharper books counting for more. Pinnacle carries the most weight; a wide, slow book carries very little.

My Weights lets you set those weights yourself.

The 🎚️ My Weights button sits in the toolbar next to FV Mode. Open it and you get one row per book: a slider, a number box, the share of your total that book represents, and — in small grey text underneath — the weight we give it (MKB 19.2). Only the ratios matter, not the scale, so PN 40 / DK 20 and PN 4 / DK 2 are the same weight set.

Under the list, Clear all zeroes every book so you can build a set from scratch, and Reset to MKB baseline puts our published starting weights back. (Each appears only when it would actually do something — Reset is hidden when you're already on the baseline.)

Hit Apply My Weights and the board switches to your fair value.

What changes when you apply

Fair value recomputes from your weights — and because everything downstream is calculated from fair value, it all moves together: EV %, My Conf. U and My Std. U. Your recommended stake changes, not just the fair odds.

The value columns then bank into three colour-coded groups:

The vs MKB button (next to My Weights) collapses the blue and amber groups when you're done comparing and just want your own board. Your columns keep their pink edge either way, so it never stops being obvious whose numbers you're reading.

The two Δ columns are in points, not percentages. Δ FV is the difference in implied probability; Δ EV is the difference in EV. Green means your weights make the bet look better than ours do, red means worse. We use points because a percentage change in American odds means completely different things at −200 and +2000 — it flatters favourites and slanders longshots.

My Conf. U: the confidence adjustment follows your weights

This is the part people ask about, and it works the way you'd hope.

Conf. U is the Kelly stake scaled by weight coverage — the share of the total weight you assigned that actually posted a price on this bet. If you gave Pinnacle a big share and Pinnacle has a price here, coverage is high and the stake is close to the standard one. If the only books quoting this line are ones you weighted near zero, coverage is low and the stake shrinks.

So it really is more confident where your books are, and less where they aren't — same logic as our own confidence adjustment, just measured against your weight set instead of ours.

How it works with everything else

Exclude Books does a different job, and the two are meant to be used together. Excluding a book removes it from Best Odds — where you can actually place the bet. Weighting a book to zero removes it from fair value — what the bet is worth. You might exclude BallyBet because you don't have an account there, while still letting it inform fair value. Or the reverse.

Must Include Books is unchanged — it still hides rows where your required books haven't posted a price.

Preset filters run on the recomputed numbers. High Confidence filters on Conf. U, so with your weights applied it surfaces the bets your weighting rates highly — the preset thresholds stay the same, the numbers they're testing are yours.

Double Edge is the exception: it compares our model against our market fair value, so it pins FV Mode to Market and locks My Weights while it's active. Turn the preset off to get your weights back. Model Edge is unaffected — it filters on model EV, which your weights don't touch.

The Boost Calculator works on top. The boosted price becomes the best price, and EV and stake recompute against your fair value. The MKB columns re-price at the boosted number too, so the comparison stays apples-to-apples.

Sorting and range filters operate on your numbers. Filter EV % ≥ 3 with weights on and you get rows where your fair value says 3%, not ours.

Export CSV carries both — your columns are labelled My FV / My EV% / My Conf. U / My Std. U, and the MKB columns ride along whenever the comparison is showing.

Sparklines, VF History and the Line Tooltip are unaffected. Those show raw book prices and how they've moved, which is the same regardless of how you weight them.

Parlay HQ prices legs at our market fair value, not yours. Legs you add while your weights are on keep working normally, but the parlay's combined fair value uses MKB's number. Worth knowing so the two don't look like they disagree.

Mobile works the same. The button is in the mobile toolbar, and the expanded card carries the same three groups stacked instead of side by side.

Saving a weight set — and per-market weights

Weights save with the rest of your setup through the normal Save button. The saved set includes your weights, whether the MKB comparison was showing, plus everything a saved filter normally holds — preset, column filters, sort order, excluded books.

This is how you get different weights for different markets. Weights apply to the whole board while they're active, but a saved filter can pair a weight set with a market filter. So:

1. Filter the Market column to player_goals
2. Set the weights you want for goal scorers
3. Save it as "ATGS — my weights"

Loading that filter later restores both at once — goal-scorer rows, priced your way. Save a different pair for shots on goal with different weights and switch between them from the Load menu. Because saved filters live on your account rather than the device, a set you build on your laptop opens the same way on your phone.

Things worth watching

"Prices N of M rows." The panel shows, live as you drag sliders, how many rows on today's board your weights can actually price. A row needs at least one book you gave weight to. Weight only two books and most of the board goes blank — that's the maths being honest, not a bug, but the counter is there so you see it before you apply rather than after.

The baseline won't reproduce our board exactly. The sliders open on our published starting weights, but our live board also tunes weights per market and per line range. Even sitting on the baseline, your number can differ slightly from ours. The MKB columns show you by exactly how much — which is a reasonable way to see where our per-market tuning is doing work.

Examples to try

• Sharp-only. Clear all, then weight Pinnacle 40, Circa 20, BetOnline 10, Bovada 10 and nothing else. You'll see the board tighten up considerably and a lot of rows drop out — a fast way to find bets the sharpest books agree are live.
• Books you actually have. Weight the books you can bet, zero the rest. Fair value now reflects the market you can reach.
• Turn Circa on. Give Circa real weight and watch the Δ columns on the markets where it posts.
• Goal scorers and shots on goal are different markets. Anytime goal scorer is a longshot market with a thin book list; shots on goal is quoted almost everywhere. Filter Market to player_goals, build a weight set around the books that actually post scorer prices, and save it. Keep a separate, broader set for SOG.

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Boost Calculator

The Boost button opens a calculator with three modes: Boost, Risk-Free, and Bonus Bet. Each mode recalculates EV and Recc. U to reflect the specific promotion you're evaluating.

Mode 1: Boost

Use this when a sportsbook is running a profit boost on a specific bet type.

1. Select your Boost Book — the book running the promotion
2. Select your Boost % — quick presets: 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 33%, 35%, 50%, 100%. Or enter any custom percentage (1–500%)
3. The Best Odds column updates to show the boosted odds from that book, and EV % and Recc. U recalculate automatically

Example: FanDuel is running a 30% profit boost on hockey player props. You activate FD + 30% in the Boost Calculator. Now any bet you'd normally place at FD odds gets shown with the post-boost payout — so you can see exactly how much edge the boost adds.

When boost is active, the button highlights in yellow and shows your current settings (e.g., "FD +30%"). Click "Clear" to reset.

Mode 2: Risk-Free

Use this when a sportsbook offers a risk-free or insured bet — if your bet loses, you get bonus bets back.

1. Select the book offering the promotion
2. Set the Insured Amount — how much of your wager the book returns as bonus bets if you lose (25%, 50%, 75%, or 100%)
3. Set the Est. Bonus Bet Conversion Rate — your estimate of how much real money you'll extract per dollar of bonus bets (75% is a common benchmark)
4. EV % and Recc. U recalculate to reflect the reduced downside — odds stay the same, but since losing costs less, every bet becomes more valuable

When risk-free is active, the button highlights in green. The EV and Recc. U columns get green headers and borders so you can clearly see the adjusted values.

Mode 3: Bonus Bet

Use this when you have a bonus bet (free bet) to place and want to find the best play to maximize your return.

1. Select the book where you have the bonus bet
2. That's it — no other settings needed

How bonus bets work: Unlike regular bets, bonus bets only pay the profit — the stake is not returned. The EV % column becomes Conv % (Conversion %) — your expected return per dollar of bonus bet. Focus on plays in the +200 to +400 odds range with the highest Conv % (typically 65–80% conversion). Longer odds show higher Conv % on paper, but the variance makes them impractical.

When bonus bet is active, the button highlights in purple with purple column headers and borders.

Note for all modes: If you have the selected book in your Exclude Books list, the promotion will not apply — the tool will warn you inside the panel. Remove the book from exclusions first, or clear the promotion.

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Saved Filters

The Save and Load buttons let you save your current filter configuration to your account and reload it instantly — on any device, any browser, any time.

Saving a Filter Set

Once you have filters configured the way you like — a preset, FV mode, column filters, boost settings, sort order, or any combination — click Save. A small panel opens where you give the set a name (e.g., "Goals Over", "Model Edge SOG", "DK Boost 33%"). Hit Save Filters and it's stored to your account.

What gets saved:

• Active preset (e.g., High Confidence, Double Edge)
• FV Mode (Market, Model, or a specific book)
• All column filters (market type, side, EV range, etc.)
• Sort column and direction
• Boost book and percentage (if active)
• Excluded books (if any — for cross-device persistence of your book exclusions)
• Must Include books (if any)

Loading a Saved Filter Set

Click Load to see all your saved filter sets. Each entry shows a short summary of what's in it (preset, FV mode, number of column filters, boost). Click any entry to apply it instantly — all settings restore exactly as you saved them.

To permanently delete a saved set, click the trash icon next to it. A confirmation bar will appear — click Delete to confirm or Cancel to go back. This prevents accidental deletions.

Good Uses for Saved Filters

• Your daily starting point — save your preferred preset + sort so you don't have to reset it every session
• Book-specific views — e.g., "PN Devigged" saves FV mode set to Pinnacle so you can quickly check your edge against PN lines
• Specific market research — save a filter set for a particular market type (e.g., Goals Over, SOG Under) you return to frequently
• Boost sessions — save a filter set with your active boost book and percentage so you can quickly re-apply it when a promotion is live

Saved filters are tied to your MKB account, so they follow you across devices.

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Customize Books

The 📚 Customize Books button (in the toolbar row) gives you full control over which sportsbook columns appear in the Value Finder table, and in what order.

Hide my excluded books. At the top of the panel, one click hides every book you've excluded in Exclude Books. The line above it says the difference in short: Customize = which columns you see; Exclude = which books can be best book and drive EV/stakes. Works the same on mobile.

Why Customize?

With 21 sportsbooks now tracked, the table can get wide. If you only care about a handful of books, you can hide the rest to reduce scrolling. And if you always check FanDuel first, you can drag it to position #1 so it's the leftmost book column.

How It Works

1. Click 📚 Customize Books to open the panel
2. Show/Hide books: Toggle visibility for individual books by clicking their badge. Books are grouped by category — Sharp, Major US, Regional US, Hard Rock, Offshore, Exchanges, and Display Only — so you can quickly find what you need
3. Reorder books: Drag any visible book up or down in the reorder list. Position 1 is the leftmost column in the table
4. Use All, None, or Reset to quickly adjust visibility. Reset restores both the default visibility and default column order

The button shows an active state with a count badge (e.g., "📚 Customize Books 15/21") when your configuration differs from the default.

What It Affects

• Desktop table: Book odds columns are filtered and reordered to match your preferences
• Mobile cards: The "All Sportsbooks" section in each card shows only your visible books, in your chosen order
• No effect on calculations: Fair value, EV %, Best Book, and Kelly are all unaffected. This is purely a display preference

Persistence

Your book visibility and order preferences automatically persist in your browser's local storage, per sport. So your NHL preferences won't affect your NBA or MLB setup, and they're remembered across sessions on the same device.

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Exclude Books

The Exclude Books button (in the toolbar row) lets you remove specific sportsbooks from the Best Book calculation.

Exclude books I've hidden. At the top of the dropdown, one click also excludes every book you've hidden in Customize Books, so a book you've hidden can't quietly become your best book or drive EV and stakes. Hiding a column on its own only changes what you see. Works the same on mobile.

Why Would You Exclude a Book?

The most common reason: you don't have an account at a specific book, or a book has drastically limited your account. If DraftKings has limited you but the Value Finder keeps surfacing DK as the Best Book, your Best Book column becomes meaningless for you — you can't actually place those bets. Excluding DK forces the tool to find the next-best available book you actually have access to.

How It Works

1. Click Exclude Books to open the checklist dropdown
2. Check any books you want to exclude (you can exclude multiple)
3. The Best Book, Best Odds, EV %, and Recc. U columns all recalculate instantly using the next-best available book from the remaining unexcluded books
4. The button turns active and shows a red count badge while any books are excluded

Important: This only affects which book appears as Best Book and the EV/Kelly calculations. The individual book odds columns still show all books, including excluded ones. Fair value (the market consensus) is not changed — only the "best available to you" comparison changes.

Persistence

Excluded books automatically persist — they're saved in your browser's local storage so they're still excluded when you close and reopen the tab, no action required.

For cross-device persistence, include excluded books in a Saved Filter. Loading that saved set will restore your exclusions on any device.

To reset, open the dropdown and click Clear all, or uncheck books individually.

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Must Include Books

The Must Include button (in the toolbar row, next to Exclude Books) is the complement to Exclude Books. Instead of removing books from consideration, it filters the table to only show rows where all of your selected books have posted odds on that specific prop.

Why Would You Use Must Include?

The most common reason: you want to bet at a specific book and only see opportunities that book is actively pricing — not just the best odds across all books. If you only want to bet at FanDuel today, filtering with Must Include FD means you'll only see rows where FD has odds posted. No surprises when you go to place the bet and the book isn't offering it.

Another use case: you trust certain books as sharp signals for specific markets. If you only want to bet goal props where Pinnacle and DraftKings have both weighed in, Must Include PN + DK enforces that — any goal line neither book has priced yet disappears from view.

How It Works

1. Click Must Include to open the checklist dropdown
2. Check any books you require to have odds (you can select multiple)
3. The table instantly filters to only show rows where every selected book has posted odds for that prop — any row missing odds at any of your selected books is hidden
4. The button turns active and shows a green count badge while any books are selected

Important: Must Include is purely a visibility filter — it doesn't change EV calculations, fair value, or which book appears as Best Book. It just hides rows that don't meet your availability requirement.

Difference from Exclude Books

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Unit Size Input

The Unit $ input in the toolbar lets you set your unit size in dollars. Once set, the Kelly recommendation columns (which normally show in units) will also display the dollar amounts. Enter your unit size (e.g., $100), and the tool does the math for you.

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Parlay HQ

Parlay HQ is a floating widget available on every tab in the suite — your one-stop shop for building and optimizing parlays. It has two tabs: Build (manually pick your legs) and Optimize (let the math find the best combinations for you).

Adding Legs

There are two ways to add legs to your parlay:

1. From the Value Finder table — Click the + button on any row (or tap "Add to Parlay" on mobile) to add that opportunity as a leg.
2. From the Player Panel — Open any player's details panel (by clicking their name from any tab), scroll to the All Props section at the bottom, and click the + button next to any prop. This lets you research a player in Game View or Projections, open their panel to review their matchup data, then add props to your parlay without leaving the panel.

When a prop is already in your parlay, the button turns green with a ✓ — click it again to remove. Parlay HQ appears at the bottom of the screen showing your selected legs, combined parlay odds, and total implied probability.

You can add between 2 and 6 legs. SGP conflict detection is built in — if two legs are from the same game and would conflict (e.g., the same player Over and Under on the same market), the tool flags it.

The Parlay Optimizer

Instead of manually picking legs, the Optimize tab does the math for you. Switch to the Optimize tab inside Parlay HQ to have it automatically find the best parlay combinations from the current Value Finder data.

How it works:

1. Select your Parlay Book — the book you'll place the parlay at (e.g., FD, DK)
2. Choose your number of legs (2–6)
3. Optionally apply a Boost % or switch to Risk-Free mode if your book is offering a parlay promotion
4. Click Find Best Parlays

The optimizer evaluates all valid combinations of legs from your filtered data, calculates the combined parlay odds at your selected book, applies any boost or risk-free adjustment, and ranks results by recommended units. It shows you the top +EV parlays with:

• Combined parlay odds (pre-boost and post-boost if applicable)
• Total EV %
• Recommended units (Kelly-sized at the adjusted price when a boost or risk-free promo is active)
• Individual leg details — player, market, side, line, and the game

Click any result card to expand it and see full details for each leg, plus a grid of what the parlay odds would be at every other book — with green highlights on books offering better prices than your selected book.

Targets: Bet Size and Odds Range

Got a boost with a max bet, or a book that limits you? The optional Targets row tells the optimizer what you can actually bet, so it stops handing you parlays sized for a stake you can't place.

• Unit size — the stake you can place, in units. A $10-max boost is 0.1u if your unit is $100 (if you've set your unit size, the hint under the box does the conversion for you).
• Floor % — a parlay only qualifies if its recommended stake is at least this share of your unit size. It starts at 80%, so with a 0.1u unit size a parlay needs to be worth at least 0.08u. Anything worth more than your unit size still qualifies — you just bet your unit size. Each result shows both numbers, like recommended 0.13u → you bet 0.10u.
• Min odds / Max odds — keep the parlay price inside a range, e.g. +200 to +800. This is the price shown on the card, so it's the boosted price when a boost is on.

With a unit size set, results are ranked by expected profit at the stake you actually place, not by recommended units. Why the floor matters: betting a little less than the recommendation is fine, but putting your whole boost on a parlay the math says is only worth half of it means betting more on a long shot than its edge supports.

Example: your book offers a 50% boost on a 3-leg anytime goalscorer parlay, max bet $10, and your unit is $100. Enter 0.1 as your unit size, leave the floor at 80%, select the boost, and run it. You get the parlays that put that $10 to work best — and none that are only worth $6 of it.

Leave all three boxes blank and the optimizer works exactly as it always has. If nothing fits your targets, it tells you why — no parlay is worth enough for your floor, or none lands in your odds range — so you know to lower the floor or unit size, widen the odds, or change the number of legs.

Respects Your Filters

The optimizer works with whatever filters you already have active — column filters, preset filters, FV mode, excluded books, must-include books, and mobile filters all carry through. If you've filtered to "Goals Overs on FanDuel games only," the optimizer only considers those rows.

Smart Candidate Selection

The optimizer dynamically scales how many candidates it evaluates based on the number of legs you select:

• 2-leg parlays evaluate up to 18,000 candidates
• 3-leg parlays evaluate up to 1,000
• Higher leg counts scale down to keep evaluation fast

When your dataset is small (under 200 rows) or you have a boost or risk-free promo active, the optimizer relaxes its pre-filter and considers all rows with valid odds — not just those that are already +EV on their own. This is important because a boost or risk-free adjustment can turn a marginally -EV combination into a strong +EV parlay.

Best Price on Book Toggle

Check the "Best price on book" toggle to filter results to only show parlays where your selected book has the best (or tied-best) odds compared to all other books. This prevents the optimizer from surfacing parlays that look good on your book but are actually better priced somewhere else.

Lock Legs

There are two ways to lock legs:

1. Search and lock — use the Lock a Leg search box at the top of the optimizer. Type a player name or market to search through your current filtered data, then click + Lock to pin that leg.
2. Lock from results — after running the optimizer, click the 🔒 icon next to any leg in the results to lock it for your next run.

Locked legs are always included in every parlay — the optimizer just fills the remaining slots with the best available options.

Exclude Legs

Don't like a specific player or market in your results? Click the X next to any leg in an expanded result card to exclude that player/market combination from future optimizer runs. Excluded legs appear in a list above the results with + restore buttons, and you can Clear All to start fresh. The optimizer recalculates automatically without the excluded legs.

Player Details from Optimizer Results

Player names in optimizer results work just like they do in the Value Finder table — hover (desktop) to see the quick tooltip with projections and matchup data, and click to open the full Player Details panel. On mobile, first tap shows the tooltip; tap "View Full Details" to open the full panel. This applies to both the Build tab (betslip legs) and the Optimize tab.

Other Books Comparison Grid

At the bottom of each expanded result card, a grid shows the parlay odds at every other book — so you can gut-check whether your selected book truly has the best price. Books offering better odds than your selected book are highlighted in green for easy spotting.

When to Use the Optimizer

• You have a parlay boost — the optimizer is designed for this. Enter your boost %, and it finds the combinations that maximize your edge with the promotion
• You have a risk-free parlay promo — switch to Risk-Free mode, set your insured amount and conversion rate, and find parlays with the best adjusted EV
• You want the math to pick the best SGP — instead of guessing which legs combine well, let the optimizer find the highest +EV combinations
• You're doing a focused session — filter the Value Finder to a specific game, market type, or book, then optimize within that subset
• You want to lock a player you like — lock that leg and let the optimizer find the best complement

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Betslip Deep Linking

No more flipping between MKB and your sportsbook to retype a bet by hand. Betslip deep linking lets you jump straight from an opportunity into your book's betslip with the selection — or the whole parlay — already loaded.

Look for the ↗ arrow: it marks everything that supports one-tap betslip linking.

In the Value Finder Table

Every individual book odds cell with a ↗ is a live link. Tap FanDuel's price on a row and FanDuel opens with that exact bet sitting in your betslip. The Best Odds cell links through to whichever book has the best number. Books that don't support deep linking simply show their odds with no arrow.

In the Player Panel

Open any player's details and scroll to All Props — the best book badge next to each prop is a deep link. Research the matchup, then tap straight through to place the bet.

In Parlay HQ

Build a parlay and the Parlay Odds by Book grid gives every book its own Bet ↗ button — tap it to open that book with all of your legs pre-loaded as a parlay.

Same-game parlays? We can't price those yet, but you'll still get a betslip link for each book — tap through and let the sportsbook show you its live SGP odds.

In the Parlay Optimizer

Every optimizer result card has an Add parlay to [book] betslip ↗ link in its expanded view, and the Other Books chips are tappable too — so you can shop the same parlay across books and bet it in one tap.

Books & Devices

Major books — DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, ESPN BET, Hard Rock, Novig and more — support deep linking, and the list keeps growing. The ↗ arrow always tells you which ones are ready.

It works on desktop and mobile. On mobile, the link opens your sportsbook app (or its mobile site) with the bet waiting for you.

One reminder: deep links load your selections, but odds move fast. Always confirm the price and your stake inside the sportsbook before you place the bet.

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Tab 2: Game View

The Game View tab provides comprehensive game matchup context — player projections organized by game with goalie data, line assignments, and special teams context. It's great for getting a big-picture read on the slate before diving into individual opportunities.

Day Selector

At the top, switch between Today and Tomorrow to see projections for each date.

MamaBot AI Summary

Below the day selector, an expandable AI-generated summary covers key insights for the day's slate:

• Scoring environment analysis (high-scoring vs. defensive battles)
• Notable matchup mismatches
• Model edge highlights where our projections diverge from market totals
• Goalie advantage highlights

Click the header bar to expand or collapse. It's a great starting point before digging into individual games.

Game Summary Bar

A horizontally scrollable chip bar shows all games for the day. Each chip displays:

• Team matchup (e.g., TOR@BOS)
• Game time
• Model-projected team scores (heatmapped — green for high projected scoring, red for low)
• Model total vs. market over/under
• Edge indicator (colored if the model diverges significantly from the market)

Click any chip to jump directly to that game's card.

Game Cards

Each game renders as a card with:

Header:

• Team matchups with logos
• Game time
• Projected team scores (heatmapped)
• Model total vs. market O/U with edge badge (OVER/UNDER/NEUTRAL)
• Team offense and defense scores (color-coded badges)
• Monte Carlo team goal benchmarks (O2.5, O3.5, O4.5 probabilities)

Goalie Section:

• Starting goalie for each team
• GAA (Goals Against Average) — heatmapped, higher GAA = green (easier to score against)
• SV% (Save Percentage) — heatmapped, lower SV% = green (easier to score against)

Player Roster Tables: Each team's skaters organized by position group:

• Forwards — sorted by even-strength line assignment (L1 → L4)
• Defensemen — sorted by defensive pair
• Each player row shows:
  • Even-strength line (colored badge: green L1, blue L2, orange L3, gray L4)
  • Power play unit (PP1, PP2 badges)
  • Penalty kill unit (PK1, PK2 badges)
  • Matchup indicator (based on line boost factor)
  • Average TOI (heatmapped)
  • Projected Goals, Assists, Points, Shots on Goal (all heatmapped)

Click any player name to open the full Player Details Panel.

Using Game View Effectively

• Check goalies first — a backup goalie or a goalie with high GAA changes the scoring environment for an entire game
• Line assignments matter for hockey — a player on Line 1 with PP1 gets dramatically more ice time and scoring chances than a Line 3 player with no PP time
• Spot scoring environments — games where the model projects higher than the market total suggest overs on team totals or player counting stats
• Use the chip bar — quickly jump to games you care about without scrolling through the entire slate

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Tab 3: Projections

New this season: the table is split into Skaters and Goalies sub-tabs — the way the MLB suite splits batters from pitchers — rather than one table full of blanks. Two new columns sit alongside the line assignments: Use (the 🔑 Key / Contributor / Reserve usage tier, sortable) and In Net (the opposing starting goalie with his quality badge).

The Projections tab (labeled "Projections" in the tab bar) shows a comprehensive table of all player projections — the same data that powers the Value Finder tooltips and player panels, but in a sortable, filterable table where you can find players by stat and matchup.

Key Columns

Player Info:

• Player name, team, position, opponent

Core Projections:

• Proj Goals, Proj Assists, Proj Points, Proj Shots, Proj TOI

Monte Carlo Probabilities:

These columns show the model's estimated probability of hitting specific thresholds:

• 1+ G %, 2+ G %
• 2+ A %
• 3+ SOG %, 4+ SOG %
• 1+ P %

The thresholds align with common prop betting lines, making it easy to compare model probability to book implied probability.

Matchup Context:

• Matchup — overall matchup favorability symbol
• Line assignment and special teams role

Sorting and Filtering

Sort by any column header — most useful to sort by Monte Carlo columns to find players with the highest probability of hitting a specific threshold.

Filter by:

• Team — narrow to one or more teams
• Position — C, LW, RW, D
• Matchup rating

Search by player name using the search box.

Using Monte Carlo Probabilities

The Monte Carlo columns are powerful for prop betting. Compare them to book implied probabilities to find edge:

Example: You're considering Player X Anytime Goal Scorer

1. Find Player X in the table
2. Check "1+ G %" — if it shows 42%, that's roughly what the model estimates as the probability
3. Compare to the book's implied probability from the odds
4. If the book implies 35% but our model says 42%, that's potential model edge

Pro tip: Jump straight to the Value Finder → Model Edge preset to see these model-vs-book comparisons already calculated with EV and Kelly — the Projections tab is better for research and manual comparison.

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Tab 4: Special Markets

The Special Markets tab covers hockey-specific prop markets where our model provides unique insight: First Goal Scorer, Anytime Goal Scorer (ATGS), and 2+ Goals.

Market Selector

Each of the three goal markets now has two views, and the sub-tabs alternate between them:

The Feed views are card-based and built for scanning — the same layout as the MLB HR Feed and the NFL TD Feed, so if you use those these will feel immediately familiar. The table views are the dense, sortable versions you already know. Same data, two ways of reading it.

Anytime Goal Scorer and "Over 0.5 Goals" are the same bet. Books list them under different names; our pipeline merges them, so you always see the best price across both.

Table View Layout: Games and Players

Each market view groups players by game. Within each game section:

• Players are sorted by model probability for the outcome
• Each player row shows projection data (relevant stats, model probability) alongside any live betting opportunities from the Value Finder (book odds, EV%, Kelly)
• Line assignment and special teams context is shown

First Goal Scorer Specifically

First Goal Scorer is a unique market where line assignments, power play roles, and game context matter enormously. The model incorporates:

• Projected role and line assignment (Line 1 + PP1 players have the most scoring opportunities early)
• Season first goal rate and average first goal time
• Game-level context (which team is more likely to score first based on projected scoring)
• Home/away splits for first goal scoring
• Opponent first-goal-concede stats — how often does the opposing team give up the first goal, and how often is it to players on specific lines or PP units?

Hover over any player name in the First Goal tab to see a detailed tooltip with:

• Season rates: first goal %, first goal on PP rate, average FG time, home/away split
• Line context: what line and PP unit the player is on
• Matchup info: how often the opponent gives up the first goal overall, at home/away, to the player's line, and to their PP unit

How books settle First Goalscorer

Books count overtime but never the shootout. A game still 0-0 after overtime has no first goalscorer, so every first-goal pick loses.

Fliff is the exception: it counts regulation only. Fliff prices carry a small REG tag — tap or click it to read the rule — and a one-line rule note sits above the 1st Goal Feed and the First Goal Scorer tab. Our results grade each bet on its own book's rule. More on book rules in the Value Finders guide.

Anytime Goal Scorer and 2+ Goals

These views are excellent for identifying:

• Players with legitimate multi-goal upside being priced too low
• ATGS opportunities where line assignment + matchup create strong model edge
• High-projection players in favorable goalie matchups (backup goalies, high GAA)

Cross-reference any opportunity from this tab with the Value Finder to see the full market-based EV analysis.

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The Goal Feeds

Three card-based feeds — ATGS, 1st Goal and 2+ Goals — sitting alongside the table views inside Special Markets. If you use the MLB HR Feed or the NFL TD Feed, this is the same card, the same badges and the same filters, pointed at hockey.

Anatomy of a card

Top row — the verdict and the context

Under the name you get his team, the opponent, the projected opposing goalie with a quality badge and whether that start is confirmed, and the game time.

The four tiles

All four are heat-mapped against tonight's whole slate, not against fixed thresholds — so the colours mean the same thing on a two-game night as on a twelve-game night, and they do not change as you filter.

The record row. Under the tiles, every card shows the player's own record, with the sample behind every number:

• 1st Goal Feed — his first-goal record, with the games it's counted over.
• ATGS and 2+ Goals Feeds — a header like Goal record · 2025-26 · 88 GP · 49 goals, then four tiles, each with its sample: games with a goal (e.g. 35/88), games with 2+, goals per game, and the share of his goals scored on the power play. The 2+ Goals Feed puts the 2+ tile first.

A call-up with no NHL games yet shows No NHL games on record yet rather than a row of zeros. A player who has been traded shows no team on his card — that's by design, not a missing value.

Tap any card to expand it: matchup sub-scores, role and form, tonight's full projection, market detail, every book's price with betslip links, and a button through to the full player panel. In Role & Form, time on ice is labelled as a blend. Each feed adds its own detail:

• 1st Goal Feed — how he scores first (shot type: wrist, snap, slap, backhand, tip/deflection, and power play vs even strength), what the opponent concedes (first goals to his position group, to his line and on the power play), both teams' scores-first records, and when first goals typically come in the game.
• ATGS and 2+ Goals Feeds — his goal record season by season, plus a "season per game · GP" block with his shots on goal per game and PP1 share.

Day tabs

Each feed opens on the next slate and gives you a tab for the one after it — labelled Today / Tomorrow when there are games today, and Next Games / Up Next otherwise, so the tab never implies there is a game tonight when there isn't. The date sits on the tab, which is why the cards themselves show only the game time.

Frozen cards

Once a game starts — or a book pulls a line — the card stays on the board at its last captured price, dimmed and italicised. It is history, not a live bet, and it cannot be added to your betslip.

This is deliberate. On a slate with early and late games you can still look back at exactly how a player graded before puck drop: what the model said, what the market said, what the matchup looked like. Toggle 🔒 Hide frozen if you only want what is still bettable.

A card is frozen when the most recent pipeline run did not re-price it. Usually that means the game started, but it also catches suspended markets and scratched players.

Filtering and sorting

Search, eight sort keys, and a More filters drawer with probability, matchup and team-total thresholds, plus a season record ≥ slider that keeps only players whose own record clears the bar. The season-rate sort uses that same per-season record. Toggles for 🤖 Beats Model, 📊 Beats Market, ⚡ PP1, 1️⃣ Line 1, 💵 Priced, 🔥 Steaming, plus Usage, Game and Team multi-selects. Everything you set can be saved with Saved Filters and reloaded later, and the current view exports to CSV.

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Badge Glossary

Usage tier: 🔑 Key / Contributor / Reserve

The same badge the NFL suite uses, and it answers a question the line number cannot: how big is his role tonight? It is driven by projected fantasy points, not by his line.

That distinction does real work. On a recent slate:

• Nikolaj Ehlers skates on the third line — but he is on the top power-play unit and projects as one of the best goal bets on the board. He badges 🔑 Key.
• Alex Vlasic plays 21 minutes a night, more than almost any forward — but he is a shutdown defenceman projected at a 3% chance to score. He badges Reserve.

Minutes tell you who the coach trusts. The usage tier tells you who is likely to do something, which is the question a goal-scorer market is actually asking.

Goalie quality

Every surface that names a goalie now says what his save percentage means, read from the skater's point of view — so green is good for your bet:

Alongside it, ✅ CONF / ◐ LIKELY / ❔ UNCONF tells you whether that start is confirmed — which usually flips on game day, exactly when you are deciding.

If a goalie has not played yet this season we show no badge at all rather than guessing. A missing badge means "we do not know", never "he is beatable".

Line and power-play popovers

Hover any line badge to see that team's full lineup — all four forward lines, all three defence pairs, goalies and the injured list, with your player highlighted and power-play assignments marked. Hover any PP badge to see both power-play units instead.

This is the hockey equivalent of the NFL depth-chart hover, and it answers the question the card cannot: who is he actually on the ice with? A first-line winger between two checking forwards is a very different bet from one beside a superstar centre.

Available on the feed cards, in the player panel, and in the player tooltip on any Value Finder row.

The player panel also names the goalie a skater is facing — In net: 🥅 Swayman · 90.7% SV · SOLID · ❔ UNCONF — the same way the MLB panel names the opposing pitcher.

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Tab 5: DvP HQ

Defence-vs-Position headquarters. Use it to work backwards: instead of starting from a player and asking whether the matchup is good, start from the softest units on the slate and see who is playing them.

It is LINE-level, not just forwards and defence

Most defence-vs-position data stops at "forwards" and "defencemen", which is too coarse to bet on — conceding to a fourth line and conceding to a first line are completely different facts, and the power play is a different game again. The league grid has nine unit columns:

Penalty kill is deliberately excluded — it is not a scoring context.

Every column header sorts. First click on a unit puts the softest defences first, which is usually what you want; click again to reverse. Teams with no data for that column always sort last, so a blank never masquerades as "toughest in the league".

The lenses

Overall is a genuine composite rather than a rename of Goals, and the difference does work: a unit can rank 29th in goals conceded while ranking 4th in assists and 5th in shots — stingy about finishing, generous about everything else. Goals-only would call that elite; Overall correctly reads it as middling.

The number beside each player is projected DraftKings points on the Overall lens (the best single all-round production measure) and the matching projection on every other lens.

Day tabs

Like the feeds, DvP HQ shows one slate at a time and gives you a tab for the next one — Today / Tomorrow, or Next Games / Up Next when there are no games today.

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Tab 6: Fantasy HQ

Projected DraftKings points for every skater and goalie on the slate, with salaries, value per $1,000, and boom/bust ranges from the same Monte Carlo that drives the goal markets.

• DraftKings scoring by default, with custom scoring if you play elsewhere or want to see the board through a different lens.
• Boom/bust comes from a correlated simulation — goals, assists and shots rise together when a line is rolling — so the ceilings are realistic rather than artificially narrow.
• Salaries are blank rather than guessed when DraftKings has not posted a classic slate for that date.
• Day tabs on the daily view, same as the feeds and DvP HQ. Season mode has no slate, so it has no tabs.

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Tab 7: Game Logs

The Game Logs tab shows historical player performance for the current season — every game, with full stat lines. This is your tool for verifying recent form and validating projections against actual results.

What You'll See

For each game log entry:

• Date, opponent, home/away
• Goals, Assists, Points
• Shots on Goal
• Time on Ice
• Power play stats
• Plus/minus

Filters

• Player name search — type any part of a name
• Team — filter to a specific team's players
• Position — C, LW, RW, D
• Date range — look at specific periods (last 7 days, last 30 days, or custom)

Results load progressively — scroll down to load more.

Using Game Logs

• Verify recent form — is a player on a hot streak or in a slump? Has their ice time changed recently?
• Check vs opponent — how did this player perform in previous meetings this season?
• Home/away splits — some players perform very differently based on location
• Validate projections — do our model projections align with what you see in recent games?
• Identify role changes — a sudden jump or drop in TOI can signal a line promotion/demotion the model might not have fully incorporated yet

Pro tip: Cross-reference game logs with the hit rate data in player tooltips. If a player has been consistently hitting a threshold in recent games AND our model projects them favorably AND the market offers +EV odds, that's a strong multi-signal opportunity.

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Common Scenarios

New to the suite? Here are the most common things people want to do and exactly how to accomplish them.

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"I want to see the best bets available right now"

1. Go to the Value Finder tab
2. Make sure FV Mode is set to Market FV (the default)
3. Click the High Confidence preset
4. The table is already sorted by Conf. Adj. Recc. U — highest value at the top
5. Hover over any player name for a quick sanity check (model projection + hit rate)

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"I only have access to certain books — I want to ignore the ones I can't use"

1. Click Exclude Books in the toolbar
2. Check every book you don't have an account at (e.g., PN, RB, BV)
3. Best Book, EV %, and Recc. U instantly recalculate to show your next-best available option
4. To make this permanent: click Save, name it something like "My Books", and Load it at the start of each session. It also auto-saves in your browser so it'll still be set when you come back.

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"A sportsbook is running a profit boost — how do I evaluate it?"

1. Click Boost in the toolbar
2. Make sure you're on the Boost tab
3. Select the book running the promotion (e.g., DK)
4. Select the boost percentage (e.g., 33%)
5. Every row now shows the post-boost EV and Recc. U for DK — positive EV rows are worth considering
6. When you're done, click Clear to return to normal

"A sportsbook is offering a risk-free or insured bet — how do I evaluate it?"

1. Click Boost in the toolbar and switch to the Risk-Free tab
2. Select the book offering the promo
3. Set the Insured Amount (how much of your wager is returned as bonus bets if you lose — usually 100%)
4. Set the Est. Conversion Rate (how much real money you expect per dollar of bonus bets — 75% is typical)
5. EV and Recc. U recalculate to show the value with reduced downside
6. Every bet becomes more valuable because losing costs less — look for the highest EV plays

"I have a bonus bet / free bet — what should I use it on?"

1. Click Boost in the toolbar and switch to the Bonus Bet tab
2. Select the book where you have the bonus bet
3. The EV % column becomes Conv % — your expected return per dollar of bonus bet
4. Sort by Conv % and look for plays in the +200 to +400 odds range — this is the sweet spot (65–80% conversion)
5. Avoid using bonus bets on heavy favorites (poor conversion) or extreme longshots (high variance)

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"I want to find bets where Pinnacle's devigged odds say there's value at other books"

1. Click FV Mode in the toolbar
2. Select PN under "Single Book (Devigged)"
3. The table now shows EV and Recc. U calculated using Pinnacle's devigged odds as fair value
4. Only rows where Pinnacle has posted odds are shown — these are the most liquid, sharp-market-confirmed lines
5. Sort by Recc. U to find the largest edges relative to PN

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"I want to see what our model thinks, not just the market"

1. Click FV Mode and select Model FV
2. Or click the Model Edge preset to filter for rows where the model sees positive EV
3. For the gold standard: try Double Edge — this shows only bets where BOTH the market AND the model agree there's edge

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"I want to research a specific player before betting"

1. In the Value Finder tab, type the player's name in the player search/filter
2. Hover over their name to see a quick tooltip: model probability, hit rate, matchup score
3. Click their name to open the full Player Details Panel: full projections, Monte Carlo probabilities, season hit rates
4. Switch to the Game View tab to see them in context of their game — check their line assignment, PP unit, and opposing goalie
5. Switch to Game Logs to check their recent form

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"I want to check if a prop has been hitting lately before I bet it"

1. Find the opportunity in the Value Finder
2. Hover over the Line value (desktop) or tap the line value (mobile) to open the line breakdown
3. Click VF History inside that panel
4. A table shows every time this exact prop (same player, market, line, side) appeared in the VF over the past 10 days, with the result (Hit / Miss / DNP / Pending)

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"I want to find goal scoring opportunities against weak goalies"

1. Go to the Game View tab
2. Look at the goalie info in each game card header — focus on games where the opposing goalie has high GAA (green-highlighted = easy to score against) or low SV% (also green)
3. Note which forwards are on Line 1 + PP1 for the team facing the weak goalie
4. Switch to the Value Finder tab and filter by those players' names or by Game
5. Check the Goals Over and ATGS opportunities for those players

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"I want to save my setup so I don't have to reconfigure every session"

1. Set everything up the way you like: preset, FV mode, excluded books, sort, any column filters
2. Click Save and give it a name (e.g., "Daily Setup", "Goals Over")
3. Next session, click Load and select it — everything restores instantly
4. Saved filters sync to your MKB account, so they work on any device

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"I want context on which games are good scoring environments today"

1. Go to the Game View tab
2. Read the MamaBot AI summary at the top for a slate overview
3. Check the Game Summary Bar chips — each shows the model's projected total vs the market O/U. Chips with OVER badges = model projects more scoring than the market expects
4. Look at goalie matchups — backup goalies or high-GAA starters create scoring opportunities
5. Click any chip to jump to that game's card and see player projections by team

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Putting It All Together: A Full Workflow

Here's how to combine the tabs into a complete pre-bet research flow:

Step 1: Start with Game View

Open the Game View tab to get context on today's slate. Read the MamaBot AI summary. Note which games the model projects as high-scoring vs. defensive. Check goalie matchups — backup goalies and high GAA create scoring environments. Identify players on top lines with PP1 assignments.

Step 2: Check Player Projections

Switch to the Projections tab. Sort by the stat category you're interested in (e.g., 1+ G % or 2+ G %) to find players the model is high on. Note line assignments — PP1 forwards on Line 1 get the most ice time and scoring chances.

Step 3: Check Special Markets

If you're interested in goal scoring props, visit the Special Markets tab. Check First Goal Scorer for unique angles (tip-off advantage, first period scoring tendencies). Check ATGS and 2+ Goals for goal volume plays. The tooltip on First Goal gives you opponent first-goal-concede stats to validate the angle.

Step 4: Find Value Opportunities

Go to the Value Finder tab. Start with your preferred preset (High Confidence for conservative plays, or Model Edge / Double Edge for model-confirmed opportunities). In Market FV mode, sort by Conf. Adj. Recc. U to see the best-confidence plays.

Step 5: Validate the Opportunity

Hover over the player name in the Value Finder to see the quick tooltip — does the model projection support the bet? Is the hit rate positive? If both edge indicators are green, that's a strong multi-signal confirmation.

Click the player name to open the full Player Details Panel for a deeper look.

Step 6: Check Game Logs (Optional)

If you're on the fence, flip to Game Logs and look at recent performance. Is the player on a hot streak? Has their ice time changed? Are there any patterns worth noting?

Step 7: Check Sparklines Before Betting

Before placing, hover over the Best Odds value in the Value Finder to check the sparkline. Is the line moving in your favor or against you? Has there been a steam move recently that might mean the opportunity is disappearing?

Step 8: Execute

Place your bet at the Best Book shown, at the odds shown. If the odds have moved slightly since you loaded the table, recalculate your stake accordingly (or just hit Refresh to see the latest data).

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Quick Tips

Sort by Conf. Adj. Recc. U (in Market FV mode) — it's the most reliable single signal for prioritizing plays.

Use presets as shortcuts — High Confidence for bread-and-butter plays. Outlier Opportunities to find mispricings. Model Edge + Double Edge for model-validated plays.

FV Mode default is Market FV — don't change this unless you specifically want to evaluate model-vs-book opportunities. Model FV is more aggressive and less conservative.

Check goalies in Game View — a backup goalie or a goalie with high GAA changes the entire scoring environment. This is often the single biggest factor in NHL prop betting.

Line assignments are critical — a player promoted to Line 1 + PP1 gets dramatically more scoring opportunities. Check Game View for current assignments before betting.

Boost Calculator before promotions expire — check your book's app for active profit boosts and enter them in the Boost Calculator to see the real EV before deciding whether to use the boost.

Save your daily starting point — use Save to store your preferred preset, FV mode, and sort. Click Load at the start of each session to restore it instantly without reconfiguring from scratch.

Bookmark the suite URL — it lives at /dashboard/nhl-tool-suite. The tab you're on stays in the URL, so you can bookmark specific tabs too.

Refresh before betting — the tool auto-refreshes every ~2 minutes but always worth a manual refresh right before you bet to confirm the odds are still accurate.

Exclude the books you don't have — if you're limited at certain books, set up Exclude Books once and save it as a filter. Your Best Book and EV columns will always reflect what's actually available to you.

Use VF History before betting a repeating prop — if the same line has been surfacing for 4-5 days and keeps missing, that's worth knowing. Consistent recent hits + positive model edge + market EV is the strongest possible combination of signals.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What's the difference between the Value Finder and the Projections tab?

The Value Finder finds bets where the market odds are better than the market consensus fair value — it's purely about whether you're getting a good price relative to what the sharp market thinks. The Projections tab shows what our model estimates for each player, independent of market odds. They're complementary: Value Finder finds the mathematical edge, Projections provide the model context.

When should I use Model FV vs Market FV?

Market FV (default) is recommended for most users — it's the more conservative, battle-tested methodology. Model FV is useful when you specifically want to bet on our model's probability estimates rather than market consensus, or when looking for opportunities the market might be underpricing. Always treat Model FV as an additional signal, not a replacement for the market-based approach.

What does the matchup score mean?

It reflects how favorable the defensive matchup is for this player based on line boost factor — considering the opponent's defensive strength against this player's specific line assignment. Elite matchups mean the defense is weak against this player's type; Tough means the defense is strong.

How do line assignments affect projections?

Line assignments (L1-L4, PP1/PP2, PK1/PK2) are a major factor in NHL projections. A Line 1 forward with PP1 duty might average 20+ minutes of ice time, while a Line 4 forward might get 10 minutes. More ice time = more scoring opportunities. The model accounts for line assignments in all projections.

Why do goalies matter so much?

The starting goalie directly impacts the scoring environment for the entire game. A backup goalie or a goalie with high GAA means more goals are likely — which affects team totals, player goal props, and point props. Always check goalie info in Game View before betting.

How often does the data update?

The Value Finder updates every ~15 minutes during the day (6am–10pm EST), hourly overnight. Projections and game data update each morning before games and again when lineup/goalie news comes in. Game Logs update the day after each game.

Found an issue?

Email hilary@mama-knows-bets.com or DM via X or Discord. The suite is actively developed and we take bug reports seriously.

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