How To Use the NHL Tool Suite: A Complete Guide

Part of the Mama Knows Bets Education Series. See also: What is +EV Betting?, Bankroll Basics, Why Taking the Best Odds Matters, and How to Use the Value Finders Results Dashboard.

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Jump To

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What is the NHL Tool Suite?

The NHL Tool Suite is our unified NHL analysis platform — five interconnected tools in one place, designed to take you from "what does the market think?" all the way through "what does our model think?" and "how has a player been performing lately?"

Previous to the suite, you needed two separate tools for this: the NHL Value Finder for market-based +EV opportunities, and the NHL Projections Dashboard for model projections and game context. The suite combines everything under one roof, with seamless tab switching and shared data so both tools work together.

In simple terms: it's everything you need to find, validate, and track NHL betting opportunities, all in one place.

The Five Tabs

You can navigate between tabs by clicking the tab bar, and the URL updates automatically (e.g., ?tab=game-view). This means you can bookmark or share a specific tab directly.

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Navigating the Suite

The Header

At the top of every page you'll find:

• 🏒 NHL Tool Suite — the suite title, always visible
• 📖 How-To Guide — links to this article
• 📊 VF Results — links to the Value Finder Results Dashboard, where you can track historical performance of market-based opportunities
• 📈 Model Results — links to the Model Profitability Dashboard
• 📚 Book Key — a quick reference for all sportsbook abbreviations (PN = Pinnacle, FD = FanDuel, DK = DraftKings, etc.)
• Light/Dark toggle — switch themes at any time

On mobile, the links collapse into a "···" menu to keep the header clean.

The Tab Bar

The tab bar lives just below the header. Click any tab to switch — your position within the current tab is remembered so you don't lose your place if you switch and come back.

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Tab 1: Value Finder

The Value Finder is the core betting tool. It scans odds across all major sportsbooks, calculates fair value based on sharp book consensus, and shows you bets where you're getting better odds than the true probability suggests.

In simple terms: it finds bets where the math is on your side.

This tab is essentially the same as the standalone NHL Value Finder, but now lives inside the suite alongside all the supporting context tools. If you've used the Value Finder before, everything you know still applies — read on for the suite-specific additions.

Understanding the Columns

Player, Game & Bet Info

The left columns tell you what the bet is:

• Player — the player's name (click to open the full Player Details panel; hover for a quick tooltip)
• Game — the matchup (e.g., TOR@BOS)
• Time — game start time
• Market — the prop type (Goals, Assists, Points, Shots on Goal, etc.)
• Line — the line value (hover/tap for a full breakdown of all available lines for this player/market)
• Side — Over or Under

The Value Metrics (The Important Stuff)

These are the columns that tell you how much value exists in the bet.

• Best Book — the sportsbook(s) offering the best odds. This is where you should place your bet. If multiple books are tied, they all appear here.
• Best Odds — the American odds at that book (e.g., +360)
• Fair Odds — our calculated "true" odds (source depends on FV Mode — see below)
• EV % — Expected Value percentage — your mathematical edge on this bet
• Recc. U columns — recommended bet size in units. These columns change dynamically based on your selected FV Mode (see "FV Mode and Recc. U Columns" below)
• % vs Next — how much better the Best Book is vs the next closest book
• Coverage — how many books are offering odds on this market

Individual Book Odds

The remaining columns show odds at each specific book. Best Book(s) are highlighted in green. Hover any odds value to see a sparkline showing how that book's line has moved over the past 24 hours.

Book abbreviations:

• PN = Pinnacle (sharp book — primary fair value anchor)
• FD = FanDuel
• DK = DraftKings
• MG = BetMGM
• FN = Fanatics
• CZ = Caesars
• ES = ESPNBet / TheScore
• BB = BallyBet
• BR = BetRivers
• RK = Hard Rock
• BO = BetOnline
• RB = ReBet
• BV = Bovada
• FL = Fliff

Click 📚 Book Key in the header anytime for the full reference.

Deep Dive: EV % and Kelly Recommendations

EV % (Expected Value Percentage) tells you your mathematical edge. EV 5% means for every $100 bet long-term, you expect to profit $5. Higher EV = bigger edge.

FV Mode and Recc. U Columns

The Recc. U (recommended units) columns are dynamic — they update based on which FV Mode you have selected. Here's exactly what you'll see:

Market FV (default): Two columns appear:

• Conf. Adj. Recc. U — Kelly size scaled down based on how many (and which) books are reporting odds. If Pinnacle + 10 books are reporting, we're very confident. If only 2-3 soft books? Less confident. This column builds in a buffer so you don't over-bet on potentially unreliable fair values. This is the recommended column to sort by.
• Std. Recc. U — the pure Kelly math: Best Odds vs Market Fair Odds, quarter Kelly. Always ≥ Conf. Adj. Recc. U.

Model FV: A single blue column:

• Model Recc. U — Kelly calculated against model-derived fair value instead of market consensus

Book FV (any individual sportsbook): A single blue column:

• Recc. U vs. [BOOK] — Kelly calculated using that book's odds as the fair value benchmark. Only rows where that specific book has posted odds are shown — any row where the book has no odds is excluded entirely.

Double Edge preset: Three colored columns appear simultaneously:

• Model Recc. U (blue) — Kelly vs model fair value
• Market Recc. U (indigo) — Kelly vs market fair value
• Blend Recc. U (purple) — conservative blend of model and market Kelly using a harmonic mean, which penalizes disagreement between the two signals and pulls toward the lower value

My recommendation for most users: stick to Market FV and sort by Conf. Adj. Recc. U. It's the most conservative, most reliable metric.

For more on bankroll management and what your unit should be, read Bankroll Basics.

Preset Filters

Preset buttons at the top of the tab surface curated subsets of opportunities:

• High Confidence — opportunities with high Confidence Recc. U values; the cream of the crop
• Value Long Shots — higher-odds (+500 and above) opportunities with solid EV and coverage — lottery tickets with actual math behind them
• Outlier Opportunities — bets where one book is significantly out of line with the market (high % vs Next); potentially mispriced lines to grab before they correct
• Model Edge — filters for bets where our model sees positive EV, regardless of current FV mode. Use this to find spots where our model disagrees with the market in your favor
• Double Edge — opportunities where BOTH the market AND our model agree there's edge — the highest-confidence plays. This preset locks FV mode to Market and displays three simultaneous Recc. U columns: Model (blue), Market (indigo), and Blend (purple, a conservative harmonic mean that penalizes disagreement and pulls toward the lower signal). For best results, refresh the page before applying Double Edge to ensure all projection data has loaded.

Click any preset to apply it. Click again or Clear to reset.

Toolbar Buttons

The toolbar row above the table, left to right:

• Refresh — pulls the latest data. The tool also auto-refreshes every ~2 minutes.
• Export CSV — downloads all current opportunities as a CSV for your own analysis
• Player Info — toggles additional context columns (Position, Team, Line Assignment, PP Unit) directly in the table. Useful when you want to sort or filter by matchup context without opening the player panel. It's off by default intentionally — if you prefer a pure value-first experience and don't want matchup data swaying your decisions before the math does, leave it off. Turn it on when you want to dig into context.
• FV Mode — controls the fair value source (Market, Model, or a single book). See FV Mode below.
• Boost — applies a profit boost to a selected book's odds. See Boost Calculator below.
• Save / Load — save and restore named filter configurations. See Saved Filters below.
• Exclude Books — remove books you don't have access to from the Best Book calculation. See Exclude Books below.
• Must Include — filter to only show rows where all your selected books have posted odds. See Must Include Books below.
• Unit $ — set your unit size in dollars to see dollar amounts alongside unit recommendations.

Sorting and Filtering

Sort by clicking any column header. Click again to reverse.

Default recommendation: sort by Conf. Adj. Recc. U, high to low (in Market FV mode).

Filter using the filter row below each header:

• Player name is a free-text search
• Book, Market, Game, Side, and other dropdowns support multi-select — you can filter to multiple books or markets simultaneously
• Numeric columns (EV %, Recc. U, Best Odds, etc.) support min/max range filters — enter a minimum, a maximum, or both
• Filters stack across columns

Once you have a filter combination you use regularly, save it with the Save button so you can reload it instantly next session — see Saved Filters below.

Sparklines: Reading Line Movement

Hover over any odds value (or the Best Odds column) to see a sparkline showing how that line has moved over the past 24 hours. The y-axis shows implied probability (not odds directly) — higher on the chart means more likely, which means lower odds.

What to look for:

• A book's line sitting below the fair value (dotted) line — you're getting better than true odds
• Steam moves — sharp simultaneous drops across multiple books mean sharp money has hit; act quickly
• Lagging books — one book's line barely moving while others adjust could mean a pricing delay and an opportunity

Player Tooltips and Player Details Panel

Hover over any player name (desktop) or tap it (mobile) to see a quick tooltip with:

• Team, position, opponent
• Overall matchup score and line/PP assignment context
• Model-projected probability for hitting this line, shown as both a % and American odds, with a green/red edge indicator comparing our projection to the current book odds
• Season-to-date (STD) hit rate for this player at this specific line, with its own edge indicator

Click the player name to open the full Player Details Panel with:

• Full stat projections (Goals, Assists, Points, Shots on Goal, TOI)
• Monte Carlo probabilities for common thresholds (e.g., 1+ G %, 2+ G %, 2+ A %, 3+ SOG %)
• Complete season hit rate history across multiple thresholds
• Line assignment and special teams context

Line Tooltip

Hover over any value in the Line column to see all available lines for that player/market side by side. For each line and side you'll see: Best book, odds, EV%, Rec U, and coverage — all heatmapped so you can spot where the value is at a glance.

VF History

Inside the Line Tooltip (desktop) or line modal (mobile), you'll find a VF History button. Tap it to expand a table showing the last 10 days this exact prop appeared in the Value Finder.

For each historical appearance you'll see:

• Date — when this prop was surfaced
• Book — the Best Book on that day (shown as a colored badge)
• Odds — the odds it was available at (green = better than fair, red = worse)
• Recc. U — the Kelly recommendation on that day
• Result — Hit (green), Miss (red), DNP (yellow — player didn't play), or Pending (gray — result not yet recorded)

When to use it: VF History is a quick sanity check before betting. If a prop has been surfacing consistently for several days and has been hitting, that's additional signal. If it's been a persistent miss, it might be worth waiting or skipping.

Desktop vs. Mobile

Desktop: Full table with all columns. Scroll horizontally for individual book odds. Click headers to sort, use the filter row below headers.

Mobile: Card layout — each opportunity as a stacked card showing the key metrics. Tap the triangle to expand for all book odds. Use the search bar for quick player lookup, and the Filters toggle for sort/filter options. The mobile view fully reflects your FV mode selection: the card header badge and expanded details update to show the correct Recc. U label and value (Conf. Adj., Model, Recc. U vs. Book, or all three for Double Edge). Sort options in the mobile Filters panel also update to match the active mode.

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New: FV Mode Selector

The FV Mode button (in the toolbar row) controls what we use as "fair value" when calculating EV and Kelly recommendations.

Market FV (Default — Recommended)

The default mode. Fair value is derived from MKB's proprietary sharp book consensus — each sportsbook is individually devigged, then weighted by sharpness. The sharper the book, the more influence it has on fair value. Pinnacle, as the sharpest book, anchors the calculation.

When Market FV is active, you'll see two Recc. U columns: Conf. Adj. Recc. U and Std. Recc. U (see "FV Mode and Recc. U Columns" above for full detail).

Use this when: you want conservative, consensus-driven fair value that's been validated by the sharp market. Recommended for most users.

Model FV (Use with Caution)

Switches fair value to our proprietary probability model. Instead of asking "what does the sharp market think the true probability is?" it asks "what does our Monte Carlo simulation say?"

When Model FV is active:

• Fair Odds recalculate based on model probability
• EV % reflects model-vs-book edge rather than market-vs-book edge
• A single Model Recc. U column (blue) replaces the two Market FV columns
• Only rows where the model sees edge are shown

This can surface opportunities that the market hasn't fully priced in yet — but it can also surface false positives when our model is wrong. Model FV is inherently less conservative than Market FV.

The Model Edge preset automatically activates Model FV and filters for strong model edge. The Double Edge preset shows bets where both model and market agree — the highest-confidence opportunities.

Use this when: you want to bet on our proprietary probability estimates, or you're looking for edge the market might be missing.

Single Book (Devigged)

Select any individual sportsbook (FD, DK, MG, etc.) to use that book's devigged odds as your fair value benchmark. The vig is removed from that book's odds first, then EV and Kelly recalculate using the resulting true probability. The Best Odds column shows you which other books beat it.

When a single book is selected:

• A single Recc. U vs. [BOOK] column (blue) appears in place of the standard columns
• Rows where that specific book has no odds posted are excluded entirely (not shown with placeholder data)

Use this when: you have access to a specific book and want to see which other books offer better prices relative to it — useful for line shopping or evaluating whether a particular book's lines are beatable.

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New: Boost Calculator

The Boost button opens the Boost Calculator. Use this when a sportsbook is running a profit boost on a specific bet type and you want to see the real EV of the boosted odds.

How It Works

1. Select your Boost Book — the book running the promotion
2. Select your Boost % — quick presets: 25%, 30%, 33%, 35%, 50%, 100%. Or enter any custom percentage (1–500%)
3. The Best Odds column updates to show the boosted odds from that book, and EV % and Recc. U recalculate automatically

Example: FanDuel is running a 30% profit boost on hockey player props. You activate FD + 30% in the Boost Calculator. Now any bet you'd normally place at FD odds gets shown with the post-boost payout — so you can see exactly how much edge the boost adds.

When boost is active, the button highlights in yellow and shows your current settings (e.g., "FD +30%"). Click "Clear Boost" to reset.

Note: If you have the boosted book in your Exclude Books list, the boost will not apply — the tool will warn you inside the Boost panel. Remove the book from exclusions first, or clear the boost.

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New: Saved Filters

The Save and Load buttons let you save your current filter configuration to your account and reload it instantly — on any device, any browser, any time.

Saving a Filter Set

Once you have filters configured the way you like — a preset, FV mode, column filters, boost settings, sort order, or any combination — click Save. A small panel opens where you give the set a name (e.g., "Goals Over", "Model Edge SOG", "DK Boost 33%"). Hit Save Filters and it's stored to your account.

What gets saved:

• Active preset (e.g., High Confidence, Double Edge)
• FV Mode (Market, Model, or a specific book)
• All column filters (market type, side, EV range, etc.)
• Sort column and direction
• Boost book and percentage (if active)
• Excluded books (if any — for cross-device persistence of your book exclusions)
• Must Include books (if any)

Loading a Saved Filter Set

Click Load to see all your saved filter sets. Each entry shows a short summary of what's in it (preset, FV mode, number of column filters, boost). Click any entry to apply it instantly — all settings restore exactly as you saved them.

To permanently delete a saved set, click the trash icon next to it. A confirmation bar will appear — click Delete to confirm or Cancel to go back. This prevents accidental deletions.

Good Uses for Saved Filters

• Your daily starting point — save your preferred preset + sort so you don't have to reset it every session
• Book-specific views — e.g., "PN Devigged" saves FV mode set to Pinnacle so you can quickly check your edge against PN lines
• Specific market research — save a filter set for a particular market type (e.g., Goals Over, SOG Under) you return to frequently
• Boost sessions — save a filter set with your active boost book and percentage so you can quickly re-apply it when a promotion is live

Saved filters are tied to your MKB account, so they follow you across devices.

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New: Exclude Books

The Exclude Books button (in the toolbar row) lets you remove specific sportsbooks from the Best Book calculation.

Why Would You Exclude a Book?

The most common reason: you don't have an account at a specific book, or a book has drastically limited your account. If DraftKings has limited you but the Value Finder keeps surfacing DK as the Best Book, your Best Book column becomes meaningless for you — you can't actually place those bets. Excluding DK forces the tool to find the next-best available book you actually have access to.

How It Works

1. Click Exclude Books to open the checklist dropdown
2. Check any books you want to exclude (you can exclude multiple)
3. The Best Book, Best Odds, EV %, and Recc. U columns all recalculate instantly using the next-best available book from the remaining unexcluded books
4. The button turns active and shows a red count badge while any books are excluded

Important: This only affects which book appears as Best Book and the EV/Kelly calculations. The individual book odds columns still show all books, including excluded ones. Fair value (the market consensus) is not changed — only the "best available to you" comparison changes.

Persistence

Excluded books automatically persist — they're saved in your browser's local storage so they're still excluded when you close and reopen the tab, no action required.

For cross-device persistence, include excluded books in a Saved Filter. Loading that saved set will restore your exclusions on any device.

To reset, open the dropdown and click Clear all, or uncheck books individually.

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New: Must Include Books

The Must Include button (in the toolbar row, next to Exclude Books) is the complement to Exclude Books. Instead of removing books from consideration, it filters the table to only show rows where all of your selected books have posted odds on that specific prop.

Why Would You Use Must Include?

The most common reason: you want to bet at a specific book and only see opportunities that book is actively pricing — not just the best odds across all books. If you only want to bet at FanDuel today, filtering with Must Include FD means you'll only see rows where FD has odds posted. No surprises when you go to place the bet and the book isn't offering it.

Another use case: you trust certain books as sharp signals for specific markets. If you only want to bet goal props where Pinnacle and DraftKings have both weighed in, Must Include PN + DK enforces that — any goal line neither book has priced yet disappears from view.

How It Works

1. Click Must Include to open the checklist dropdown
2. Check any books you require to have odds (you can select multiple)
3. The table instantly filters to only show rows where every selected book has posted odds for that prop — any row missing odds at any of your selected books is hidden
4. The button turns active and shows a green count badge while any books are selected

Important: Must Include is purely a visibility filter — it doesn't change EV calculations, fair value, or which book appears as Best Book. It just hides rows that don't meet your availability requirement.

Difference from Exclude Books

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New: Unit Size Input

The Unit $ input in the toolbar lets you set your unit size in dollars. Once set, the Kelly recommendation columns (which normally show in units) will also display the dollar amounts. Enter your unit size (e.g., $100), and the tool does the math for you.

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Tab 2: Game View

The Game View tab provides comprehensive game matchup context — player projections organized by game with goalie data, line assignments, and special teams context. It's great for getting a big-picture read on the slate before diving into individual opportunities.

Day Selector

At the top, switch between Today and Tomorrow to see projections for each date.

MamaBot AI Summary

Below the day selector, an expandable AI-generated summary covers key insights for the day's slate:

• Scoring environment analysis (high-scoring vs. defensive battles)
• Notable matchup mismatches
• Model edge highlights where our projections diverge from market totals
• Goalie advantage highlights

Click the header bar to expand or collapse. It's a great starting point before digging into individual games.

Game Summary Bar

A horizontally scrollable chip bar shows all games for the day. Each chip displays:

• Team matchup (e.g., TOR@BOS)
• Game time
• Model-projected team scores (heatmapped — green for high projected scoring, red for low)
• Model total vs. market over/under
• Edge indicator (colored if the model diverges significantly from the market)

Click any chip to jump directly to that game's card.

Game Cards

Each game renders as a card with:

Header:

• Team matchups with logos
• Game time
• Projected team scores (heatmapped)
• Model total vs. market O/U with edge badge (OVER/UNDER/NEUTRAL)
• Team offense and defense scores (color-coded badges)
• Monte Carlo team goal benchmarks (O2.5, O3.5, O4.5 probabilities)

Goalie Section:

• Starting goalie for each team
• GAA (Goals Against Average) — heatmapped, higher GAA = green (easier to score against)
• SV% (Save Percentage) — heatmapped, lower SV% = green (easier to score against)

Player Roster Tables: Each team's skaters organized by position group:

• Forwards — sorted by even-strength line assignment (L1 → L4)
• Defensemen — sorted by defensive pair
• Each player row shows:
  • Even-strength line (colored badge: green L1, blue L2, orange L3, gray L4)
  • Power play unit (PP1, PP2 badges)
  • Penalty kill unit (PK1, PK2 badges)
  • Matchup indicator (based on line boost factor)
  • Average TOI (heatmapped)
  • Projected Goals, Assists, Points, Shots on Goal (all heatmapped)

Click any player name to open the full Player Details Panel.

Using Game View Effectively

• Check goalies first — a backup goalie or a goalie with high GAA changes the scoring environment for an entire game
• Line assignments matter for hockey — a player on Line 1 with PP1 gets dramatically more ice time and scoring chances than a Line 3 player with no PP time
• Spot scoring environments — games where the model projects higher than the market total suggest overs on team totals or player counting stats
• Use the chip bar — quickly jump to games you care about without scrolling through the entire slate

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Tab 3: Projections

The Projections tab (labeled "Projections" in the tab bar) shows a comprehensive table of all player projections — the same data that powers the Value Finder tooltips and player panels, but in a sortable, filterable table where you can find players by stat and matchup.

Key Columns

Player Info:

• Player name, team, position, opponent

Core Projections:

• Proj Goals, Proj Assists, Proj Points, Proj Shots, Proj TOI

Monte Carlo Probabilities:

These columns show the model's estimated probability of hitting specific thresholds:

• 1+ G %, 2+ G %
• 2+ A %
• 3+ SOG %, 4+ SOG %
• 1+ P %

The thresholds align with common prop betting lines, making it easy to compare model probability to book implied probability.

Matchup Context:

• Matchup — overall matchup favorability symbol
• Line assignment and special teams role

Sorting and Filtering

Sort by any column header — most useful to sort by Monte Carlo columns to find players with the highest probability of hitting a specific threshold.

Filter by:

• Team — narrow to one or more teams
• Position — C, LW, RW, D
• Matchup rating

Search by player name using the search box.

Using Monte Carlo Probabilities

The Monte Carlo columns are powerful for prop betting. Compare them to book implied probabilities to find edge:

Example: You're considering Player X Anytime Goal Scorer

1. Find Player X in the table
2. Check "1+ G %" — if it shows 42%, that's roughly what the model estimates as the probability
3. Compare to the book's implied probability from the odds
4. If the book implies 35% but our model says 42%, that's potential model edge

Pro tip: Jump straight to the Value Finder → Model Edge preset to see these model-vs-book comparisons already calculated with EV and Kelly — the Projections tab is better for research and manual comparison.

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Tab 4: Special Markets

The Special Markets tab covers hockey-specific prop markets where our model provides unique insight: First Goal Scorer, Anytime Goal Scorer (ATGS), and 2+ Goals.

Market Selector

At the top, toggle between:

• First Goal Scorer — who scores the first goal of the game?
• Anytime Goal Scorer (ATGS) — which players score at least one goal?
• 2+ Goals — which players score two or more goals?

Layout: Games and Players

Each market view groups players by game. Within each game section:

• Players are sorted by model probability for the outcome
• Each player row shows projection data (relevant stats, model probability) alongside any live betting opportunities from the Value Finder (book odds, EV%, Kelly)
• Line assignment and special teams context is shown

First Goal Scorer Specifically

First Goal Scorer is a unique market where line assignments, power play roles, and game context matter enormously. The model incorporates:

• Projected role and line assignment (Line 1 + PP1 players have the most scoring opportunities early)
• Season first goal rate and average first goal time
• Game-level context (which team is more likely to score first based on projected scoring)
• Home/away splits for first goal scoring
• Opponent first-goal-concede stats — how often does the opposing team give up the first goal, and how often is it to players on specific lines or PP units?

Hover over any player name in the First Goal tab to see a detailed tooltip with:

• Season rates: first goal %, first goal on PP rate, average FG time, home/away split
• Line context: what line and PP unit the player is on
• Matchup info: how often the opponent gives up the first goal overall, at home/away, to the player's line, and to their PP unit

Anytime Goal Scorer and 2+ Goals

These views are excellent for identifying:

• Players with legitimate multi-goal upside being priced too low
• ATGS opportunities where line assignment + matchup create strong model edge
• High-projection players in favorable goalie matchups (backup goalies, high GAA)

Cross-reference any opportunity from this tab with the Value Finder to see the full market-based EV analysis.

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Tab 5: Game Logs

The Game Logs tab shows historical player performance for the current season — every game, with full stat lines. This is your tool for verifying recent form and validating projections against actual results.

What You'll See

For each game log entry:

• Date, opponent, home/away
• Goals, Assists, Points
• Shots on Goal
• Time on Ice
• Power play stats
• Plus/minus

Filters

• Player name search — type any part of a name
• Team — filter to a specific team's players
• Position — C, LW, RW, D
• Date range — look at specific periods (last 7 days, last 30 days, or custom)

Results load progressively — scroll down to load more.

Using Game Logs

• Verify recent form — is a player on a hot streak or in a slump? Has their ice time changed recently?
• Check vs opponent — how did this player perform in previous meetings this season?
• Home/away splits — some players perform very differently based on location
• Validate projections — do our model projections align with what you see in recent games?
• Identify role changes — a sudden jump or drop in TOI can signal a line promotion/demotion the model might not have fully incorporated yet

Pro tip: Cross-reference game logs with the hit rate data in player tooltips. If a player has been consistently hitting a threshold in recent games AND our model projects them favorably AND the market offers +EV odds, that's a strong multi-signal opportunity.

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Common Scenarios

New to the suite? Here are the most common things people want to do and exactly how to accomplish them.

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"I want to see the best bets available right now"

1. Go to the Value Finder tab
2. Make sure FV Mode is set to Market FV (the default)
3. Click the High Confidence preset
4. The table is already sorted by Conf. Adj. Recc. U — highest value at the top
5. Hover over any player name for a quick sanity check (model projection + hit rate)

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"I only have access to certain books — I want to ignore the ones I can't use"

1. Click Exclude Books in the toolbar
2. Check every book you don't have an account at (e.g., PN, RB, BV)
3. Best Book, EV %, and Recc. U instantly recalculate to show your next-best available option
4. To make this permanent: click Save, name it something like "My Books", and Load it at the start of each session. It also auto-saves in your browser so it'll still be set when you come back.

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"A sportsbook is running a profit boost — how do I evaluate it?"

1. Click Boost in the toolbar
2. Select the book running the promotion (e.g., DK)
3. Select the boost percentage (e.g., 33%)
4. Every row now shows the post-boost EV and Recc. U for DK — positive EV rows are worth considering
5. When you're done, click Clear Boost to return to normal

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"I want to find bets where Pinnacle's devigged odds say there's value at other books"

1. Click FV Mode in the toolbar
2. Select PN under "Single Book (Devigged)"
3. The table now shows EV and Recc. U calculated using Pinnacle's devigged odds as fair value
4. Only rows where Pinnacle has posted odds are shown — these are the most liquid, sharp-market-confirmed lines
5. Sort by Recc. U to find the largest edges relative to PN

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"I want to see what our model thinks, not just the market"

1. Click FV Mode and select Model FV
2. Or click the Model Edge preset to filter for rows where the model sees positive EV
3. For the gold standard: try Double Edge — this shows only bets where BOTH the market AND the model agree there's edge

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"I want to research a specific player before betting"

1. In the Value Finder tab, type the player's name in the player search/filter
2. Hover over their name to see a quick tooltip: model probability, hit rate, matchup score
3. Click their name to open the full Player Details Panel: full projections, Monte Carlo probabilities, season hit rates
4. Switch to the Game View tab to see them in context of their game — check their line assignment, PP unit, and opposing goalie
5. Switch to Game Logs to check their recent form

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"I want to check if a prop has been hitting lately before I bet it"

1. Find the opportunity in the Value Finder
2. Hover over the Line value (desktop) or tap the line value (mobile) to open the line breakdown
3. Click VF History inside that panel
4. A table shows every time this exact prop (same player, market, line, side) appeared in the VF over the past 10 days, with the result (Hit / Miss / DNP / Pending)

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"I want to find goal scoring opportunities against weak goalies"

1. Go to the Game View tab
2. Look at the goalie info in each game card header — focus on games where the opposing goalie has high GAA (green-highlighted = easy to score against) or low SV% (also green)
3. Note which forwards are on Line 1 + PP1 for the team facing the weak goalie
4. Switch to the Value Finder tab and filter by those players' names or by Game
5. Check the Goals Over and ATGS opportunities for those players

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"I want to save my setup so I don't have to reconfigure every session"

1. Set everything up the way you like: preset, FV mode, excluded books, sort, any column filters
2. Click Save and give it a name (e.g., "Daily Setup", "Goals Over")
3. Next session, click Load and select it — everything restores instantly
4. Saved filters sync to your MKB account, so they work on any device

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"I want context on which games are good scoring environments today"

1. Go to the Game View tab
2. Read the MamaBot AI summary at the top for a slate overview
3. Check the Game Summary Bar chips — each shows the model's projected total vs the market O/U. Chips with OVER badges = model projects more scoring than the market expects
4. Look at goalie matchups — backup goalies or high-GAA starters create scoring opportunities
5. Click any chip to jump to that game's card and see player projections by team

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Putting It All Together: A Full Workflow

Here's how to combine the tabs into a complete pre-bet research flow:

Step 1: Start with Game View

Open the Game View tab to get context on today's slate. Read the MamaBot AI summary. Note which games the model projects as high-scoring vs. defensive. Check goalie matchups — backup goalies and high GAA create scoring environments. Identify players on top lines with PP1 assignments.

Step 2: Check Player Projections

Switch to the Projections tab. Sort by the stat category you're interested in (e.g., 1+ G % or 2+ G %) to find players the model is high on. Note line assignments — PP1 forwards on Line 1 get the most ice time and scoring chances.

Step 3: Check Special Markets

If you're interested in goal scoring props, visit the Special Markets tab. Check First Goal Scorer for unique angles (tip-off advantage, first period scoring tendencies). Check ATGS and 2+ Goals for goal volume plays. The tooltip on First Goal gives you opponent first-goal-concede stats to validate the angle.

Step 4: Find Value Opportunities

Go to the Value Finder tab. Start with your preferred preset (High Confidence for conservative plays, or Model Edge / Double Edge for model-confirmed opportunities). In Market FV mode, sort by Conf. Adj. Recc. U to see the best-confidence plays.

Step 5: Validate the Opportunity

Hover over the player name in the Value Finder to see the quick tooltip — does the model projection support the bet? Is the hit rate positive? If both edge indicators are green, that's a strong multi-signal confirmation.

Click the player name to open the full Player Details Panel for a deeper look.

Step 6: Check Game Logs (Optional)

If you're on the fence, flip to Game Logs and look at recent performance. Is the player on a hot streak? Has their ice time changed? Are there any patterns worth noting?

Step 7: Check Sparklines Before Betting

Before placing, hover over the Best Odds value in the Value Finder to check the sparkline. Is the line moving in your favor or against you? Has there been a steam move recently that might mean the opportunity is disappearing?

Step 8: Execute

Place your bet at the Best Book shown, at the odds shown. If the odds have moved slightly since you loaded the table, recalculate your stake accordingly (or just hit Refresh to see the latest data).

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Quick Tips

Sort by Conf. Adj. Recc. U (in Market FV mode) — it's the most reliable single signal for prioritizing plays.

Use presets as shortcuts — High Confidence for bread-and-butter plays. Outlier Opportunities to find mispricings. Model Edge + Double Edge for model-validated plays.

FV Mode default is Market FV — don't change this unless you specifically want to evaluate model-vs-book opportunities. Model FV is more aggressive and less conservative.

Check goalies in Game View — a backup goalie or a goalie with high GAA changes the entire scoring environment. This is often the single biggest factor in NHL prop betting.

Line assignments are critical — a player promoted to Line 1 + PP1 gets dramatically more scoring opportunities. Check Game View for current assignments before betting.

Boost Calculator before promotions expire — check your book's app for active profit boosts and enter them in the Boost Calculator to see the real EV before deciding whether to use the boost.

Save your daily starting point — use Save to store your preferred preset, FV mode, and sort. Click Load at the start of each session to restore it instantly without reconfiguring from scratch.

Bookmark the suite URL — it lives at /dashboard/nhl-tool-suite. The tab you're on stays in the URL, so you can bookmark specific tabs too.

Refresh before betting — the tool auto-refreshes every ~2 minutes but always worth a manual refresh right before you bet to confirm the odds are still accurate.

Exclude the books you don't have — if you're limited at certain books, set up Exclude Books once and save it as a filter. Your Best Book and EV columns will always reflect what's actually available to you.

Use VF History before betting a repeating prop — if the same line has been surfacing for 4-5 days and keeps missing, that's worth knowing. Consistent recent hits + positive model edge + market EV is the strongest possible combination of signals.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What's the difference between the Value Finder and the Projections tab?

The Value Finder finds bets where the market odds are better than the market consensus fair value — it's purely about whether you're getting a good price relative to what the sharp market thinks. The Projections tab shows what our model estimates for each player, independent of market odds. They're complementary: Value Finder finds the mathematical edge, Projections provide the model context.

When should I use Model FV vs Market FV?

Market FV (default) is recommended for most users — it's the more conservative, battle-tested methodology. Model FV is useful when you specifically want to bet on our model's probability estimates rather than market consensus, or when looking for opportunities the market might be underpricing. Always treat Model FV as an additional signal, not a replacement for the market-based approach.

What does the matchup score mean?

It reflects how favorable the defensive matchup is for this player based on line boost factor — considering the opponent's defensive strength against this player's specific line assignment. Elite matchups mean the defense is weak against this player's type; Tough means the defense is strong.

How do line assignments affect projections?

Line assignments (L1-L4, PP1/PP2, PK1/PK2) are a major factor in NHL projections. A Line 1 forward with PP1 duty might average 20+ minutes of ice time, while a Line 4 forward might get 10 minutes. More ice time = more scoring opportunities. The model accounts for line assignments in all projections.

Why do goalies matter so much?

The starting goalie directly impacts the scoring environment for the entire game. A backup goalie or a goalie with high GAA means more goals are likely — which affects team totals, player goal props, and point props. Always check goalie info in Game View before betting.

How often does the data update?

The Value Finder updates every ~15 minutes during the day (6am–10pm EST), hourly overnight. Projections and game data update each morning before games and again when lineup/goalie news comes in. Game Logs update the day after each game.

Found an issue?

Email hilary@mama-knows-bets.com or DM via X or Discord. The suite is actively developed and we take bug reports seriously.

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