Why Taking the Best Odds Matters: A Data-Driven Analysis
Taking suboptimal odds turned a +21u winning strategy into a -26u losing strategy. Same bets. Same analysis. 47.7 unit swing.
The Hidden Cost of "Good Enough" Odds
You've found a great betting opportunity. The fair value odds are +300, I'm recommending it at +360 on MGM, but you see it at +320 on DraftKings. Still positive EV, right? You take it anyway.
This decision, repeated over time, is costing you serious money.
The Simulation
I ran a Monte Carlo simulation to quantify exactly how much suboptimal odds cost you over time. Here's the setup:
Methodology
1,000 random bets with fair value odds between +120 and +1000 (Basically, a similar distribution to the way I bet, focused on longer odds bets with edge with occasional lower odds picks for boosts)
Best Book Odds: 2-10% edge on shorter odds, 5-15% on longshots (realistic sharp book range)
“Your Odds”: 5-20% worse than Best Book Odds - assuming someone is consistently taking the bets at worse odds than what is being recommended, but they are keeping their units THE SAME (note you could mitigate damage by rescaling your units per bet to an appropriate size, IF you still have a +EV bet)
Unit Sizing: Kelly Criterion using Quarter Kelly sizing, where 1 unit = 1% of bankroll
Outcomes: All bets hit at their fair value implied probability (law of averages)
This mirrors real betting conditions where you have solid +EV opportunities but sometimes settle for inferior odds.
The Results
After 1,000 bets using identical unit sizing and hitting at the same rate:
Best Book Odds Performance
Final Profit: +21.78 units, +21.8% ROI
“Your Odds” Performance
Final Profit: -25.93 units, -25.93% ROI
Same opportunities, worse execution = losses!
The Damage
Taking suboptimal odds turned a winning strategy into a losing one
Best Book made +21.78 units. Your Odds LOST 25.93 units. That's a 47.71 unit swing - nearly half your entire bankroll.
Why This Happens
Here's the key: small odds differences aren't small at all
Let me show you what I mean with a real example:
You identify a player prop with fair value of +300 (25% chance to hit).
Scenario 1: You take Best Book Odds at +360
You bet 0.5 units ($50 on a $10K bankroll)
When it hits, you profit $180
EV: 15.1%
This is a GOOD bet
Scenario 2: You take "Your Odds" at +320
You bet the same 0.5 units ($50)
When it hits, you profit $160
EV: 5.1%
This is an OK bet
You just gave away $20 in profit. On one bet.
"But it's just $20..." you think.
Here's where it gets brutal:
You make this same trade-off 1000 times over a season. Sometimes it's +360 vs +320. Sometimes it's +540 vs +480. Sometimes it's +185 vs +165.
Every. Single. Time. You're giving back 5-20% of your profit potential.
The simulation proves what happens:
Best Book: Small edges compound into +21.78 units over 1000 bets
Your Odds: Those same opportunities bleed into -25.93 units
Don’t let FOMO trick you into taking sub-optimal odds that will cost you long term! Make sure you’re taking the best possible odds you can get that are always HIGHER than the forecasted Fair Value odds. This is how you win long term!
The Real-World Impact
Let's put this in concrete terms:
If your bankroll is $10,000:
1 unit = $100 (1% of bankroll)
Best Book approach: +$2,178 profit (+21.8% ROI)
Your Odds approach: -$2,593 LOSS (-25.9% ROI)
Total swing: $4,771
You didn't just leave money on the table - you went from winner to loser. Same analysis, same opportunities, just worse odds execution.
But I Still Have Positive EV!
Not anymore. When you degrade your odds by 5-20% every bet, that positive EV evaporates.
The simulation showed Your Odds lost money while Best Book won. Taking suboptimal odds doesn't just reduce profits - it can turn winners into losers.
The Fix: Line Shopping as Non-Negotiable
Here's what winners do:
Have accounts at multiple books (as many as are allowed in your state - having 4+ books is ideal!)
Never settle for "good enough" if better exists!
Use odds comparison tools (like our Value Finder! Or any other odds screen or line shopping tool)
Be patient, and don’t get FOMO! It’s better to wait for the next profitable opportunity to come around then to invest precious resources into a bet that has lost its edge.
Taking the best available odds isn't optional for serious bettors. It's the difference between good and great results.
The same bankroll. The same opportunities. The same analysis.
47.71 units of difference over 1000 bets.
Best Book: +21.78u. Your Odds: -25.93u.
Don't work harder. Work smarter. Take the best odds, every single time!
Simulation Details
All calculations use the same Kelly Criterion formula as our Value Finders
Kelly = (bp - q) / b
where:
b = decimal_odds - 1
p = fair_value_probability
q = 1 - p
Unit Recommendation = Kelly * 25
(where 1 unit = 1% of bankroll)
Every bet in this simulation had positive EV using Best Book odds. Unit sizing was identical for both scenarios. The only variable was odds quality.
Common Excuses (And Why They're Costing You Money)
"But I don't have access to that book"
Then get access! Opening a new sportsbook account takes 10 minutes. If you're serious about not losing money, having multiple books is non-negotiable. The simulation proves it. If you don’t have access to a book with better than fair value odds, skip the bet.
"The difference is only a few cents on the dollar"
A few cents per bet becomes a 47 unit swing over 1000 bets. That's the difference between +$2,178 and -$2,593. Still think it's just pennies?
"It's too much work to check multiple books"
It takes 2 minutes (or less!) to line shop. It costs you time to find an edge, navigate to the best book, and place the bet. Why would you throw away that valuable time by taking bad odds that won’t make you profit in the long term? Plus, using an odds shopping tool like the Value Finder makes this is as easy as pie!
"I still made money when my bet hit with the suboptimal odds!"
The simulation shows Your Odds LOST money overall while Best Book won. Variance helps you sometimes, but the math will crush your profitability over time. It’s just not worth it.
Bottom Line: Line shopping isn't just about squeezing extra profit from winners. It's about the difference between being a winner and a loser. The simulation proves it: Best Book won, Your Odds lost. That's not hyperbole. That's math.
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