How To Use the NFL Tool Suite: A Complete Guide

Part of the Mama Knows Bets Education Series. See also: What is +EV Betting?, Bankroll Basics, Why Taking the Best Odds Matters, and How to Use the Value Finders Results Dashboard.

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What is the NFL Tool Suite?

The NFL Tool Suite is our unified football analysis platform — five interconnected tools in one place, designed to take you from "what does the market think?" all the way through "who's projected to find the end zone?" and "how has a player been performing lately?"

It brings the market-based Value Finder together with the full slate of supporting context — game matchups, player projections, a dedicated touchdown-market hub, and season-long game logs — under one roof, with seamless tab switching and shared data so every tool works together.

In simple terms: it's everything you need to find, validate, and track NFL betting opportunities, all in one place.

A note on how the NFL suite is built: The Value Finder defaults to market fair value — a devigged, sharpness-weighted consensus of the books — which is the most reliable basis for most bettors. But you can also switch the FV Mode to Model FV to price every prop off our projection model instead, or use the Double Edge preset to see only bets the model and the market both like. So "fair value" means market fair value by default, and our model is one toggle away.

The Five Tabs

You can navigate between tabs by clicking the tab bar, and the URL updates automatically (e.g., ?tab=game-view). This means you can bookmark or share a specific tab directly.

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Navigating the Suite

The Header

At the top of every page you'll find:

• 🏈 NFL Tool Suite — the suite title, always visible
• 📖 How-To Guide — links to this article
• 📊 Profitability Suite — links to the NFL profitability tracking, where you can follow historical results
• 📚 Book Key — a quick reference dropdown for all sportsbook abbreviations (PN = Pinnacle, FD = FanDuel, DK = DraftKings, etc.)
• Light/Dark toggle — switch themes at any time

On mobile, the links collapse into a "···" menu to keep the header clean.

The Tab Bar

The tab bar lives just below the header and sticks to the top as you scroll. Click any tab to switch — your position within the current tab is remembered so you don't lose your place if you switch and come back.

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Tab 1: Value Finder

The Value Finder is the core betting tool. It scans odds across all major sportsbooks, calculates fair value based on the sharp-book consensus, and shows you bets where you're getting better odds than the true probability suggests.

In simple terms: it finds bets where the math is on your side.

It covers the full NFL prop board — passing, rushing, and receiving yards; passing/rushing/receiving TDs; completions, attempts, receptions; anytime and first touchdown; kicking props; and more, including alternate lines.

Understanding the Columns

Player, Game & Bet Info

The left columns tell you what the bet is:

• Player — the player's name (click to open the full Player Details panel; hover for a quick tooltip)
• Game — the matchup (e.g., NE@SEA)
• Game Date — the date of the game (NFL slates span Thursday through Monday, so the date matters, not just the time)
• Game Time — scheduled kickoff, in ET
• Market — the prop type (Pass Yards, Rush Yards, Anytime TD, etc.)
• Line — the line value (hover/tap for a full breakdown of all available lines for this player/market)
• Side — Over/Under, or Yes/No for markets like First TD

The Value Metrics (The Important Stuff)

These are the columns that tell you how much value exists in the bet.

• Best Books — the sportsbook(s) offering the best odds. This is where you should place your bet. If multiple books are tied, they all appear here.
• Best Odds — the American odds at that book (e.g., +360). Hover for a sparkline of recent line movement.
• Fair Odds — our calculated "true" odds, from the devigged sharp-market consensus (or from a single book's devigged odds if you've picked one in FV Mode)
• EV% — Expected Value percentage — your mathematical edge on this bet
• Conf. Adj. Recc. U — the recommended bet size in units, confidence-adjusted. This is the column to sort by.
• Std. Recc. U — the pure Kelly stake before the confidence adjustment
• % vs Next — how much better the Best Book is vs the next closest book
• Coverage — how many books are offering odds on this market

Individual Book Odds

The remaining columns show odds at each specific book. Best Book(s) are highlighted in green. Hover any odds value to see a sparkline showing how that book's line has moved over the past 24 hours.

Book abbreviations:

• PN = Pinnacle (sharp book — primary fair value anchor)
• FD = FanDuel
• DK = DraftKings
• MG = BetMGM
• FN = Fanatics
• CZ = Caesars
• ES = TheScore
• BB = BallyBet
• BR = BetRivers
• HR = Hard Rock
• BO = BetOnline
• RB = ReBet
• BV = Bovada
• FL = Fliff

Click 📚 Book Key in the header anytime for the full reference.

Deep Dive: EV % and Kelly Recommendations

EV % (Expected Value Percentage) tells you your mathematical edge. EV 5% means for every $100 bet long-term, you expect to profit $5. Higher EV = bigger edge.

The Recc. U columns translate that edge into a stake using the Kelly criterion, sized off your unit. In the default Market FV mode you'll see two:

• Conf. Adj. Recc. U — Kelly scaled down based on how many (and which) books are reporting odds. If Pinnacle plus a bunch of books are all pricing a market, we're very confident. If only 2–3 soft books are? Less confident. This column builds in a buffer so you don't over-bet on potentially unreliable fair values. This is the recommended column to sort by.
• Std. Recc. U — the pure Kelly math: Best Odds vs Market Fair Odds. Always ≥ Conf. Adj. Recc. U.

My recommendation for most users: stick to Market FV and sort by Conf. Adj. Recc. U. It's the most conservative, most reliable metric.

For more on bankroll management and what your unit should be, read Bankroll Basics.

Player Info Columns

The Value Finder starts as a pure value table. But NFL props live and die on matchup and role, so the suite adds a 👤 Player Info toggle in the toolbar that expands six context columns directly into the table:

• Team — the player's team
• Pos — a color-coded position badge (QB / RB / WR / TE / K)
• Depth — the player's depth-chart rank, shown as a gold-gradient badge: brightest gold at 1 (the starter), gold at 2, bronze at 3, then flat gray from 4 on down where it gets deep. A quick glance tells you whether you're looking at a lead back or a fourth receiver.
• Tier — the player's usage tier (🟢 Key / 🟡 Contributor / ⚪ Reserve), from projected fantasy points rather than depth rank — so a committee back reads Key while a clear backup reads Reserve. Filter on it to hide the Reserve noise and see only the players who'll actually be involved.
• Opp DR — the opponent's defense rank, and it's position-aware. For a running back, it shows the opponent's rank against the run; for quarterbacks and pass-catchers, its rank against the pass. It's color-tiered so a soft matchup (rank near 32) shows green and a tough one (a top-8 defense) shows red.
• DvP — a 0–100 Defense-vs-Position matchup score, shown with an icon so you can read it instantly: ★ Elite (≥70), ● Good (≥55), ■ Neutral (≥45), ✕ Tough (<45). Higher means the defense the player faces is softer for that position.

It's off by default intentionally — if you prefer a pure value-first experience and don't want matchup data swaying your decisions before the math does, leave it off. Turn it on when you want to dig into context, sort by it, or filter on it.

The 🔒 lock button (next to the toggle, on both desktop and mobile) keeps Player Info on permanently — it persists across sessions so you don't have to re-enable it every time you visit.

Inside the DvP matchup score

The DvP number is a composite of four subscores, each graded on a 0–100 scale where higher = a softer matchup for the player's position. You'll see the full breakdown when you expand a TD Feed card or open a player's panel — and anywhere a subscore label appears, a small ⓘ icon sits next to it (hover on desktop, tap on mobile) with the same description. The four subscores and their weights:

• TD Susceptibility (45%) — rushing + receiving TDs this defense allows per game to the position. This is the heaviest input because we're grading touchdown markets. Higher = the defense gives up more scores to the position.
• Yardage Allowed (30%) — rushing + receiving yards the defense allows per game to the position. Higher = more yardage conceded.
• Unit Strength (15%) — the defense's overall team rank in the relevant phase: total pass yards allowed (grading QB/WR/TE) or total rush yards allowed (grading RB), ranked 1–32 across the league. Unlike the other three subscores, this one is team-wide, not position-specific — the same value for every receiver facing that defense. Think of it as the "sanity anchor" behind the sharper role-specific signals. Higher = a weaker unit overall.
• Volume Allowed (10%) — carries + targets the defense allows the position per game, a proxy for opportunity. Higher = the position sees more volume against this defense.

Each subscore is a percentile ranked onto a 20–92 band, and the composite is TD-weighted — so a defense that stuffs the run but bleeds touchdowns will still grade as a soft matchup for a goal-line back. Read the composite icon (★ / ● / ■ / ✕) for a quick verdict, then expand the breakdown to see why a matchup grades the way it does.

The Depth-Chart Hover

This is a signature NFL feature, and it's worth calling out on its own.

Anywhere you see a depth badge — on the TD Feed cards, in the Touchdowns tables, in the Player Panel header, and in the Value Finder player tooltip — you can hover it (desktop) or tap it (mobile) to pop open the player's team depth chart at that position. You'll see every player at the position ranked by depth, with the player you're looking at highlighted, and injury badges (Q / O / D / etc.) shown inline next to anyone banged up.

Why this matters in the NFL: touchdown and volume props are enormously sensitive to who's ahead of (and behind) a player on the chart. Is this the clear lead back, or is he in a committee? Did the WR2 just jump to WR1 because the starter is Out? The depth-chart hover answers that in one gesture, without leaving the card you're on.

Injury Badges & News

Injury badges — Q (Questionable), O (Out), D (Doubtful), and the rest — are pulled from the weekly NFL injury report and show up on player names, in tooltips, and in the Player Panel, as well as inline on the depth-chart hover described above.

Preseason note: Injury data populates in earnest as the season's weekly injury reports begin, so you'll see badges fill in closer to Week 1. During the preseason they'll be sparse — that's expected, not a bug.

Preset Filters

Preset buttons at the top of the tab surface curated subsets of opportunities:

• 💎 High Confidence — opportunities with a strong confidence-adjusted Kelly and solid book coverage; the cream of the crop
• 💰 Value Long Shots — higher-odds (+400 and above) opportunities with real Kelly and coverage behind them — lottery tickets with actual math on their side
• 🚨 Outlier Opportunities — bets where one book is significantly out of line with the rest of the market (high % vs Next); potentially mispriced lines to grab before they correct
• 💎🧠 Double Edge — bets that are +EV on both the model and the market at once — the strongest confirmation, where our projection and the sharp market agree there's value. (Refresh the page first so all projection data is loaded.)

Click any preset to apply it. Click again or 🧹 Clear to reset.

Toolbar Buttons

The toolbar row above the table, left to right:

• 🔄 Refresh — pulls the latest data. The tool also auto-refreshes periodically.
• 📥 Export CSV — downloads all current opportunities as a CSV for your own analysis
• 👤 Player Info — toggles the Team / Pos / Depth / Tier / Opp DR / DvP context columns described above. The 🔒 lock next to it keeps them on across sessions.
• ⚖️ FV Mode — controls the fair value source (Market, or a single book). See FV Mode below.
• ⚡ Boost — applies a profit boost, risk-free, or bonus-bet adjustment to a selected book's odds. See Boost Calculator below.
• 💾 Save / 📂 Load — save and restore named filter configurations. See Saved Filters below.
• 📚 Customize Books — choose which book columns show and in what order. See Customize Books below.
• 🚫 Exclude Books — remove books you don't have access to from the Best Book calculation. See Exclude Books below.
• ✅ Must Include — filter to only show rows where all your selected books have posted odds. See Must Include Books below.
• Unit $ — set your unit size in dollars to see dollar amounts alongside unit recommendations.

Sorting and Filtering

Sort by clicking any column header. Click again to reverse.

Default recommendation: sort by Conf. Adj. Recc. U, high to low.

Filter using the filter row below each header:

• Player name is a free-text search
• Book, Market, Game, Game Date, Side, and other dropdowns support multi-select — you can filter to multiple books, markets, or game days simultaneously. Each dropdown includes a Select All button at the top.
• Numeric columns (EV %, Recc. U, Best Odds, Line, etc.) support min/max range filters
• Filters stack across columns

Once you have a filter combination you use regularly, save it with the 💾 Save button so you can reload it instantly next session.

Sparklines: Reading Line Movement

Hover over any odds value (or the Best Odds column) to see a sparkline showing how that line has moved over the past 24 hours. The y-axis shows implied probability (not odds directly) — higher on the chart means more likely, which means lower odds.

What to look for:

• A book's line sitting below the fair value (dotted) line — you're getting better than true odds
• Steam moves — sharp simultaneous drops across multiple books mean sharp money has hit; act quickly
• Lagging books — one book's line barely moving while others adjust could mean a pricing delay and an opportunity

Player Tooltips and Player Details Panel

Hover over any player name (desktop) or tap it (mobile) to see a quick tooltip with:

• Team, opponent, a combined position + depth badge (e.g. RB2), and the usage-tier badge (Key / Contributor / Reserve)
• Overall DvP matchup score for the position, plus Proj FP (projected DK fantasy points)
• Model-projected number for this market (e.g., Proj Rush Yds, or Proj TD), and for touchdown/passing-TD markets the model's Monte Carlo probability shown as a % — with a green/red edge indicator comparing our projection to the current book odds
• 2025 hit rate for this player at this market, with its own edge indicator

Click the player name to open the full Player Details Panel. See Tab 5 and the panel breakdown below for everything it holds — it's the same panel from every tab.

VF History

Inside the Line Tooltip (desktop) or line modal (mobile), you'll find a 📋 VF History button. Tap it to expand a table showing the recent days this exact prop appeared in the Value Finder.

For each historical appearance you'll see the date, the Best Book on that day, the odds it was available at (green = better than fair, red = worse), the Recc. U on that day, and the Result — ✓ Hit (green), ✗ Miss (red), DNP (yellow), or Pending (gray).

When to use it: VF History is a quick sanity check before betting. If a prop has been surfacing consistently and hitting, that's additional signal. If it's been a persistent miss, it might be worth waiting or skipping.

Desktop vs. Mobile

Desktop: Full table with all columns. Scroll horizontally for individual book odds. Click headers to sort, use the filter row below headers.

Mobile: Card layout — each opportunity as a stacked card showing the key metrics. Tap the triangle to expand for all book odds. Use the search bar for quick player lookup, and the Filters toggle for sort/filter options. The mobile view reflects your FV mode selection: the card header badge and expanded details update to show the correct Recc. U label and value.

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FV Mode Selector

The ⚖️ FV Mode button (in the toolbar row) controls what we use as "fair value" when calculating EV and Kelly recommendations.

Market FV (Default — Recommended)

The default mode, and the basis of the NFL Value Finder. Fair value is derived from MKB's sharp-book consensus — each sportsbook is individually devigged, then weighted by sharpness. The sharper the book, the more influence it has on fair value. Pinnacle, as the sharpest book, anchors the calculation.

When Market FV is active, you'll see the two Recc. U columns: Conf. Adj. Recc. U and Std. Recc. U.

Use this when: basically always. It's the conservative, consensus-driven fair value that's been validated by the sharp market — and it's what the NFL suite is designed around.

Model FV

Switches fair value to MKB's projection model instead of the market. Every prop is priced off our Monte-Carlo probabilities — the flat touchdown probabilities (anytime / first / 2+ / pass TDs) and the yardage & reception distributions (pass/rush/receiving yards, receptions, scrimmage yards, interpolated to the exact line). EV and Kelly recompute against the model's fair value, and a Recc. U column reflects the model's edge.

Use this when: you want to see where our model disagrees with the market — a bet the model rates higher than the price implies is a model edge. Because the model can be noisy on thin markets, treat Model FV as a research/idea lens, and lean on Double Edge (below) when you want both the model and the market on your side.

Single Book (Devigged)

Select any individual sportsbook (FD, DK, MG, etc.) to use that book's devigged odds as your fair value benchmark. The vig is removed from that book's odds first, then EV and Kelly recalculate using the resulting true probability. The Best Odds column shows you which other books beat it.

When a single book is selected:

• A single Recc. U vs. [BOOK] column appears in place of the standard columns
• Rows where that specific book has no odds posted are excluded entirely

Use this when: you have access to a specific book and want to see which other books offer better prices relative to it — useful for line shopping or evaluating whether a particular book's lines are beatable.

Tip: The default Market FV is still the most reliable, conservative basis for most bettors — it's what the suite is designed around. Use Model FV and Double Edge to layer in the model's opinion once you're comfortable reading both.

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Boost Calculator

The ⚡ Boost button opens a calculator with three modes: Boost, Risk-Free, and Bonus Bet. Each mode recalculates EV and Recc. U to reflect the specific promotion you're evaluating.

Mode 1: Boost

Use this when a sportsbook is running a profit boost on a specific bet type.

1. Select your Boost Book — the book running the promotion
2. Select your Boost % — quick presets, or enter any custom percentage
3. The Best Odds column updates to show the boosted odds from that book, and EV % and Recc. U recalculate automatically

Example: DraftKings is running a 33% profit boost on anytime-TD props. Activate DK + 33% in the Boost Calculator, and every bet you'd normally place at DK odds now shows with the post-boost payout — so you can see exactly how much edge the boost adds.

When boost is active, the button highlights and shows your current settings (e.g., "DK +33%"). Click "Clear" to reset.

Mode 2: Risk-Free

Use this when a sportsbook offers a risk-free or insured bet — if your bet loses, you get bonus bets back.

1. Select the book offering the promotion
2. Set the Insured Amount — how much of your wager the book returns as bonus bets if you lose
3. Set the Est. Bonus Bet Conversion Rate — your estimate of how much real money you'll extract per dollar of bonus bets (75% is a common benchmark)
4. EV % and Recc. U recalculate to reflect the reduced downside — odds stay the same, but since losing costs less, every bet becomes more valuable

Mode 3: Bonus Bet

Use this when you have a bonus bet (free bet) to place and want to find the best play to maximize your return.

1. Select the book where you have the bonus bet
2. That's it — no other settings needed

How bonus bets work: Unlike regular bets, bonus bets only pay the profit — the stake is not returned. The EV % column becomes Conv % (Conversion %) — your expected return per dollar of bonus bet. Focus on plays in the +200 to +400 odds range with the highest Conv %. Longer odds show higher Conv % on paper, but the variance makes them impractical.

Note for all modes: If you have the selected book in your Exclude Books list, the promotion won't apply — the tool will warn you inside the panel.

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Saved Filters

The 💾 Save and 📂 Load buttons let you save your current filter configuration to your account and reload it instantly — on any device, any browser, any time.

Once you have filters configured the way you like — a preset, FV mode, column filters, boost settings, sort order, or any combination — click 💾 Save and give the set a name (e.g., "PN Devigged", "Anytime TD FD", "DK Boost 33%"). What gets saved: the active preset, FV Mode, all column filters, sort column and direction, boost settings, excluded books, and Must Include books.

Click 📂 Load to see all your saved sets, each with a short summary. Click any to apply instantly. Click the 🗑️ trash icon to delete one (with a confirm step so nothing goes by accident).

Saved filters are tied to your MKB account, so they follow you across devices.

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Customize Books

The 📚 Customize Books button gives you full control over which sportsbook columns appear in the Value Finder table, and in what order.

With a couple dozen sportsbooks tracked, the table can get wide. If you only care about a handful of books, hide the rest to cut down on scrolling. And if you always check FanDuel first, drag it to position #1 so it's the leftmost book column.

1. Click 📚 Customize Books to open the panel
2. Show/Hide books by clicking their badge. Books are grouped by category (Sharp, Major US, Regional US, Hard Rock, Offshore, Exchanges, Display Only)
3. Reorder by dragging any visible book up or down. Position 1 is the leftmost column
4. Use All, None, or Reset to adjust quickly

This is purely a display preference — fair value, EV %, Best Book, and Kelly are all unaffected. Your visibility and order preferences persist per sport in your browser, so your NFL setup won't touch your other sports.

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Exclude Books

The 🚫 Exclude Books button lets you remove specific sportsbooks from the Best Book calculation.

The most common reason: you don't have an account at a specific book, or a book has limited you. If DraftKings has limited you but the Value Finder keeps surfacing DK as the Best Book, that column is meaningless for you — you can't place those bets. Excluding DK forces the tool to find the next-best available book you actually have access to.

1. Click 🚫 Exclude Books to open the checklist
2. Check any books you want to exclude
3. Best Book, Best Odds, EV %, and Recc. U all recalculate instantly using the next-best available book
4. The button shows a red count badge while any books are excluded

This only affects which book appears as Best Book and the EV/Kelly math. The individual book odds columns still show all books, and fair value (the market consensus) is not changed. Excluded books persist in your browser automatically. For cross-device persistence, include them in a Saved Filter.

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Must Include Books

The ✅ Must Include button is the complement to Exclude Books. Instead of removing books, it filters the table to only show rows where all of your selected books have posted odds on that specific prop.

The most common reason: you want to bet at a specific book and only see opportunities that book is actively pricing. If you only want to bet at FanDuel today, Must Include FD means you'll only see rows where FD has odds posted — no surprises when you go to place the bet.

Must Include vs. filtering on Best Book — these are different. Filtering the Best Book column to FD shows props where FD currently has the best odds. Must Include FD shows props where FD has posted odds at all — the best odds could still be elsewhere.

To keep a Must Include configuration across devices, include it in a 💾 Saved Filter.

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Parlay HQ

Parlay HQ is a floating widget available on every tab in the suite — your one-stop shop for building and optimizing parlays. It has two modes: Build (manually pick your legs) and Optimize (let the math find the best combinations), and it feeds a Portfolio / Set Builder pool for constructing a portfolio of parlays.

Adding Legs

There are several ways to add legs:

1. From the Value Finder table — click the + button on any row (or "Add to Parlay" on mobile).
2. From the Player Panel — open any player's details, scroll to the All Markets section, and add a prop.
3. From a TD Feed card — every card in the Special Markets TD Feed has a + menu with Add to Betslip and Add to Pool options. "Add to Pool" drops the play into the Portfolio / Set Builder pool.

When a prop is already in your parlay, the button turns green with a ✓ — click again to remove. Parlay HQ shows your selected legs, combined odds, and total implied probability, and includes SGP conflict detection.

The Parlay Optimizer

Switch to the Optimize mode to have Parlay HQ find the best parlay combinations from the current data automatically:

1. Select your Parlay Book — the book you'll place it at
2. Choose your number of legs
3. Optionally apply a Boost % or switch to Risk-Free mode if your book is running a parlay promo
4. Click Find Best Parlays

It evaluates valid combinations, calculates combined odds at your book, applies any boost/risk-free adjustment, and ranks by Expected Value. Each result shows combined odds (pre- and post-boost), total EV %, recommended units, and the individual legs. Click a result to expand it and see a grid of what the parlay would cost at every other book, with green highlights where another book beats yours.

The optimizer respects whatever filters you already have active, lets you lock legs you want in every parlay and exclude ones you don't, and offers a "Best price on book" toggle so it only surfaces parlays your selected book actually prices best.

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Betslip Deep Linking

No more flipping between MKB and your sportsbook to retype a bet. Betslip deep linking lets you jump straight from an opportunity into your book's betslip with the selection — or the whole parlay — already loaded.

Look for the ↗ arrow: it marks everything that supports one-tap betslip linking.

• In the Value Finder table — every individual book odds cell with a ↗ is a live link; the Best Odds cell links through to whichever book has the best number.
• On a TD Feed card — expand any card and the All Sportsbooks grid gives each book its own ↗ to open that book with the bet loaded.
• In the Player Panel — the best-book badge on each market in All Markets is a deep link.
• In Parlay HQ — build a parlay and each book gets a Bet ↗ button to open it with all your legs pre-loaded.

It works on desktop and mobile — on mobile the link opens your sportsbook app (or its mobile site). One reminder: deep links load your selections, but odds move fast. Always confirm the price and your stake inside the sportsbook before you place the bet.

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Tab 2: Game View

The Game View tab shows the whole slate as side-by-side game cards, in chronological order. The header names the slate — "NFL Week 1" with the Tuesday–Monday date window underneath (Tuesday to Monday, since Monday Night Football closes out the week). Because NFL games spread across several days, each card is also stamped with a day-of-week date and kickoff time — e.g., "Thu 9/9 8:15pm ET" — so you always know when a game is.

Game Cards

Each game renders as a card with:

Header:

• Both teams (with logos) and their implied team totals
• Kickoff (day + date + time)
• Model-projected game total vs. the market over/under, with an edge indicator when the model diverges from the market (📈 higher / 📉 lower)
• A weather chip (see the note below)

Rosters by team: Each team's players, organized by depth, with heat-mapped projected stats, an anytime-TD %, the DvP matchup icon (★ / ● / ■ / ✕), a projected FP (fantasy points) column, and depth badges you can hover for the position depth chart. The FP cell is tinted by the player's usage tier (see below), so you can read a player's projected fantasy output and his expected involvement at a glance.

Click any player row to open the full Player Details Panel.

Projected Fantasy Points & Usage Tiers

Every player carries a projected fantasy-point (FP) total, computed with standard DraftKings DFS scoring (0.1/yd rush+rec, 1/reception PPR, 6/TD; 0.04/pass yd, 4/pass TD, −1/INT) off our reconciled projections. It's a single, cross-position number for "how much is this guy expected to produce this week."

From that number, each player gets a usage tier badge — the fastest way to gauge expected involvement without staring at depth charts:

• 🟢 Key — a featured, high-usage player (roughly a starting-caliber weekly workload; QBs starting are always Key)
• 🟡 Contributor — a real rotational/complementary piece who'll see meaningful touches
• ⚪ Reserve — deep depth who rarely factors in

The key thing: the tier is based on projected usage, not depth-chart rank. That matters because "RB2" means very different things team to team — a committee back on one team is a Key piece while a clear-backup RB2 on another is a Reserve. The tier badge cuts through that. You'll see it on the Player Panel, the Value Finder tooltip, and as the FP-cell color on Game View. (The depth-chart layout on Game View still follows position depth — the tier is the badge on top of it.)

Weather note: Game cards have a spot for a weather chip, but weather data isn't populating yet. It's wired up and will go live before Week 1 — until then, treat the weather chip as coming-soon rather than empty. We'd rather tell you straight than show you a chip you can't trust.

Using Game View Effectively

• Get context before betting — see which players are projected for volume and touchdowns before checking the Value Finder
• Spot scoring environments — games the model projects higher than the market suggest overs on team totals or player counting stats; implied team totals color-code the same way
• Read the matchup icons — ★ and ● matchups are the soft spots for that position
• Check the depth chart — hover a depth badge to confirm role before trusting a projection

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Tab 3: Projections

The Projections tab shows a comprehensive, sortable, filterable table of all player projections — the same data that powers the Value Finder tooltips and player panels, but laid out so you can find players by stat and matchup.

Two Views: QB and Skill Players

Because quarterbacks and skill players have entirely different stat lines, the tab splits into two sub-views:

• QB — projected passing yards, passing TDs, attempts/completions, interceptions, and rushing yards
• Skill players (RB / WR / TE) — projected rushing attempts and yards, targets, receptions, receiving yards, scrimmage yards, and touchdowns

Both views also carry a projected FP (DraftKings fantasy points) column, the Depth badge (hover it for the position depth chart), and the DvP matchup score/icon — so production, role, and matchup travel with every row. Sort by FP to rank the whole slate by expected output.

Sorting and Filtering

Sort by any column — most useful to sort by a stat category to find the players the model is highest on. Filter by team, position, and matchup, and search by player name.

Using the Projections

Compare a projected number or probability to what the book is offering to spot edge, then jump to the Value Finder to see it priced with EV and Kelly already calculated. The Projections tab is best for research and manual comparison; the Value Finder is where the +EV math lands.

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Tab 4: Special Markets

This is the headline of the NFL suite. Special Markets (✨) is the touchdown hub, and it's where our model's touchdown probabilities come to the front. It covers three markets, each in two flavors, across six sub-tabs:

The "Feed" views are rich, sortable, filterable cards — the best place to browse and evaluate. The plain views (Touchdowns, 1st Touchdown, 2+ Touchdowns) are compact by-game tables — the best place to scan a whole slate ranked within each game.

Reading a TD Feed Card

Each card packs a full analysis of one player's touchdown market:

• Rank + tier badge — cards are ranked and badged by how strong the play is: 🔥 TOP PICK (elite model play — high TD probability and a strong model edge), ⚡ DOUBLE EDGE (both model and market see ≥7.5% EV), 🤖 MODEL EDGE (model sees the edge), 📊 MARKET EDGE (the market consensus sees the edge). Cards below the tier floor still show if they clear a small +EV, marked with a plain 🤖 or 📊 chip.
• Position + depth badge — hover it for the team depth chart at that position
• Opponent defense-rank chip — 🛡 with the opponent's rank vs the run (RB) or pass (everyone else), color-tiered
• A steam chip — 📈 / 🔥 (steaming) or 📉 / ❄️ (cooling) when the market's implied probability has moved meaningfully since the line opened
• Best-book odds with a sparkline — hover the odds for recent line movement
• EV chips — 🤖 = model +EV (the price beats our model's fair value) and 📊 = market +EV (the price beats the devigged market fair value), each with the EV % and a Kelly stake. This 🤖 / 📊 notation is the standard EV language across the whole site now.
• Stat tiles — the model's fair odds and probability, the market's fair odds and probability, the DvP score with its icon, and the team's implied total
• Expand the card for a full DvP breakdown (TD Susceptibility, Yardage Allowed, Unit Strength, Volume Allowed — the four subscores that build the score), this week's projected volume, the season anytime-TD rate, a line-movement chart, and an all-books odds grid where every book has a one-tap ↗ betslip deep-link
• The "+" menu — Add to Betslip or Add to Pool (the Parlay Portfolio / Set Builder)

The Feed's toolbar lets you search, filter by best book / game / team / position, toggle 🤖 Beats Model, 📊 Beats Market, and 🔥 Steaming, set a minimum probability or minimum DvP under More filters, and sort by tier (default), model probability, model EV, market EV, DvP, steam, or best odds. When a slate exposes more than one week at once, week sub-tabs let you switch between them.

Reading a Touchdowns Table

The compact views group players by game, chronologically, and rank them within each game by model probability. Each row shows the position badge, the depth badge (hover for the depth chart), the DvP icon and score, projected TDs, the model probability, the 2025 anytime-TD rate, the best book, best odds, and the 🤖 / 📊 EV indicators. Each game header carries both teams with implied totals, the model vs market total, and projected total TDs. It's the fastest way to scan a full slate.

First TD and 2+ TD

The same card and table treatment applies to the First TD scorer (who scores the game's first touchdown?) and 2+ TD (who finds the end zone twice?) markets — both are longer-odds markets where the model's probability estimate is especially useful for separating live plays from lottery tickets.

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Tab 5: Game Logs

The Game Logs tab shows historical player performance for the season — every game, with the box-score stats that matter for props. This is your tool for verifying recent form and validating projections against actual results.

What You'll See

For each game log entry: week, opponent, home/away, and the stat line — passing yards and TDs, rushing attempts/yards/TDs, receptions, targets, receiving yards and TDs, and total (rush + rec) touchdowns.

Filters

Search by player name, filter by team or position, and narrow by date/week range. Results load progressively — scroll down to load more.

Using Game Logs

• Verify recent form — is a player trending up? Has usage (touches, targets, snaps) changed?
• Check the role — a jump or drop in touches can signal a role change the projection model hasn't fully caught up to
• Validate projections — do our projections line up with what you see in recent games?
• Cross-reference hit rates — pair the logs with the hit-rate grids in the Player Panel

Pro tip: consistent recent production, a favorable projection, and a +EV market price is the strongest multi-signal opportunity you can find.

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The Player Details Panel

Click any player name — from any tab — to slide open the Player Details Panel. It's the deepest single view of a player in the suite, and its sections appear in this order:

1. Header — headshot, name, jersey number, team / position / opponent, kickoff, and bio (age, height, weight, college). Below the name sit the badges: a position + depth badge you can hover for the team depth chart, a usage-tier badge (🟢 Key / 🟡 Contributor / ⚪ Reserve — based on projected fantasy points, not depth rank), and a weather chip (once weather is live).
2. Matchup strip — four tiles: the DvP score and icon, the Opp Run/Pass D rank (position-aware), the Team Total, and the Game O/U.
3. This Week's Projections — QBs get pass yards, pass TDs, INTs, completions, attempts, and rush yards; skill players get rush attempts/yards, targets, receptions, receiving yards, scrimmage yards, and rushing/receiving/total TDs — all heat-mapped, plus the projected DK fantasy-point total.
4. DvP Breakdown — the four subscores behind the matchup score: TD Susceptibility (45%), Yardage Allowed (30%), Unit Strength (15%), Volume Allowed (10%). Higher = softer matchup.
5. This Week's Projected Probabilities — the model's Monte Carlo probabilities of clearing common thresholds (anytime/2+ TD, scrimmage and receiving yards, receptions, pass yards/TDs, etc.), laid out to line up with... It leads with a Fantasy Pts boom/bust row: a player-relative floor / median / ceiling (three DK-fantasy thresholds picked at roughly the 75% / 50% / 25% probability marks), so you can read a player's realistic range at a glance — a stud might show 15+ 78% · 20+ 52% · 25+ 28%, a role player 5+ 81% · 10+ 40% · 15+ 14%.
6. 2025 Hit Rates — the same thresholds, but as the player's actual hit rate over the season, so model expectation and real results sit side by side — including the same fantasy floor/median/ceiling as last year's real boom/bust rate.
7. 2025 Season — season averages: games, TD games, anytime-TD rate, scrimmage yards per game, touches, targets, and red-zone touches per game.
8. Game Charts — recent-game bar charts with average and projection reference lines, led by a Fantasy Points (DK) chart (per-game DK fantasy points computed from the logs, with the weekly projection line). QBs then get pass yards, pass TDs, and rush yards; skill players get rush yards, receptions, receiving yards, targets, and a stacked Rush + Rec TD chart that shows both touchdown types in one bar.
9. Recent Game Logs — a heat-mapped game-by-game table (collapsed by default).
10. All Markets — every market currently priced for this player, as a sortable table (Market / Side / Line / Best / Odds / EV% / Recc. U), each with a betslip deep-link and a + to add straight to your parlay (collapsed by default).

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Common Scenarios

New to the suite? Here are the most common things people want to do and exactly how to accomplish them.

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"I want tonight's best anytime-TD plays"

1. Go to the Special Markets tab — it opens on the 📡 TD Feed (Anytime TD)
2. Leave the sort on Tier (default) — 🔥 TOP PICKs and ⚡ DOUBLE EDGE cards rise to the top
3. Filter to tonight's Game (or Team) using the dropdowns
4. Scan the tier badges and the 🤖 / 📊 EV chips; expand any card for the DvP breakdown and all-books odds
5. Tap a book's ↗ in the All Sportsbooks grid to load the bet, or use the + menu to add it to your parlay

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"I want to see the full depth chart at a position"

1. Find the player anywhere they show a depth badge — a TD Feed card, a Touchdowns table, the Projections tab, or the Player Panel header
2. Hover the badge (desktop) or tap it (mobile)
3. The team's depth chart at that position pops up — every player ranked by depth, the current player highlighted, with Q / O / D injury badges inline
4. Use it to confirm whether you're looking at a lead role or a committee before you trust a volume or TD prop

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"A book is running a TD boost — how do I evaluate it?"

1. Go to the Value Finder tab and click ⚡ Boost
2. Stay on the Boost tab, select the book (e.g., DK), and choose the boost % (e.g., 33%)
3. Filter the Market column to Anytime TD (multi-select in the header)
4. Every row now shows the post-boost EV and Recc. U at that book — positive-EV rows are the ones worth taking
5. When you're done, click Clear to return to normal

(You can also evaluate a boost right on a market by combining it with an FV Mode single-book benchmark if you want to shop it against a specific book's devigged price.)

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"I only have access to certain books — I want to ignore the ones I can't use"

1. Click 🚫 Exclude Books in the toolbar
2. Check every book you don't have an account at
3. Best Book, EV %, and Recc. U instantly recalculate to your next-best available option
4. To make it permanent across devices, click 💾 Save, name it "My Books", and 📂 Load it each session (it also auto-persists in your browser)

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"I want to find bets where Pinnacle's devigged odds say there's value elsewhere"

1. Click ⚖️ FV Mode and select PN under Single Book (Devigged)
2. The table shows EV and Recc. U calculated against Pinnacle's devigged odds
3. Only rows where PN has posted odds appear — the most liquid, sharp-confirmed lines
4. Sort by Recc. U to find the biggest edges relative to PN

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"I want to research a specific player before betting"

1. In the Value Finder, type the player's name in the search
2. Hover their name for the quick tooltip: projection, hit rate, matchup
3. Click their name to open the full Player Panel — projections, DvP breakdown, projected probabilities, 2025 hit rates, season stats, charts, game logs, and all markets
4. Hover the depth badge in the panel header to check where they sit on the chart
5. Flip to Game Logs for recent form if you're still on the fence

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"I want to see which games are good scoring environments this week"

1. Go to the Game View tab
2. Read each card's model-projected total vs the market O/U — the edge indicator flags games the model sees as higher- or lower-scoring than the market
3. Check the implied team totals on each card (color-coded) to see which offenses are expected to put up points
4. Click into a game to see player projections, anytime-TD %, and matchup icons by team

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"I want the compact, whole-slate view of the TD board"

1. Go to Special Markets and pick the plain table view — 🏈 Touchdowns, 🥇 1st Touchdown, or 💥 2+ Touchdowns
2. Players are grouped by game and ranked within each game by model probability
3. Scan the DvP icons, model %, 2025 rate, best odds, and 🤖 / 📊 EV flags down each game
4. Click any name to open the full Player Panel

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"I want to save my setup so I don't reconfigure every session"

1. Set everything the way you like: preset, FV mode, excluded books, sort, column filters
2. Click 💾 Save and name it
3. Next session, click 📂 Load and select it — it all restores instantly, on any device

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Putting It All Together: A Full Workflow

Here's how to combine the tabs into a complete pre-bet research flow:

Step 1: Start with Game View

Open Game View to read the slate. Note which games the model projects as high-scoring, which offenses have big implied totals, and which players carry favorable matchup icons.

Step 2: Hit the Special Markets TD Feed

Switch to Special Markets. On the TD Feed, let the tier sort surface the 🔥 TOP PICKs and ⚡ DOUBLE EDGE cards. Expand a few — check the DvP breakdown, the depth (hover the badge), and the steam. This is where the model's touchdown read is front and center.

Step 3: Check Projections for Volume

Flip to Projections to confirm the volume story behind a play — is the RB projected for the carries, is the WR projected for the targets? Note the DvP and depth on each row.

Step 4: Find and Price the Value

Go to the Value Finder. Turn on 👤 Player Info so Depth, Opp DR, and DvP travel with every row. Sort by Conf. Adj. Recc. U in Market FV mode to see the best-confidence plays across the whole board — not just touchdowns.

Step 5: Validate the Opportunity

Hover the player name for the quick tooltip (projection + hit rate + matchup). Click through to the Player Panel for the full picture — projected probabilities vs 2025 hit rates, the charts, and recent game logs.

Step 6: Check Sparklines and Steam Before Betting

Hover the Best Odds sparkline in the Value Finder (or watch the steam chip on the TD card). Is the line moving in your favor or away from you? Has sharp money already hit?

Step 7: Execute

Place your bet at the Best Book shown, at the odds shown — tap the ↗ to load it straight into your book's betslip, or build it into a parlay in Parlay HQ. Always confirm the price and stake in the sportsbook before you submit.

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Quick Tips

Sort by Conf. Adj. Recc. U in the Value Finder — it's the most reliable single signal for prioritizing plays.

Live in the TD Feed for touchdown props — the tier badges and 🤖 / 📊 EV chips do the ranking for you, and the depth-chart hover and DvP breakdown are right there on the card.

Hover every depth badge before trusting a volume or TD prop — role is everything in the NFL, and the hover shows you the whole position chart plus injuries in one gesture.

Turn on 👤 Player Info and lock it — Depth, Opp DR, and DvP context in the Value Finder table is worth having on permanently.

Read Opp DR position-aware — for a back it's run defense; for a receiver or QB it's pass defense. Green = soft matchup, red = a top-8 defense.

Market FV is the default and the safest — but switch FV Mode to Model FV to price off our projection, use a single book for line shopping, or run the Double Edge preset to find bets the model and market both like.

Save your daily starting point — 💾 Save your preferred preset, FV mode, and sort, then 📂 Load it each session.

Bookmark the suite URL — it lives at /dashboard/nfl-tool-suite. The tab (and Special Markets sub-tab) you're on stays in the URL, so you can bookmark a specific view.

Refresh before betting — the tool refreshes on its own, but a manual 🔄 right before you bet confirms the odds are current.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Where does "fair value" come from in the NFL Value Finder?

By default, from the sharp market — a devigged, sharpness-weighted consensus of the sportsbooks, anchored by Pinnacle — so EV and Kelly compare your price to what the sharp market thinks is true. You can also switch FV Mode → Model FV to price every prop off our projection model instead (touchdown probabilities plus interpolated yardage/reception distributions), or use Double Edge to require both. Market FV stays the recommended default for most bettors.

What do the 🤖 and 📊 chips mean?

They're the standard EV notation across the whole site. 🤖 = the price beats our model's fair value (model +EV). 📊 = the price beats the devigged market fair value (market +EV). A play showing both — a ⚡ DOUBLE EDGE — has model and market agreeing there's an edge.

What does the matchup icon (★ ● ■ ✕) mean?

It's our Defense-vs-Position (DvP) score for how the opposing defense handles this player's position. ★ Elite (≥70) = a very soft matchup; ● Good (≥55); ■ Neutral (≥45); ✕ Tough (<45) = a strong defense against the position. It's one signal among several, not a bet trigger on its own — and the Player Panel breaks the score into its four subscores (TD Susceptibility, Yardage, Unit Strength, Volume).

Why is the weather chip empty on Game View and the TD cards?

Weather data isn't populating yet. The chips are built and wired up, but the live weather feed goes on before Week 1. Rather than show you a chip you can't rely on, we're being upfront that it's coming — expect it to fill in as the season opener approaches.

Why don't I see many injury badges right now?

Injury badges come from the weekly NFL injury report, which ramps up as the regular season nears. During the preseason they'll be sparse; you'll see Q / O / D badges populate on player names, tooltips, the Player Panel, and the depth-chart hover closer to Week 1.

What's the difference between the "Feed" and the plain tables in Special Markets?

Same market, two layouts. The Feed views (📡) are rich cards — best for browsing, filtering, and evaluating one play at a time, with the full DvP breakdown, steam, and all-books odds on each card. The plain tables (Touchdowns, 1st Touchdown, 2+ Touchdowns) are compact, by-game, and ranked within each game — best for scanning an entire slate fast.

Does this suite work like the other sports' suites?

Yes. The NFL Tool Suite mirrors our NBA, WNBA, MLB, and NHL suites — the same five-tab layout, the same FV Mode / Boost / Saved Filters / Customize–Exclude–Must-Include Books / Parlay HQ / betslip deep-linking mechanics, and the same player tooltips and details panel. The NFL-specific pieces are the depth-chart hover, the position-aware Opp DR and DvP matchups, and the touchdown-focused Special Markets hub. If you know one suite, you know them all.

Found an issue?

Email hilary@mama-knows-bets.com or DM via X or Discord. The suite is actively developed and we take bug reports seriously.

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This is the initial launch of the NFL Tool Suite — the core five tabs, the touchdown hub, and the full shared toolkit are all live now. More is on the way before the season kicks off, including live weather, deeper defensive-matchup tooling, and additional context as the injury reports and slates ramp up. Ready to explore? Head to the NFL Tool Suite and start with the Special Markets TD Feed or the Value Finder.