How To Use the MLB Tool Suite: A Complete Guide

Part of the Mama Knows Bets Education Series. See also: What is +EV Betting?, Bankroll Basics, Why Taking the Best Odds Matters, and How to Use the Value Finders Results Dashboard.

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Jump To

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What is the MLB Tool Suite?

The MLB Tool Suite is our unified MLB analysis platform — five interconnected tools in one place, designed to take you from "what does the market think?" all the way through "what does our model think?" and "how has a player been performing lately?"

In simple terms: it's everything you need to find, validate, and track MLB betting opportunities, all in one place.

The Five Tabs

You can navigate between tabs by clicking the tab bar, and the URL updates automatically (e.g., ?tab=game-view). This means you can bookmark or share a specific tab directly.

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Navigating the Suite

The Header

At the top of every page you'll find:

• ⚾ MLB Tool Suite — the suite title, always visible
• 📖 How-To Guide — links to this article
• 📚 Book Key — a quick reference for all sportsbook abbreviations (PN = Pinnacle, FD = FanDuel, DK = DraftKings, etc.)
• Light/Dark toggle — switch themes at any time

On mobile, the links collapse into a "···" menu to keep the header clean.

The Tab Bar

The tab bar lives just below the header. Click any tab to switch — your position within the current tab is remembered so you don't lose your place if you switch and come back.

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Tab 1: Value Finder

The Value Finder is the core betting tool. It scans odds across all major sportsbooks, calculates fair value based on sharp book consensus, and shows you bets where you're getting better odds than the true probability suggests.

In simple terms: it finds bets where the math is on your side.

Understanding the Columns

Player, Game & Bet Info

The left columns tell you what the bet is:

• Player — the player's name (click to open the full Player Details panel; hover for a quick tooltip)
• Game — the matchup (e.g., NYY@BOS)
• Game Date — the date of the game
• Game Time — game start time (ET)
• Market — the prop type (Hits, Home Runs, RBIs, Pitcher Strikeouts, Total Bases, Stolen Bases, etc.)
• Line — the line value (hover/tap for a full breakdown of all available lines for this player/market)
• Side — Over or Under

The Value Metrics (The Important Stuff)

These are the columns that tell you how much value exists in the bet.

• Best Book — the sportsbook(s) offering the best odds. This is where you should place your bet. If multiple books are tied, they all appear here.
• Best Odds — the American odds at that book (e.g., +360)
• Fair Odds — our calculated "true" odds (source depends on FV Mode — see below)
• EV % — Expected Value percentage — your mathematical edge on this bet
• Recc. U columns — recommended bet size in units. These columns change dynamically based on your selected FV Mode (see "FV Mode and Recc. U Columns" below)
• % vs Next — how much better the Best Book is vs the next closest book
• Coverage — how many books are offering odds on this market

Individual Book Odds

The remaining columns show odds at each specific book. Best Book(s) are highlighted in green. Hover any odds value to see a sparkline showing how that book's line has moved over the past 24 hours.

Book abbreviations:

• PN = Pinnacle (sharp book — primary fair value anchor)
• CI = Circa (display only, NOT included in FV calculations)
• FD = FanDuel
• DK = DraftKings
• MG = BetMGM
• FN = Fanatics
• CZ = Caesars
• ES = ESPNBet / TheScore
• BB = BallyBet
• RK = Hard Rock
• BR = BetRivers
• RB = ReBet
• BV = Bovada
• BO = BetOnline
• FL = Fliff

Click 📚 Book Key in the header anytime for the full reference.

Deep Dive: EV % and Kelly Recommendations

EV % (Expected Value Percentage) tells you your mathematical edge. EV 5% means for every $100 bet long-term, you expect to profit $5. Higher EV = bigger edge.

FV Mode and Recc. U Columns

The Recc. U (recommended units) columns are dynamic — they update based on which FV Mode you have selected. Here's exactly what you'll see:

Market FV (default): Two columns appear:

• Conf. Adj. Recc. U — Kelly size scaled down based on how many (and which) books are reporting odds. If Pinnacle + 10 books are reporting, we're very confident. If only 2-3 soft books? Less confident. This column builds in a buffer so you don't over-bet on potentially unreliable fair values. This is the recommended column to sort by.
• Std. Recc. U — the pure Kelly math: Best Odds vs Market Fair Odds, quarter Kelly. Always >= Conf. Adj. Recc. U.

Model FV: A single blue column:

• Model Recc. U — Kelly calculated against model-derived fair value instead of market consensus

Book FV (any individual sportsbook): A single blue column:

• Recc. U vs. [BOOK] — Kelly calculated using that book's odds as the fair value benchmark. Only rows where that specific book has posted odds are shown — any row where the book has no odds is excluded entirely.

Double Edge preset: Three colored columns appear simultaneously:

• Model Recc. U (blue) — Kelly vs model fair value
• Market Recc. U (indigo) — Kelly vs market fair value
• Blend Recc. U (purple) — conservative blend of model and market Kelly using a harmonic mean, which penalizes disagreement between the two signals and pulls toward the lower value

My recommendation for most users: stick to Market FV and sort by Conf. Adj. Recc. U. It's the most conservative, most reliable metric.

For more on bankroll management and what your unit should be, read Bankroll Basics.

Preset Filters

Preset buttons at the top of the tab surface curated subsets of opportunities:

• High Confidence — opportunities with high Confidence Recc. U values and strong coverage; the cream of the crop
• Value Long Shots — higher-odds (+500 and above) opportunities with solid EV and coverage — lottery tickets with actual math behind them
• Outlier Opportunities — bets where one book is significantly out of line with the market (high % vs Next); potentially mispriced lines to grab before they correct
• Model Edge — filters for bets where our model sees positive EV, regardless of current FV mode. Use this to find spots where our model disagrees with the market in your favor
• Double Edge — opportunities where BOTH the market AND our model agree there's edge — the highest-confidence plays. This preset locks FV mode to Market and displays three simultaneous Recc. U columns: Model (blue), Market (indigo), and Blend (purple, a conservative harmonic mean that penalizes disagreement and pulls toward the lower signal). For best results, refresh the page before applying Double Edge to ensure all projection data has loaded.

Click any preset to apply it. Click again or Clear to reset.

Toolbar Buttons

The toolbar row above the table, left to right:

• Refresh — pulls the latest data. The tool also auto-refreshes every ~2 minutes.
• Export CSV — downloads all current opportunities as a CSV for your own analysis
• Player Info — toggles additional MLB-specific context columns directly in the table: Bat# (batting order position, heatmapped 1-9), Bat (batter handedness — L/R/S), vs (opposing pitcher's hand — L/R), Pitcher (starting pitcher name), and Confirmed (lineup confirmation status). Useful when you want to sort or filter by matchup context without opening the player panel. Leave it off for a pure value-first experience; turn it on when you want to dig into context.
• FV Mode — controls the fair value source (Market, Model, or a single book). See FV Mode below.
• Boost — applies a profit boost to a selected book's odds. See Boost Calculator below.
• Save / Load — save and restore named filter configurations. See Saved Filters below.
• Exclude Books — remove books you don't have access to from the Best Book calculation. See Exclude Books below.
• Must Include — filter to only show rows where all your selected books have posted odds. See Must Include Books below.
• Unit $ — set your unit size in dollars to see dollar amounts alongside unit recommendations.

Sorting and Filtering

Sort by clicking any column header. Click again to reverse.

Default recommendation: sort by Conf. Adj. Recc. U, high to low (in Market FV mode).

Filter using the filter row below each header:

• Player name is a free-text search
• Book, Market, Game, Game Date, Side, and other dropdowns support multi-select — you can filter to multiple books or markets simultaneously
• Numeric columns (EV %, Recc. U, Best Odds, etc.) support min/max range filters — enter a minimum, a maximum, or both
• Filters stack across columns

Once you have a filter combination you use regularly, save it with the Save button so you can reload it instantly next session — see Saved Filters below.

Sparklines: Reading Line Movement

Hover over any odds value (or the Best Odds column) to see a sparkline showing how that line has moved over the past 24 hours. The y-axis shows implied probability (not odds directly) — higher on the chart means more likely, which means lower odds.

What to look for:

• A book's line sitting below the fair value (dotted) line — you're getting better than true odds
• Steam moves — sharp simultaneous drops across multiple books mean sharp money has hit; act quickly
• Lagging books — one book's line barely moving while others adjust could mean a pricing delay and an opportunity

Player Tooltips and Player Details Panel

Hover over any player name (desktop) or tap it (mobile) to see a quick tooltip with:

• Team, position, opponent
• MKB MatchIQ (MIQ) score — our proprietary pitch-level matchup rating
• Batting order position and opposing pitcher info
• Model-projected probability for hitting this line, shown as both a % and American odds, with a green/red edge indicator comparing our projection to the current book odds
• Season-to-date (STD) hit rate for this player at this specific line, with its own edge indicator

Click the player name to open the full Player Details Panel — see Player Panel (Batters) and Pitcher Panel below for complete details.

Line Tooltip

Hover over any value in the Line column to see all available lines for that player/market side by side. For each line and side you'll see: Best book, odds, EV%, Rec U, and coverage — all heatmapped so you can spot where the value is at a glance.

VF History

Inside the Line Tooltip (desktop) or line modal (mobile), you'll find a VF History button. Tap it to expand a table showing the last 10 days this exact prop appeared in the Value Finder.

For each historical appearance you'll see:

• Date — when this prop was surfaced
• Book — the Best Book on that day (shown as a colored badge)
• Odds — the odds it was available at (green = better than fair, red = worse)
• Recc. U — the Kelly recommendation on that day
• Result — Hit (green), Miss (red), DNP (yellow — player didn't play), or Pending (gray — result not yet recorded)

When to use it: VF History is a quick sanity check before betting. If a prop has been surfacing consistently for several days and has been hitting, that's additional signal. If it's been a persistent miss, it might be worth waiting or skipping.

Desktop vs. Mobile

Desktop: Full table with all columns. Scroll horizontally for individual book odds. Click headers to sort, use the filter row below headers.

Mobile: Card layout — each opportunity as a stacked card showing the key metrics. Tap the triangle to expand for all book odds. Use the search bar for quick player lookup, and the Filters toggle for sort/filter options. The mobile view fully reflects your FV mode selection: the card header badge and expanded details update to show the correct Recc. U label and value (Conf. Adj., Model, Recc. U vs. Book, or all three for Double Edge). Sort options in the mobile Filters panel also update to match the active mode.

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New: FV Mode Selector

The FV Mode button (in the toolbar row) controls what we use as "fair value" when calculating EV and Kelly recommendations.

Market FV (Default — Recommended)

The default mode. Fair value is derived from MKB's proprietary sharp book consensus — each sportsbook is individually devigged, then weighted by sharpness. The sharper the book, the more influence it has on fair value. Pinnacle, as the sharpest book, anchors the calculation.

When Market FV is active, you'll see two Recc. U columns: Conf. Adj. Recc. U and Std. Recc. U (see "FV Mode and Recc. U Columns" above for full detail).

Use this when: you want conservative, consensus-driven fair value that's been validated by the sharp market. Recommended for most users.

Model FV (Use with Caution)

Switches fair value to our proprietary probability model. Instead of asking "what does the sharp market think the true probability is?" it asks "what does our Monte Carlo simulation say?"

When Model FV is active:

• Fair Odds recalculate based on model probability
• EV % reflects model-vs-book edge rather than market-vs-book edge
• A single Model Recc. U column (blue) replaces the two Market FV columns
• Only rows where the model sees edge are shown

This can surface opportunities that the market hasn't fully priced in yet — but it can also surface false positives when our model is wrong. Model FV is inherently less conservative than Market FV.

The Model Edge preset automatically activates Model FV and filters for strong model edge. The Double Edge preset shows bets where both model and market agree — the highest-confidence opportunities.

Use this when: you want to bet on our proprietary probability estimates, or you're looking for edge the market might be missing.

Single Book (Devigged)

Select any individual sportsbook (FD, DK, MG, etc.) to use that book's devigged odds as your fair value benchmark. The vig is removed from that book's odds first, then EV and Kelly recalculate using the resulting true probability. The Best Odds column shows you which other books beat it.

When a single book is selected:

• A single Recc. U vs. [BOOK] column (blue) appears in place of the standard columns
• Rows where that specific book has no odds posted are excluded entirely (not shown with placeholder data)

Use this when: you have access to a specific book and want to see which other books offer better prices relative to it — useful for line shopping or evaluating whether a particular book's lines are beatable.

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New: Boost Calculator

The Boost button opens the Boost Calculator. Use this when a sportsbook is running a profit boost on a specific bet type and you want to see the real EV of the boosted odds.

How It Works

1. Select your Boost Book — the book running the promotion
2. Select your Boost % — quick presets: 25%, 30%, 33%, 35%, 50%, 100%. Or enter any custom percentage (1-500%)
3. The Best Odds column updates to show the boosted odds from that book, and EV % and Recc. U recalculate automatically

Example: DraftKings is running a 25% profit boost on MLB player props. You activate DK + 25% in the Boost Calculator. Now any bet you'd normally place at DK odds gets shown with the post-boost payout — so you can see exactly how much edge the boost adds.

When boost is active, the button highlights in yellow and shows your current settings (e.g., "DK +25%"). Click "Clear Boost" to reset.

Note: If you have the boosted book in your Exclude Books list, the boost will not apply — the tool will warn you inside the Boost panel. Remove the book from exclusions first, or clear the boost.

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New: Saved Filters

The Save and Load buttons let you save your current filter configuration to your account and reload it instantly — on any device, any browser, any time.

Saving a Filter Set

Once you have filters configured the way you like — a preset, FV mode, column filters, boost settings, sort order, or any combination — click Save. A small panel opens where you give the set a name (e.g., "Hits Over", "Model Edge HR", "DK Boost 25%"). Hit Save Filters and it's stored to your account.

What gets saved:

• Active preset (e.g., High Confidence, Double Edge)
• FV Mode (Market, Model, or a specific book)
• All column filters (market type, side, EV range, etc.)
• Sort column and direction
• Boost book and percentage (if active)
• Excluded books (if any — for cross-device persistence of your book exclusions)
• Must Include books (if any)

Loading a Saved Filter Set

Click Load to see all your saved filter sets. Each entry shows a short summary of what's in it (preset, FV mode, number of column filters, boost). Click any entry to apply it instantly — all settings restore exactly as you saved them.

To permanently delete a saved set, click the trash icon next to it. A confirmation bar will appear — click Delete to confirm or Cancel to go back. This prevents accidental deletions.

Good Uses for Saved Filters

• Your daily starting point — save your preferred preset + sort so you don't have to reset it every session
• Book-specific views — e.g., "PN Devigged" saves FV mode set to Pinnacle so you can quickly check your edge against PN lines
• Specific market research — save a filter set for a particular market type (e.g., Hits Over, HR Scorer, Pitcher K Over) you return to frequently
• Boost sessions — save a filter set with your active boost book and percentage so you can quickly re-apply it when a promotion is live

Saved filters are tied to your MKB account, so they follow you across devices.

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New: Exclude Books

The Exclude Books button (in the toolbar row) lets you remove specific sportsbooks from the Best Book calculation.

Why Would You Exclude a Book?

The most common reason: you don't have an account at a specific book, or a book has drastically limited your account. If DraftKings has limited you but the Value Finder keeps surfacing DK as the Best Book, your Best Book column becomes meaningless for you — you can't actually place those bets. Excluding DK forces the tool to find the next-best available book you actually have access to.

How It Works

1. Click Exclude Books to open the checklist dropdown
2. Check any books you want to exclude (you can exclude multiple)
3. The Best Book, Best Odds, EV %, and Recc. U columns all recalculate instantly using the next-best available book from the remaining unexcluded books
4. The button turns active and shows a red count badge while any books are excluded

Important: This only affects which book appears as Best Book and the EV/Kelly calculations. The individual book odds columns still show all books, including excluded ones. Fair value (the market consensus) is not changed — only the "best available to you" comparison changes.

Persistence

Excluded books automatically persist — they're saved in your browser's local storage so they're still excluded when you close and reopen the tab, no action required.

For cross-device persistence, include excluded books in a Saved Filter. Loading that saved set will restore your exclusions on any device.

To reset, open the dropdown and click Clear all, or uncheck books individually.

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New: Must Include Books

The Must Include button (in the toolbar row, next to Exclude Books) is the complement to Exclude Books. Instead of removing books from consideration, it filters the table to only show rows where all of your selected books have posted odds on that specific prop.

Why Would You Use Must Include?

The most common reason: you want to bet at a specific book and only see opportunities that book is actively pricing — not just the best odds across all books. If you only want to bet at FanDuel today, filtering with Must Include FD means you'll only see rows where FD has odds posted. No surprises when you go to place the bet and the book isn't offering it.

Another use case: you trust certain books as sharp signals for specific markets. If you only want to bet strikeout props where Pinnacle and DraftKings have both weighed in, Must Include PN + DK enforces that — any K line neither book has priced yet disappears from view.

How It Works

1. Click Must Include to open the checklist dropdown
2. Check any books you require to have odds (you can select multiple)
3. The table instantly filters to only show rows where every selected book has posted odds for that prop — any row missing odds at any of your selected books is hidden
4. The button turns active and shows a green count badge while any books are selected

Important: Must Include is purely a visibility filter — it doesn't change EV calculations, fair value, or which book appears as Best Book. It just hides rows that don't meet your availability requirement.

Difference from Exclude Books

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New: Unit Size Input

The Unit $ input in the toolbar lets you set your unit size in dollars. Once set, the Kelly recommendation columns (which normally show in units) will also display the dollar amounts. Enter your unit size (e.g., $100), and the tool does the math for you.

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New: Parlay HQ

Parlay HQ is a widget that lives at the bottom of the Value Finder — your one-stop shop for building and optimizing parlays. It has two tabs: Build (manually pick your legs) and Optimize (let the math find the best combinations for you).

Adding Legs

Click the + button on any row in the Value Finder (or tap "Add to Parlay" on mobile) to add that opportunity as a leg. Parlay HQ appears at the bottom of the screen showing your selected legs, combined parlay odds, and total implied probability.

You can add between 2 and 6 legs. SGP conflict detection is built in — if two legs are from the same game and would conflict (e.g., the same player Over and Under on the same market), the tool flags it.

The Parlay Optimizer

Instead of manually picking legs, the Optimize tab does the math for you. Switch to the Optimize tab inside Parlay HQ to have it automatically find the best parlay combinations from the current Value Finder data.

How it works:

1. Select your Parlay Book — the book you'll place the parlay at (e.g., FD, DK)
2. Choose your number of legs (2-6)
3. Optionally apply a Boost % if your book is offering a parlay boost promotion
4. Click Find Best Parlays

The optimizer evaluates all valid combinations of legs from your filtered data, calculates the combined parlay odds at your selected book, applies any boost, and ranks results by Expected Value. It shows you the top +EV parlays with:

• Combined parlay odds (pre-boost and post-boost if applicable)
• Total EV %
• Recommended units (Kelly-sized at the boosted price when a boost is active)
• Individual leg details — player, market, side, line, and the game

Click any result card to expand it and see full details for each leg, plus a grid of what the parlay odds would be at every other book — with green highlights on books offering better prices than your selected book.

Respects Your Filters

The optimizer works with whatever filters you already have active — column filters, preset filters, FV mode, excluded books, must-include books, and mobile filters all carry through. If you've filtered to "Hits Overs on FanDuel games only," the optimizer only considers those rows.

Smart Candidate Selection

The optimizer dynamically scales how many candidates it evaluates based on the number of legs you select:

• 2-leg parlays evaluate up to 1,000 candidates
• 3-leg parlays evaluate up to 150
• Higher leg counts scale down to keep evaluation fast

When your dataset is small (under 200 rows) or you have a boost active, the optimizer relaxes its pre-filter and considers all rows with valid odds — not just those that are already +EV on their own. This is important because a boost can turn a marginally -EV combination into a strong +EV parlay.

Best Price on Book Toggle

Check the "Best price on book" toggle to filter results to only show parlays where your selected book has the best (or tied-best) odds compared to all other books. This prevents the optimizer from surfacing parlays that look good on your book but are actually better priced somewhere else.

Exclude Legs

Don't like a specific player or market in your results? Click the X next to any leg in an expanded result card to exclude that player/market combination from future optimizer runs. Excluded legs appear in a list above the results with + restore buttons, and you can Clear All to start fresh. The optimizer recalculates automatically without the excluded legs.

Other Books Comparison Grid

At the bottom of each expanded result card, a grid shows the parlay odds at every other book — so you can gut-check whether your selected book truly has the best price. Books offering better odds than your selected book are highlighted in green for easy spotting.

When to Use the Optimizer

• You have a parlay boost — the optimizer is designed for this. Enter your boost %, and it finds the combinations that maximize your edge with the promotion
• You want the math to pick the best SGP — instead of guessing which legs combine well, let the optimizer find the highest +EV combinations
• You're doing a focused session — filter the Value Finder to a specific game, market type, or book, then optimize within that subset

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Tab 2: Game View

The Game View tab provides comprehensive game matchup context — player projections organized by game with starting pitcher matchups, weather data, park factors, and team-level scoring projections. It's the best place to understand the full context of a slate before diving into individual opportunities.

Day Selector

At the top, switch between Today and Tomorrow to see projections for each date.

MamaBot AI Summary

Below the day selector, an expandable AI-generated summary covers key insights for the day's slate:

• Scoring environment analysis (high-scoring vs. pitcher-dominant matchups)
• Notable pitching matchup mismatches
• Model edge highlights where our projections diverge from market totals
• Weather and park factor callouts

Click the header bar to expand or collapse. It's a great starting point before digging into individual games.

Game Summary Bar

A horizontally scrollable chip bar shows all games for the day. Each chip displays:

• Team matchup (e.g., NYY@BOS)
• Game time
• Model-projected team run totals (heatmapped — green for high projected scoring, red for low)
• Model total vs. market over/under
• Edge indicator (colored if the model diverges significantly from the market)

Click any chip to jump directly to that game's card.

Game Cards

Each game renders as a card with:

Header:

• Team matchups with logos
• Game time
• Projected team run totals (heatmapped)
• Model total vs. market O/U with edge badge (OVER/UNDER/NEUTRAL)

Starting Pitcher Matchup:

• Starting pitcher for each team with handedness (L/R)
• Pitcher tier (Ace, Elite, Above Avg, Average, Below Avg) — color-coded badges
• Pitcher rank among all starters

Weather Section:

• Weather condition emoji and risk level (clear, partly cloudy, rain risk, storm risk)
• Temperature
• Wind speed, direction, and a directional arrow relative to the diamond — showing whether wind is blowing out (favors hitters), blowing in (favors pitchers), or cross-wind (favors pull hitters to one side)
• Weather risk percentage (heatmapped — green for clear, yellow for mild risk, red for high risk)

Park Factor:

• Park factor percentage — how much the venue inflates or suppresses run scoring relative to league average
• Labels: "Great for Runs" (15%+), "Good for Runs" (5-15%), "Neutral" (-5% to 5%), "Suppresses Runs" (-5% to -15%), "Poor for Runs" (-15%+)
• This is critical for MLB — Coors Field can inflate runs by 30%+ while Petco Park suppresses them by 20%

Monte Carlo Team Benchmarks:

• Model probabilities for team run thresholds (e.g., O2.5, O3.5, O4.5 runs)

Player Roster Tables: Each team's batters listed by batting order position:

• Batting order position (heatmapped 1-9)
• Position (colored badge)
• Batter handedness (L/R/S)
• MIQ score (MatchIQ matchup rating)
• Projected Hits, HR, RBIs, Total Bases, Stolen Bases, Runs (all heatmapped across the slate)
• Monte Carlo probability for key thresholds (1+ Hit %, 1+ HR %)

Click any player name to open the full Player Details Panel.

Using Game View Effectively

• Check starting pitchers first — the SP matchup is the single biggest factor in MLB game environments. An Ace vs. a Below Avg pitcher creates a lopsided scoring expectation
• Weather matters for baseball — wind blowing out at Wrigley or Coors creates a completely different environment than wind blowing in. The wind arrow shows this at a glance
• Park factors are critical — a player projected for 0.8 hits at Coors is in a very different situation than 0.8 hits at Petco. Always check the park factor badge
• Use the chip bar — quickly jump to games you care about without scrolling through the entire slate
• Cross-reference batting order — a player batting 2nd with an Ace on the mound against them is a very different bet than the same player batting 2nd against a Below Avg pitcher

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Tab 3: Projections

The Projections tab shows a comprehensive table of all player projections — the same data that powers the Value Finder tooltips and player panels, but in a sortable, filterable table. It has two sub-tabs: Batters and Pitchers.

Day Selector

At the top, switch between Today and Tomorrow to load projections for each date.

Batters Sub-Tab

Player Info Columns:

• Player name, team, opponent, game matchup
• Position (colored badge — C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, LF, CF, RF, DH)
• Batting order position (#)
• Batter handedness (Bat — L/R/S)
• Opposing starting pitcher (vs SP)
• Opposing pitcher handedness (vs)
• Pitcher tier (SP Tier — Ace, Elite, Above Avg, Average, Below Avg)
• MIQ score (MatchIQ matchup rating)

Core Projections (all heatmapped):

• Proj H (Hits), Proj HR, Proj RBI, Proj R (Runs), Proj TB (Total Bases), Proj SB (Stolen Bases)

Monte Carlo Probabilities:

• Hits: 1+ H %, 2+ H %, 3+ H %
• Home Runs: 1+ HR %, 2+ HR %
• RBIs: 1+ RBI %, 2+ RBI %, 3+ RBI %
• Runs: 1+ R %, 2+ R %, 3+ R %
• Total Bases: 1+ TB %, 2+ TB %, 3+ TB %, 4+ TB %, 5+ TB %
• Stolen Bases: 1+ SB %, 2+ SB %
• Singles: 1+ 1B %
• Doubles: 1+ 2B %
• Triples: 1+ 3B %

Pitchers Sub-Tab

Player Info Columns:

• Player name, team, opponent, game matchup
• Pitcher handedness (Hand — L/R)
• Pitcher tier (Ace, Elite, Above Avg, Average, Below Avg)
• Pitcher rank among all starters

Core Projections (all heatmapped):

• Proj K (Strikeouts), Proj IP (Innings Pitched), Proj ER (Earned Runs), Proj HA (Hits Allowed), Proj BB (Walks)
• Note: ER, HA, and BB are inverted heatmaps — lower is better (greener)

Monte Carlo K Probabilities:

• 3+ K %, 4+ K %, 5+ K %, 6+ K %, 7+ K %, 8+ K %, 9+ K %, 10+ K %

Sorting and Filtering

Sort by any column header — most useful to sort by Monte Carlo columns to find players with the highest probability of hitting a specific threshold.

Filter by:

• Team, Opponent, Game — narrow to specific matchups
• Position — C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, LF, CF, RF, DH (batters) or Hand (pitchers)
• Batter/Pitcher handedness
• Pitcher tier

Search by player name using the search box.

Using Monte Carlo Probabilities

The Monte Carlo columns are powerful for prop betting. Compare them to book implied probabilities to find edge:

Example: You're considering Aaron Judge Over 0.5 Home Runs (Anytime HR)

1. Find Judge in the Batters table
2. Check "1+ HR %" — if it shows 32%, that's roughly what the model estimates as the probability
3. Compare to the book's implied probability from the odds
4. If the book implies 25% but our model says 32%, that's potential model edge

Pro tip: Jump straight to the Value Finder → Model Edge preset to see these model-vs-book comparisons already calculated with EV and Kelly — the Projections tab is better for research and manual comparison.

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Tab 4: Special Markets

The Special Markets tab covers MLB-specific prop markets where our model provides unique insight. It has four sub-tabs:

Home Runs

Focused on Home Run scorer markets:

• 1+ HR probability (model + historical hit rate)
• 2+ HR probability for power hitters
• Park HR factor (e.g., Coors +30%, Petco -20%)
• Batter barrel rate vs opposing pitcher hand
• First Home Run scorer markets

Stolen Bases

Focused on stolen base markets:

• 1+ SB probability (model + historical hit rate)
• 2+ SB probability for speed specialists
• Opposing catcher CS% and pop time
• Pitcher pickoff frequency
• Recent SB attempt rates

Strikeouts

Focused on pitcher and batter strikeout props:

• Pitcher K projections with 3+ through 10+ Monte Carlo probabilities
• Batter K props (over/under batter strikeouts)
• Opposing lineup aggregate K rate vs pitcher hand
• Pitcher recent form (last 3 starts K rate)
• Pitch mix analysis (whiff rate by pitch type)

Doubles & Triples

Focused on extra-base hit markets:

• 1+ Double probability (model + historical)
• 2+ Double probability for gap hitters
• 1+ Triple probability
• Park XB factor (doubles/triples adjustment)
• Batter gap power metrics (launch angle + exit velocity)

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Tab 5: Game Logs

The Game Logs tab shows historical player performance for the current season — every game, with full box score stats for both batters and pitchers. This is your tool for verifying recent form and validating projections against actual results.

What You'll See

For each game log entry:

• Date, player name, position, team, opponent, home/away
• Game type (REG, ST, WC, DS, LCS, WS, ASG)
• Batting order position
• Batter stats: Hits, AB, Runs, HR, RBI, BB, K, SB, TB, 2B, 3B, 1B (all heatmapped)
• Pitcher stats: Pitcher K, IP, ER, Hits Allowed, Pitcher BB (all heatmapped, inverted where appropriate — lower ER/HA/BB is greener)

Filters

• Player name search — type any part of a name
• Team — filter to a specific team's players
• Position — C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, LF, CF, RF, DH, SP, RP
• Game Type — filter by Regular Season, Spring Training, Postseason rounds, etc.

Results load progressively — scroll down to load more.

Using Game Logs

• Verify recent form — is a batter on a hot streak? Has a pitcher's K rate dropped recently?
• Check vs opponent — how did this player perform in previous meetings this season?
• Home/away splits — some players perform very differently based on location
• Validate projections — do our model projections align with what you see in recent games?
• Identify role changes — a sudden jump or drop in batting order position can signal a lineup change the projection model might not have fully incorporated yet
• Spring Training vs Regular Season — use the Game Type filter to isolate regular season data for cleaner analysis

Pro tip: Cross-reference game logs with the hit rate data in player tooltips. If a player has been consistently hitting a threshold in recent games AND our model projects them favorably AND the market offers +EV odds, that's a strong multi-signal opportunity.

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Player Panel (Batters)

Click any batter's name anywhere in the suite to open the full Player Details Panel. This is your deep-dive research tool for individual batters.

Header

Shows the player's name, team, position, opponent, and any active injury status or news.

News & Lineup Changes

Recent news items and lineup change alerts for this player — important for catching late scratches, batting order moves, or injury updates.

Today's Projections

A row of projected stat values for today's game: Proj Hits, Proj HR, Proj RBIs, Proj TB, Proj SB — all heatmapped so you can see at a glance where this player stands relative to the typical range.

MKB MatchIQ (MIQ) Score

Our proprietary pitch-level matchup analysis. This is unique to MLB and one of the most powerful features in the suite.

What it measures: The MIQ score evaluates how each pitch in the opposing pitcher's arsenal matches up against this batter's strengths and weaknesses. It's not just "batter vs. pitcher" — it's a pitch-by-pitch breakdown that accounts for the specific pitch types this pitcher throws and how this batter handles each one.

How to read it: Higher MIQ = better matchup for the batter. The score is displayed as a percentile-style bar alongside additional context scores:

• Park Factor — how much the venue impacts this batter's projected production
• Bullpen — the quality of the opposing bullpen (factors in once the SP exits)

MatchIQ Breakdown (Pitch Grid)

Below the MIQ score, a detailed pitch-by-pitch grid shows every pitch type in the opposing pitcher's arsenal:

• Pitch Type — 4-Seam, Sinker, Slider, Curve, Change, etc.
• Frequency — how often the pitcher throws this pitch
• Pitcher Barrel % — how often this pitcher gives up barrels on this pitch (heatmapped — green = pitcher is barrel-prone on this pitch, good for batter)
• Batter Barrel % — how often this batter barrels up this pitch type (heatmapped — green = batter crushes this pitch)
• Exit Velocity — pitcher's avg exit velo allowed and batter's avg exit velo on this pitch type
• Launch Angle — pitcher's avg launch angle allowed and batter's avg launch angle
• Contribution — how much this pitch type contributes to the overall MIQ score

This grid tells you exactly why a matchup is favorable or unfavorable — not just that it is.

Season Stats

Two rows of heatmapped season statistics:

• Row 1: GP, AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS, 1+ Hit Rate %
• Row 2: H/G, HR/G, RBI/G, R/G, TB/G, SB/G

Hit Rates

A table comparing season-to-date hit rates against model (Monte Carlo) probabilities for key thresholds:

• Hits: 1+, 2+, 3+
• Home Runs: 1+
• RBIs: 1+, 2+
• Total Bases: 1+, 2+, 3+
• Stolen Bases: 1+

For each threshold, you see the season hit rate (how often it has actually happened) alongside the model's projected probability for today. Discrepancies between the two can reveal whether recent form supports or contradicts the model.

Charts

Interactive charts showing game-by-game performance with reference lines for season average and today's projection:

• Hits per game (bar chart)
• Total Bases per game (bar chart)
• Home Runs per game (bar chart)
• RBIs, Runs, Stolen Bases, Strikeouts, Walks (bar charts)
• 5-game rolling average trend lines for Hits, Total Bases, and Home Runs

Game Logs

A compact game log table showing the most recent games with key stats (H, AB, R, HR, RBI, BB, K, SB, TB, 2B, 3B).

All Props

At the bottom, a consolidated view of all active Value Finder opportunities for this player across all markets — so you can see every available bet in one place without going back to the main table.

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Pitcher Panel

Click any pitcher's name anywhere in the suite to open the Pitcher Panel. This is a separate, pitcher-specific layout with different sections than the batter panel.

Today's Projections

Projected stat values for today's start: Proj K, Proj IP, Proj ER, Proj Hits Allowed, Proj BB — all heatmapped (inverted for negative stats so lower ER is greener).

Monte Carlo K Probabilities

A row of heatmapped probability badges for each K threshold: 3+ K %, 4+ K %, 5+ K %, 6+ K %, 7+ K %, 8+ K %, 9+ K %, 10+ K %. This tells you at a glance how likely this pitcher is to hit each strikeout benchmark today.

Pitch Arsenal

A detailed breakdown of the pitcher's pitch arsenal from Statcast data, shown by batter handedness (toggle between vs. RHB and vs. LHB):

For each pitch type:

• Usage % — how often they throw it
• Velocity — average speed
• Spin Rate — RPM
• Barrel % — how often batters barrel this pitch (heatmapped)
• Exit Velo — average exit velocity against this pitch
• Launch Angle — average launch angle
• BA — batting average against this pitch
• wOBA — weighted on-base average against
• K % — strikeout rate with this pitch
• Whiff % — swing-and-miss rate

This helps you understand which pitches are dominant and which are vulnerable — critical for evaluating strikeout props and whether a pitcher will go deep into a game.

Charts

• Strikeouts per start (bar chart)
• Innings Pitched per start (bar chart)
• Earned Runs per start (bar chart)
• 5-start rolling K average (trend line)

Recent Starts (Game Logs)

A table of the pitcher's recent starts showing date, opponent, K, IP, ER, hits allowed, walks, and result.

All Props

All active Value Finder opportunities for this pitcher across all markets.

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Common Scenarios

New to the suite? Here are the most common things people want to do and exactly how to accomplish them.

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"I want to see the best bets available right now"

1. Go to the Value Finder tab
2. Make sure FV Mode is set to Market FV (the default)
3. Click the High Confidence preset
4. The table is already sorted by Conf. Adj. Recc. U — highest value at the top
5. Hover over any player name for a quick sanity check (model projection + hit rate)

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"I only have access to certain books — I want to ignore the ones I can't use"

1. Click Exclude Books in the toolbar
2. Check every book you don't have an account at (e.g., PN, RB, BV)
3. Best Book, EV %, and Recc. U instantly recalculate to show your next-best available option
4. To make this permanent: click Save, name it something like "My Books", and Load it at the start of each session. It also auto-saves in your browser so it'll still be set when you come back.

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"A sportsbook is running a profit boost — how do I evaluate it?"

1. Click Boost in the toolbar
2. Select the book running the promotion (e.g., DK)
3. Select the boost percentage (e.g., 25%)
4. Every row now shows the post-boost EV and Recc. U for DK — positive EV rows are worth considering
5. When you're done, click Clear Boost to return to normal

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"I want to find bets where Pinnacle's devigged odds say there's value at other books"

1. Click FV Mode in the toolbar
2. Select PN under "Single Book (Devigged)"
3. The table now shows EV and Recc. U calculated using Pinnacle's devigged odds as fair value
4. Only rows where Pinnacle has posted odds are shown — these are the most liquid, sharp-market-confirmed lines
5. Sort by Recc. U to find the largest edges relative to PN

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"I want to see what our model thinks, not just the market"

1. Click FV Mode and select Model FV
2. Or click the Model Edge preset to filter for rows where the model sees positive EV
3. For the gold standard: try Double Edge — this shows only bets where BOTH the market AND the model agree there's edge

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"I want to research a specific player before betting"

1. In the Value Finder tab, type the player's name in the player search/filter
2. Hover over their name to see a quick tooltip: model probability, hit rate, MIQ score
3. Click their name to open the full Player Details Panel: MIQ breakdown, pitch grid, season stats, hit rates, charts
4. Switch to the Game View tab to see them in context of their game — check the opposing SP, weather, and park factor
5. Switch to Game Logs to check their recent form

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"I want to check if a prop has been hitting lately before I bet it"

1. Find the opportunity in the Value Finder
2. Hover over the Line value (desktop) or tap the line value (mobile) to open the line breakdown
3. Click VF History inside that panel
4. A table shows every time this exact prop (same player, market, line, side) appeared in the VF over the past 10 days, with the result (Hit / Miss / DNP / Pending)

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"I want to find HR opportunities at hitter-friendly parks"

1. Go to the Game View tab
2. Look at the Park Factor badge on each game card — focus on games at hitter-friendly parks (green "Great for Runs" or "Good for Runs" badges)
3. Note the weather too — wind blowing out amplifies the park effect
4. Identify batters with high MIQ scores and favorable batting order positions (1-5) in those games
5. Switch to the Value Finder tab and filter by those players' names or by Game
6. Check the Home Runs and Total Bases opportunities for those players

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"I want to find K props for dominant pitchers"

1. Go to the Projections tab and switch to the Pitchers sub-tab
2. Sort by Proj K or one of the Monte Carlo K columns (e.g., 6+ K %)
3. Look for pitchers with Ace or Elite tier, high K projections, and favorable opponent matchups
4. Click the pitcher name to open the Pitcher Panel and check their pitch arsenal and recent starts
5. Switch to the Value Finder and filter by Market = "Pitcher Strikeouts" to find +EV K props

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"I want to save my setup so I don't have to reconfigure every session"

1. Set everything up the way you like: preset, FV mode, excluded books, sort, any column filters
2. Click Save and give it a name (e.g., "Daily Setup", "Hits Over")
3. Next session, click Load and select it — everything restores instantly
4. Saved filters sync to your MKB account, so they work on any device

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"I want context on which games are good scoring environments today"

1. Go to the Game View tab
2. Read the MamaBot AI summary at the top for a slate overview
3. Check the Game Summary Bar chips — each shows the model's projected total vs the market O/U. Chips with OVER badges = model projects more scoring than the market expects
4. Look at SP matchups — games where a Below Avg pitcher faces a strong lineup create scoring opportunities
5. Check weather and park factors — wind blowing out at a hitter-friendly park is the ideal combination
6. Click any chip to jump to that game's card and see player projections by team

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Putting It All Together: A Full Workflow

Here's how to combine the tabs into a complete pre-bet research flow:

Step 1: Start with Game View

Open the Game View tab to get context on today's slate. Read the MamaBot AI summary. Note which games the model projects as high-scoring vs. pitcher-dominant. Check SP matchups — a weak pitcher against a strong lineup creates opportunities. Check weather (wind direction matters!) and park factors. Identify players with high MIQ scores batting in the top half of the order.

Step 2: Check Player Projections

Switch to the Projections tab. Sort by the stat category you're interested in (e.g., 1+ HR % or 2+ H %) to find players the model is high on. Toggle between Batters and Pitchers sub-tabs. Note pitcher tiers — batters facing Below Avg pitchers in hitter-friendly parks are prime targets.

Step 3: Check Special Markets

If you're interested in specific prop types, visit the Special Markets tab. Check Home Runs for park-adjusted HR probabilities, Stolen Bases for speed plays, Strikeouts for K props with pitch-level analysis, or Doubles & Triples for extra-base hit opportunities.

Step 4: Find Value Opportunities

Go to the Value Finder tab. Start with your preferred preset (High Confidence for conservative plays, or Model Edge / Double Edge for model-confirmed opportunities). In Market FV mode, sort by Conf. Adj. Recc. U to see the best-confidence plays.

Step 5: Validate the Opportunity

Hover over the player name in the Value Finder to see the quick tooltip — does the model projection support the bet? Is the MIQ score favorable? Is the hit rate positive? If both edge indicators are green, that's a strong multi-signal confirmation.

Click the player name to open the full Player Details Panel. For batters, check the pitch grid to understand why the matchup is favorable. For pitchers, check the arsenal and recent starts.

Step 6: Check Game Logs (Optional)

If you're on the fence, flip to Game Logs and look at recent performance. Is the batter on a hot streak? Has the pitcher's K rate been trending up or down? Are there any patterns worth noting?

Step 7: Check Sparklines Before Betting

Before placing, hover over the Best Odds value in the Value Finder to check the sparkline. Is the line moving in your favor or against you? Has there been a steam move recently that might mean the opportunity is disappearing?

Step 8: Execute

Place your bet at the Best Book shown, at the odds shown. If the odds have moved slightly since you loaded the table, recalculate your stake accordingly (or just hit Refresh to see the latest data).

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Quick Tips

Sort by Conf. Adj. Recc. U (in Market FV mode) — it's the most reliable single signal for prioritizing plays.

Use presets as shortcuts — High Confidence for bread-and-butter plays. Outlier Opportunities to find mispricings. Model Edge + Double Edge for model-validated plays.

FV Mode default is Market FV — don't change this unless you specifically want to evaluate model-vs-book opportunities. Model FV is more aggressive and less conservative.

Check SPs in Game View — the starting pitcher matchup is the single biggest factor in MLB props. A batter facing a Below Avg pitcher has a fundamentally different projection than the same batter facing an Ace.

Park factors are critical — Coors Field and Yankee Stadium inflate offense significantly, while Petco Park and Oracle Park suppress it. Always check Game View park factor badges before betting.

Weather matters — wind blowing out at a hitter-friendly park is the perfect storm for home run and total bases props. Wind blowing in suppresses offense. The Game View wind arrow shows this at a glance.

Use the MIQ pitch grid — this is unique to MLB. Don't just look at the top-line MIQ score — open the player panel and check the pitch-by-pitch breakdown to understand why a matchup is good or bad. A batter who crushes sliders facing a slider-heavy pitcher is a different story than one who struggles with them.

Toggle Player Info for context — turn on the Player Info columns to see batting order, handedness, and opposing pitcher directly in the Value Finder table. A batter batting 2nd vs. a Below Avg RHP is a much stronger play than a batter batting 8th vs. an Ace LHP, even at the same EV.

Boost Calculator before promotions expire — check your book's app for active profit boosts and enter them in the Boost Calculator to see the real EV before deciding whether to use the boost.

Save your daily starting point — use Save to store your preferred preset, FV mode, and sort. Click Load at the start of each session to restore it instantly without reconfiguring from scratch.

Bookmark the suite URL — it lives at /dashboard/mlb-tool-suite. The tab you're on stays in the URL, so you can bookmark specific tabs too.

Refresh before betting — the tool auto-refreshes every ~2 minutes but always worth a manual refresh right before you bet to confirm the odds are still accurate.

Exclude the books you don't have — if you're limited at certain books, set up Exclude Books once and save it as a filter. Your Best Book and EV columns will always reflect what's actually available to you.

Use VF History before betting a repeating prop — if the same line has been surfacing for 4-5 days and keeps missing, that's worth knowing. Consistent recent hits + positive model edge + market EV is the strongest possible combination of signals.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What's the difference between the Value Finder and the Projections tab?

The Value Finder finds bets where the market odds are better than the market consensus fair value — it's purely about whether you're getting a good price relative to what the sharp market thinks. The Projections tab shows what our model estimates for each player, independent of market odds. They're complementary: Value Finder finds the mathematical edge, Projections provide the model context.

When should I use Model FV vs Market FV?

Market FV (default) is recommended for most users — it's the more conservative, battle-tested methodology. Model FV is useful when you specifically want to bet on our model's probability estimates rather than market consensus, or when looking for opportunities the market might be underpricing. Always treat Model FV as an additional signal, not a replacement for the market-based approach.

What is the MIQ (MatchIQ) score?

MIQ is our proprietary pitch-level matchup analysis. It evaluates how each pitch in the opposing pitcher's arsenal matches up against this batter's strengths and weaknesses — factoring in barrel rates, exit velocity, and launch angle on each specific pitch type. A high MIQ score means the batter historically performs well against the types of pitches this pitcher throws. It's one of the most unique features of the MLB model because it goes beyond simple "batter vs. pitcher" stats to analyze the pitch-type-level interaction.

Why do park factors matter so much in MLB?

MLB is uniquely affected by venue. Coors Field (Colorado) can inflate run scoring by 30%+ due to altitude and thin air, while Petco Park (San Diego) suppresses offense significantly. This affects hits, home runs, total bases, and runs scored. A player's projection is materially different depending on the park, and the model accounts for this — but it's always worth double-checking in Game View.

How do weather conditions affect my bets?

Wind direction relative to the diamond is the biggest weather factor. Wind blowing out to center field favors hitters (more home runs, higher total bases). Wind blowing in from center field favors pitchers (fly balls die, fewer extra-base hits). Temperature also matters — balls carry farther in warm weather. Rain risk can delay or shorten games, which affects pitcher props (fewer innings = fewer K opportunities).

What does the pitcher tier (Ace, Elite, etc.) mean?

Pitcher tiers rank starting pitchers based on our model's assessment of their overall quality. Ace is the top tier, followed by Elite, Above Average, Average, and Below Average. This ranking factors into both the opposing batters' projections (harder to hit against an Ace) and the pitcher's own projections (an Ace is more likely to go deep and rack up Ks). Always visible in Game View and the Projections Pitchers sub-tab.

How often does the data update?

The Value Finder updates every ~15 minutes during the day (6am-10pm EST), hourly overnight. Projections and game data update each morning before games and again when lineup news comes in. Game Logs update the day after each game.

Found an issue?

Email hilary@mama-knows-bets.com or DM via X or Discord. The suite is actively developed and we take bug reports seriously.

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Ready to explore? Head to the MLB Tool Suite and start with the Value Finder tab.