How To Use the MLB Profitability Suite: A Complete Guide

Part of the Mama Knows Bets Education Series. See also: What is +EV Betting?, Bankroll Basics, How to Use the MLB Tool Suite, and How to Use the Value Finders Results Dashboard.

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What is the MLB Profitability Suite?

The MLB Profitability Suite is our unified dashboard for tracking betting performance across all three MLB opportunity types: Value Finder, Model, and Double Edge. It processes every bet we identified, matches it against actual game results, and calculates whether it hit or missed — with full P/L tracking.

In simple terms: it answers "how are our MLB picks actually performing?" with real data, not vibes.

Unlike the individual tool suite (which shows you today's opportunities), the Profitability Suite shows you historical results — every bet that was tracked, whether it hit, and how much you'd have made or lost following the recommendations.

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The Three Tracking Tabs

The dashboard has three top-level tabs, each tracking a different source of opportunities:

Each tab has the same 7 sub-tabs for analysis, but the data and Kelly calculations are specific to that opportunity type.

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Summary Cards

At the top of every tab, you'll see three summary cards:

• Yesterday — Results from the most recent date with data
• Last 7 Days — Rolling 7-day performance (dates with games, not calendar days)
• Last 30 Days — Rolling 30-day performance

Each card shows:

• P/L in units (green = profit, red = loss)
• Bets — total number of settled bets
• Hit Rate — percentage of bets that hit
• ROI — return on investment (P/L divided by total Kelly stake)

The cards are labeled with which Kelly type they use (e.g., "Conf-Adjusted Kelly" for VF, "Kelly" for Model/Double Edge).

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Global Kelly Filter

Below the summary cards, you'll see a row of filter buttons: All | >=0.10u | >=0.20u | >=0.30u | >=0.40u | >=0.50u

This filters ALL data across every sub-tab to only include bets where the Kelly stake met the selected threshold. This is useful for seeing how performance changes when you only take higher-conviction bets.

For example, selecting >=0.20u will only show bets where the recommended Kelly stake was at least 0.20 units — filtering out smaller, lower-confidence opportunities.

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By Sportsbook

Shows profitability broken down by which sportsbook had the best odds.

Key columns:

• Bets / Hits / Hit Rate — volume and accuracy
• Kelly P/L — total profit/loss if following Kelly-sized bets
• Kelly ROI — return on investment percentage

Drill-down: Click any sportsbook row to expand and see the market breakdown within that book. For example, expand "DraftKings" to see how Hits, Home Runs, Stolen Bases, etc. performed specifically at DK.

Date range filter: Use the All / Last 7d / Last 14d / Last 30d buttons to narrow the time window.

On the Value Finder tab, you'll see both Conf-Adjusted and Standard Kelly columns.

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By Market

Same structure as By Sportsbook, but grouped by market type (Hits, Home Runs, RBIs, Pitcher Ks, etc.).

Drill-down: Click any market row to expand and see the book breakdown within that market. For example, expand "Home Runs" to see which sportsbooks have been most profitable for HR props.

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Book x Market

A flat table showing every sportsbook + market combination that has at least 5 bets. This lets you find specific edges like "Pitcher Ks on FanDuel" or "Stolen Bases on DraftKings."

Sorted by Kelly ROI by default — the most profitable combos float to the top.

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By Date

Shows daily performance with two charts and a table:

Charts (side by side):

1. Cumulative Kelly P/L — A line chart showing your running total P/L over time. On the VF tab, this shows two lines: Conf-Adjusted Kelly (solid) and Standard Kelly (dashed).
2. Daily ROI % — A bar chart showing each day's ROI percentage, colored green for positive days and red for negative.

Table: Below the charts, a sortable table with each date's bets, hits, hit rate, P/L, and ROI.

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Daily Bets

The most detailed view — every individual bet with full details:

• Player name, market, side, line
• Sportsbook and odds
• Result (Hit/Miss)
• Kelly P/L (Conf and Std on VF tab)

Use the date dropdown to filter to a specific day. Sortable by any column.

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Kelly Analysis

A heatmap-style grid showing ROI at different Kelly threshold levels for each sportsbook.

Rows: Each sportsbook Columns: Kelly thresholds (All, >=0.10, >=0.15, >=0.20, >=0.25, >=0.30, >=0.40, >=0.50, >=0.75, >=1.0)

Each cell shows the ROI % and number of bets in parentheses, colored with a heatmap — green for positive ROI, red for negative.

Use the market dropdown to filter to specific market types.

This tab answers questions like: "What's my ROI on DraftKings if I only take bets with Kelly >= 0.30?"

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Cohort Analyzer

The most flexible analysis tool — build custom filters to analyze any slice of data.

Available filters:

• Start/End Date — specific date range
• Book — filter to one sportsbook
• Market — filter to one market type
• Side — Over, Under, or Yes
• Min/Max Odds — American odds range
• Min Kelly — minimum Kelly threshold

Click Analyze to see:

1. Summary stats cards (Bets, Hit Rate, P/L, ROI)
2. Full detailed table of matching bets

Click Clear to reset all filters.

Example uses:

• "How do Over bets on FanDuel perform for Home Runs?"
• "What's my ROI on bets with odds between +150 and +300?"
• "How do high-Kelly (>=0.50) bets perform across all books?"

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Confidence-Adjusted vs Standard Kelly

On the Value Finder tab, you'll see two Kelly metrics:

Conf-Adjusted Kelly is generally more conservative — it reduces your stake when there's less market agreement, which helps protect against false edges. Standard Kelly assumes the fair value calculation is perfectly accurate.

Both are tracked so you can see how each approach performs over time. Most users should focus on Conf-Adjusted Kelly for actual betting decisions.

Model and Double Edge tabs use a single Kelly metric each (Model Kelly and Blended Kelly respectively), since they have their own confidence mechanisms built in.

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Frequently Asked Questions

How often is the data updated? Profitability results are processed daily at 6am ET as part of the morning pipeline. Yesterday's game results are matched against the opportunities that were identified, and the dashboard updates automatically.

Why do some bets show as DNP? DNP (Did Not Play) means the player didn't appear in the game log — either they were scratched, didn't play, or there was a data matching issue. DNP bets are excluded from hit rate and P/L calculations.

What's the difference between this and the VF Results Dashboard? The VF Results Dashboard (available for NBA/NHL) only tracks Value Finder opportunities. The Profitability Suite tracks VF, Model, AND Double Edge opportunities all in one place, with more analysis tools like Kelly Analysis and Cohort Analyzer.

Can I see results for a specific date range? Yes! Use the date range buttons on the By Sportsbook/By Market tabs, the date dropdown on Daily Bets, or the full date range filter in the Cohort Analyzer.

What does the Kelly filter at the top do? It filters all data globally to only include bets where the Kelly stake met the selected minimum. This lets you see how performance changes when you're more selective about which bets to take.