How To Use the Profitability Suite: A Complete Guide

The Profitability Suite is where you check how our picks have actually performed. It works the same way in every sport, so once you've learned one suite you've learned them all.

What is the Profitability Suite?#

The Profitability Suite tracks betting performance for each kind of opportunity our tools find: Value Finder, Model and Double Edge. Every sport with a Value Finder has its own suite, and they all work the same way.

Every bet we identify gets matched against actual game results to determine whether it hit or missed, with full P/L tracking. Where a book's own settlement rule can be checked from the box score (first basket field goal vs point, NHL first goal in overtime, MLB early exits and non-starting pitchers), each bet is graded on that book's rule. See Book Settlement Notes.

In simple terms: it answers "how are our picks actually performing?" with real data, not vibes.

Unlike the tool suites (which show you today's opportunities), the Profitability Suite shows you historical results: every bet that was tracked, whether it hit, and how much you'd have made or lost following the recommendations.

Quick links:

• MLB Profitability Suite
• NFL Profitability Suite
• NBA Profitability Suite
• NHL Profitability Suite
• WNBA Profitability Suite
• Soccer Profitability Suite
• NCAAF Profitability Suite
• NCAAB Profitability Suite

The Tracking Tabs#

Across the top of each suite are the tabs, each tracking a different source of opportunities:

Model and Double Edge appear only in sports where we have a projection model.

On the Value Finder tab, a switch underneath lets you choose Props (player props) or Main Lines (moneylines, spreads, totals and their alternates). Main Lines results are graded the same way as props.

Every tab has the same set of analysis sub-tabs, but the data and Kelly calculations are specific to that opportunity type.

How Each Bet Is Counted#

The boards update many times a day, so the same bet can show up in lots of snapshots. Each unique bet is counted once, from one chosen snapshot, so results aren't inflated. On the Value Finder tab we take the first snapshot where the bet had a solid stake and enough books pricing it; on Model and Double Edge, the first snapshot where the model saw a solid edge. Click a bet's Selected (ET) time on Daily Bets to see every snapshot and which rule picked it. The Value Finder Results guide explains why this matters.

Summary Cards#

At the top of every tab, you'll see three summary cards:

• Yesterday: results from the most recent date with data
• Last 7 Days: the last seven calendar days
• Last 30 Days: the last thirty calendar days

Each card shows:

• P/L in units (green = profit, red = loss)
• Bets: total number of settled bets
• Hit Rate: percentage of bets that hit
• ROI: return on investment (P/L divided by total Kelly stake)

The cards are labeled with the Kelly type they use ("Conf-Adjusted Kelly" on the Value Finder tab, "Kelly" on Model and Double Edge).

Once a sport's season is over, its suite says so: a note marks the results as final for that season, and the cards read Final Day, Season's Last 7 Days and Season's Last 30 Days.

Global Filters: Min Kelly and Min Books#

Above the summary cards is a row of Min Kelly buttons, from All up through rising stake thresholds. On the Value Finder tab there's also a row of Min Books buttons.

These filter ALL data across every sub-tab: Min Kelly keeps only bets where the recommended stake met the threshold, and Min Books keeps only bets that enough books were pricing. They're useful for seeing how performance changes when you only take higher-conviction bets, or only well-covered lines.

For example, selecting ≥0.2u shows only bets where the recommended Kelly stake was at least 0.20 units, filtering out smaller, lower-confidence opportunities.

By Sportsbook#

Shows profitability broken down by which sportsbook had the best odds.

Key columns:

• Bets / Hits / Hit Rate: volume and accuracy
• Kelly P/L: total profit/loss if following Kelly-sized bets
• Kelly ROI: return on investment percentage

Drill-down (four levels): Click any sportsbook row to expand and see the market breakdown within that book. Then click any market to see the side breakdown (Over vs Under as separate summary rows). Finally, click a side to see each individual line (Over 5.5, Over 6.5, etc.) with its own P/L and ROI. This lets you drill all the way down to pinpoint exactly which lines at which books are driving your results.

Date range: Use the date buttons (Yesterday, Last 7d, Last 14d, Last 30d and so on) to narrow the time window.

On the Value Finder tab, you'll see both Conf-Adjusted and Standard Kelly columns.

By Market#

Same structure as By Sportsbook, but grouped by market type (Points, Assists, Goals, Hits, etc. depending on sport).

Drill-down (four levels): Click any market row to expand and see the side breakdown (Over vs Under). Then click a side to see each individual line, and click a line to see the book breakdown.

Book × Market#

A flat table showing every sportsbook + market combination. This lets you find specific edges like "Pitcher Ks on FanDuel" or "Points on DraftKings."

Sorted by Kelly ROI by default, so the most profitable combos float to the top. Filter by Book, Market, Side and Line, and use Min Bets to hide combinations with too small a sample. You can also set minimum and maximum Hit%, P/L and ROI%.

By Date#

Shows daily performance with two charts and a table:

Charts (side by side):

1. Cumulative Kelly P/L: a line chart of your running total P/L over time. On the Value Finder tab it shows two lines: Conf-Adjusted Kelly (solid) and Standard Kelly (dashed).
2. Daily ROI %: a bar chart of each day's ROI, green for positive days and red for negative.

Table: Below the charts, a sortable table with each date's bets, hits, hit rate, P/L and ROI. Filter by Book, Market, Side and Line.

Daily Bets#

The most detailed view: every individual bet with full details.

• Player (or the pick, on Main Lines), market, side, line
• Sportsbook and odds
• Kelly stake
• Result (Hit/Miss)
• Kelly P/L (Conf and Std on the Value Finder tab)
• Selected (ET): when the snapshot we counted was taken. Click it to see every snapshot the bet appeared in with a stake, and the price journey.
• Open, Close and CLV: the first real price posted on the line, the book's closing price, and your closing line value (the bet's price against that close). Hover any of them for the details.

Use the Date, Book, Market, Side and Line filters to narrow it down. Every column sorts, and the export button downloads what you're looking at.

Show excluded bets also lists the bets a tab leaves out of its P/L (for example, an outsized one-off stake, a bet with no edge left after an exchange's fee, or a thin exchange price), each with its reason. They're shown for completeness and never counted in the totals.

Kelly Analysis#

A heatmap-style grid showing ROI at different Kelly threshold levels for each sportsbook.

Rows: Each sportsbook Columns: Kelly thresholds, from All up through increasing minimum stakes

Each cell shows the ROI % and number of bets in parentheses, colored with a heatmap: green for positive ROI, red for negative.

Use the market dropdown to filter to specific market types.

This tab answers questions like: "What's my ROI on DraftKings if I only take bets with Kelly >= 0.30?"

Cohort Analyzer#

The most flexible analysis tool: build custom filters to analyze any slice of data.

Available filters:

• Start/End Date: a specific date range
• Book: one sportsbook
• Market: one market type
• Side: Over, Under or Yes (Home, Away, Draw, Over or Under on Main Lines)
• Line: one line value
• Min/Max Odds: an American odds range
• Min Kelly: a minimum Kelly threshold

Click Analyze to see:

1. Summary stats cards (Bets, Hit Rate, P/L, ROI, with both Conf and Std Kelly on the Value Finder tab)
2. A full detailed table of matching bets

Click Clear to reset all filters.

Example uses:

• "How do Over bets on FanDuel perform for Points?"
• "What's my ROI on bets with odds between +150 and +300?"
• "How do high-Kelly (>=0.50) bets perform across all books?"

Confidence-Adjusted vs Standard Kelly#

On the Value Finder tab, you'll see two Kelly metrics throughout:

Conf-Adjusted Kelly is generally more conservative: it reduces your stake when there's less market agreement, which helps protect against false edges. Standard Kelly assumes the fair value calculation is perfectly accurate.

Both are tracked so you can see how each approach performs over time. Most users should focus on Conf-Adjusted Kelly for actual betting decisions.

Model and Double Edge use a single Kelly metric each, since they have their own confidence built in.

Grading Change Log#

At the bottom of every suite is a Grading change log: a dated list of every change that affected how past bets are graded, newest first, with its effect on the totals where it applies. We'd rather show you when and why the numbers moved than quietly rewrite them. Some tabs also carry a short note at the top when a grading rule changed partway through the data.

Frequently Asked Questions#

How often is the data updated? Results are processed every morning. Yesterday's game results are matched against the opportunities that were identified, and the suite updates automatically.

Why do some bets show as DNP? DNP (Did Not Play) means the player didn't appear in the game log: they were scratched, didn't play, or there was a data matching issue. DNP bets are excluded from hit rate and P/L calculations.

Can I see results for a specific date range? Yes! Use the date range buttons on the By Sportsbook and By Market tabs, the date dropdown on Daily Bets, or the full date range filter in the Cohort Analyzer.

What do the Min Kelly and Min Books buttons at the top do? They filter all data to only include bets where the Kelly stake (or the number of books pricing the line) met the selected minimum. This lets you see how performance changes when you're more selective about which bets to take.

Is it the same across all sports? Yes. Every suite works the same way. The differences are the sport-specific market names (e.g., "Points" in NBA vs "Goals" in NHL vs "Hits" in MLB), and Model and Double Edge appear only where the sport has a projection model.