How To Use the MLB Tool Suite: A Complete Guide

This guide walks through every tab of the MLB Tool Suite, for anyone betting MLB props, game lines, home runs or same-game parlays. The Value Finder columns, sparklines and line movement work the same in every sport, so for those I'll point you to the Value Finders guide and focus here on what's specific to baseball.

What is the MLB Tool Suite?#

The MLB Tool Suite is our MLB analysis platform, a set of connected tools in one place, designed to take you from "what does the market think?" all the way through "what does our model think?", "how has a player been performing lately?", and "how does each batter match up pitch-by-pitch against today's pitcher?"

In simple terms: it's everything you need to find, validate, and track MLB betting opportunities, all in one place.

The Tabs#

You can navigate between tabs by clicking the tab bar, and the URL updates automatically (e.g., ?tab=game-view). This means you can bookmark or share a specific tab directly.

Navigating the Suite#

The Header#

At the top of every page you'll find:

• ⚾ MLB Tool Suite, the suite title, always visible
• 📖 How-To Guide, which links to this guide
• 📊 Profitability Suite and 🏆 Best of All Suite, shortcuts to those tools
• 📚 Book Key, a quick reference for all sportsbook abbreviations (PN = Pinnacle, FD = FanDuel, DK = DraftKings, etc.)
• Light/Dark toggle, to switch themes at any time

On mobile, the links collapse into a "···" menu to keep the header clean.

The Tab Bar#

The tab bar lives just below the header. Click any tab to switch. Your position within the current tab is remembered, so you don't lose your place if you switch and come back.

Value Finder#

The Value Finder is the core betting tool. It scans odds across the major sportsbooks and exchanges, calculates fair value based on sharp book consensus, and shows you bets where you're getting better odds than the true probability suggests.

In simple terms: it finds bets where the math is on your side.

The columns, the value metrics and how to read them are the same in every sport, and the Value Finders guide covers them in full. MLB markets include Hits, Home Runs, RBIs, Runs, Total Bases, Stolen Bases, Pitcher Strikeouts and more; the Game column shows the matchup as e.g. NYY@BOS.

Book Odds and Settlement Rules#

Each book has its own odds column, with the Best Book(s) highlighted in green. Click 📚 Book Key in the header for the full list of abbreviations. Exchange fees (shown with a small fee tag) and the ⚠️ "price looks wrong" marker work exactly as described in Individual Book Odds.

Book rules that change how MLB props settle. A * on a book's column header means it has a house rule here; hover to read it. Two worth knowing:

• Early exits: DraftKings and Fanatics void a starting batter's props if he leaves before his 2nd plate appearance.
• Pitchers behind an opener: books differ. Most void the pitcher's props because he didn't start; the Kambi-powered books, Novig, and FanDuel's "Relief Strikeouts" market let them stand once he pitches.

Our results follow each book's own rule. See Book Settlement Notes for the full list.

FV Mode and Recc. U Columns#

EV % is your mathematical edge: EV 5% means for every $100 bet long-term, you expect to profit $5 (more on EV). The Recc. U (recommended units) columns are dynamic: they update based on which FV Mode you have selected.

Market FV (default): Two columns appear:

• Conf. Adj. Recc. U: Kelly size scaled down based on how many (and which) books are reporting odds. If Pinnacle and plenty of other books are reporting, we're very confident. If only two or three soft books? Less confident. This column builds in a buffer so you don't over-bet on potentially unreliable fair values. This is the recommended column to sort by.
• Std. Recc. U: the pure Kelly math, Best Odds vs Market Fair Odds, quarter Kelly. Always >= Conf. Adj. Recc. U.

Model FV: A single blue column:

• Model Recc. U: Kelly calculated against model-derived fair value instead of market consensus

Book FV (any individual sportsbook): A single blue column:

• Recc. U vs. [BOOK]: Kelly calculated using that book's odds as the fair value benchmark. Only rows where that specific book has posted odds are shown.

Double Edge preset: Three colored columns appear simultaneously:

• Model Recc. U (blue): Kelly vs model fair value
• Market Recc. U (indigo): Kelly vs market fair value
• 💎 DE Recc. U (purple): a conservative combination of model and market Kelly using a harmonic mean, which penalizes disagreement between the two signals and pulls toward the lower value

My recommendation for most users: stick to Market FV and sort by Conf. Adj. Recc. U. It's the most conservative, most reliable metric. The difference between the two Market columns is explained in Confidence Recc. U vs Standard Recc. U.

For more on bankroll management and what your unit should be, read Bankroll Basics.

Preset Filters#

Preset buttons at the top of the tab surface curated subsets of opportunities:

• High Confidence: opportunities with high Confidence Recc. U values and strong coverage; the cream of the crop
• Value Long Shots: longer-odds opportunities with solid EV and coverage, lottery tickets with actual math behind them
• Outlier Opportunities: bets where one book is significantly out of line with the market (high % vs Next); potentially mispriced lines to grab before they correct
• Model Edge: bets where our model sees positive EV, regardless of current FV mode. Use this to find spots where our model disagrees with the market in your favor
• Double Edge: opportunities where BOTH the market AND our model agree there's edge, the highest-confidence plays. This preset locks FV mode to Market and shows the three Recc. U columns above. For best results, refresh the page before applying Double Edge to ensure all projection data has loaded.
• 🔥 Steaming +EV: lines that are still +EV and that the market has been shortening, biggest moves first. Opens the Movement columns too. See Line Movement (Steaming).

Click any preset to apply it. Click again or Clear to reset. The Value Finders guide has more on each one.

Toolbar Buttons#

The toolbar row above the table, left to right:

• Refresh: pulls the latest data (the tool also refreshes itself regularly)
• Export CSV: downloads all current opportunities as a CSV for your own analysis
• Player Info: toggles MLB-specific context columns directly in the table: Bat# (batting order position, heatmapped 1-9), Bat (batter handedness, L/R/S), vs (opposing pitcher's hand, L/R), Pitcher (starting pitcher name), and Confirmed (lineup confirmation status). Useful when you want to sort or filter by matchup context without opening the player panel. The lock button next to the toggle keeps Player Info on across visits.
• Movement: shows or hides the line-movement columns. The 🔒 lock next to it keeps them on across visits. See Sparklines and Line Movement below.
• 💧 Liquidity and 💵 Exchange $: show how much you can actually bet at each exchange price and, if you want, price the board only from prices that can take your bet size. See Liquidity.
• FV Mode: controls the fair value source. See FV Mode Selector.
• My Weights: set your own per-book de-vig weights. See Custom De-Vig Weights.
• vs MKB: appears once your weights are applied; collapses or expands the MKB comparison columns.
• Boost: evaluates a profit boost, no-sweat bet or bonus bet. See Boost Calculator.
• Save / Load: save and restore named filter configurations. See Saved Filters.
• Exclude Books: remove books you don't have access to from the Best Book calculation. See Exclude Books.
• Must Include: only show rows where all your selected books have posted odds. See Must Include Books.
• Unit $: set your unit size in dollars to see dollar amounts alongside unit recommendations.
• +/− · % · Both: how odds are displayed. +/− shows American odds (+150), % shows implied probability (40.0%), and Both stacks them, percentage above the price. Handy because several exchanges quote in percentages. Cell color shading is based on the underlying price either way.

Sorting and Filtering#

Sort by clicking any column header; click again to reverse. Default recommendation: sort by Conf. Adj. Recc. U, high to low (in Market FV mode).

Filter using the filter row below each header: free-text player search, multi-select dropdowns (Book, Market, Game, Game Date, Side and more, each with a Select All button so you can select everything and un-check just the one or two you don't want), and min/max range filters on numeric columns. Filters stack across columns. Once you have a combination you use regularly, save it with the Save button (see Saved Filters).

Sparklines and Line Movement#

Hover over any odds value (or the Best Odds column) to see a sparkline of how that line has moved; the y-axis is implied probability, so higher on the chart means more likely. Click 📈 Movement in the toolbar to open the movement columns beside the odds, which show how far each line has moved over several windows and since open, in percentage points of chance (green = steaming, blue = drifting).

Both work the same as in every other sport. The Value Finders guide explains how to read a sparkline, and Line Movement (Steaming) covers what counts as a move, the yellow ⚠ marker and how to use steam. One baseball-specific tip: short-window moves close to first pitch often mean lineup news (a scratch or a batting-order change), so check the player's news before you act on it.

Player Tooltips and Player Details Panel#

Hover over any player name (desktop) or tap it (mobile) to see a quick tooltip with:

• Team, position, opponent
• MKB MatchIQ (MIQ) score, our proprietary pitch-level matchup rating
• Batting order position and opposing pitcher info
• Model-projected probability for hitting this line, shown as both a % and American odds, with a green/red edge indicator comparing our projection to the current book odds
• Season-to-date (STD) hit rate for this player at this specific line, with its own edge indicator

Click the player name to open the full Player Details Panel. See Player Panel (Batters) and Pitcher Panel below for complete details.

Line Tooltip and VF History#

Hover over any value in the Line column to see all available lines for that player/market side by side, with best book, odds, EV%, Rec U, and coverage for each, all heatmapped (more on the Line Tooltip).

Inside the Line Tooltip (desktop) or line modal (mobile), the VF History button expands a table of the recent days this exact prop appeared in the Value Finder. For each appearance you'll see:

• Date: when this prop was surfaced
• Book: the Best Book on that day (shown as a colored badge)
• Odds: the odds it was available at (green = better than fair, red = worse)
• Recc. U: the Kelly recommendation on that day
• Result: Hit (green), Miss (red), DNP (yellow, player didn't play), or Pending (gray, result not yet recorded)

When to use it: VF History is a quick sanity check before betting. If a prop has been surfacing consistently for several days and has been hitting, that's additional signal. If it's been a persistent miss, it might be worth waiting or skipping.

Desktop vs. Mobile#

Desktop: Full table with all columns. Scroll horizontally for individual book odds.

Mobile: Card layout, with each opportunity as a stacked card showing the key metrics. Tap the triangle to expand for all book odds. The mobile view fully reflects your FV mode: the card badge, expanded details and sort options all switch to the right Recc. U (Conf. Adj., Model, Recc. U vs. Book, or all three for Double Edge). See Desktop vs Mobile for more.

Main Lines Tab (Game Lines)#

The 🎯 Main Lines tab is the Main Lines Value Finder, for game lines: moneyline, run line and total for every MLB game, plus every alternate run line and total. It is the same tool as the Player Prop Value Finder (same columns, toolbar, filters, book columns, boosts, Kelly units, sparklines, line movement, betslip links and Parlay HQ), just with games instead of players, and its High Confidence, Value Long Shots and 🔥 Steaming +EV quick filters are tuned for game lines. 🧹 Clear resets every filter.

Reading a row. The Bet column reads like a betslip line: Yankees (moneyline), Yankees -1.5 (run line), Over 8.5 (total). Market says which kind of bet it is, and Line holds the number so you can sort and filter by it. Lines are full game, settled the way the books settle them.

Main lines vs alternates. Alternates are simply more rows. The Market filter lists Moneyline, Run Line, Total, Alt Run Line, Alt Total, all ticked by default. Want main lines only? Untick Alt Run Line and Alt Total. Want only alternates? Untick the other three.

Fair value on game lines. A line needs enough sharp-weighted books before we show a fair value or an edge. With fewer, you still see every book's price, with no fair value and no edge, rather than a guess. Far-out alternate lines are often priced by only one or two books, so expect more blanks there.

Settings are separate. Your book columns, custom weights and saved filters on Main Lines are kept separately from the prop Value Finder, so setting up one never changes the other.

The Main Lines section of the Value Finders guide covers the rest, including exchange fees on game lines.

FV Mode Selector#

The FV Mode button (in the toolbar row) controls what we use as "fair value" when calculating EV and Kelly recommendations.

Market FV (Default — Recommended)#

The default mode. Fair value is derived from MKB's proprietary sharp book consensus: each sportsbook is individually devigged, then weighted by sharpness. The sharper the book, the more influence it has on fair value. Pinnacle, as the sharpest book, anchors the calculation.

When Market FV is active, you'll see two Recc. U columns: Conf. Adj. Recc. U and Std. Recc. U (see FV Mode and Recc. U Columns).

Use this when: you want conservative, consensus-driven fair value that's been validated by the sharp market. Recommended for most users.

Model FV (Use with Caution)#

Switches fair value to our proprietary probability model. Instead of asking "what does the sharp market think the true probability is?" it asks "what does our Monte Carlo simulation say?"

When Model FV is active:

• Fair Odds recalculate based on model probability
• EV % reflects model-vs-book edge rather than market-vs-book edge
• A single Model Recc. U column (blue) replaces the two Market FV columns
• Only rows where the model sees edge are shown

This can surface opportunities that the market hasn't fully priced in yet, but it can also surface false positives when our model is wrong. Model FV is inherently less conservative than Market FV.

The Model Edge preset filters for bets where our model sees positive EV. It does not switch your FV mode: you can leave the board on Market FV and use it purely as a filter, which is usually what you want. The Double Edge preset does pin FV Mode to Market while it's active, because it needs both numbers in their original form to compare them.

Use this when: you want to bet on our proprietary probability estimates, or you're looking for edge the market might be missing.

Market Average#

Market Average is the simplest possible fair value: the average of every book's price on that exact line, exchanges included, with the books' margin left in (no de-vig). Only realistic prices go in: glitch prices our price checks flag, prices far off the rest of the market, and any book you exclude are all left out. A line also needs enough independent sportsbooks (sister books count once); with too few, Market Average shows "—" rather than a number.

Because the margin stays in, Market Average's fair odds come out shorter than a de-vigged fair value, so it shows more "edges" than Market FV, especially on one-sided props (home runs, stolen bases) where books carry a lot of margin.

Market Average is a reference view, not a recommendation. The edge column reads vs Avg % (how far the best price sits above the average) rather than EV %, and Recc. U shows "—" because there are no stakes. Nothing in Market Average is tracked, graded or posted, and the Parlay Optimizer keeps using Market FV while it is selected. For EV and staking, switch back to Market FV.

Use this when: you want a plain "is this better than everyone else?" benchmark without any weighting choices, or as a second opinion next to Market FV.

Single Book (Devigged)#

Select any individual sportsbook (FD, DK, MG, etc.) to use that book's devigged odds as your fair value benchmark. The vig is removed from that book's odds first, then EV and Kelly recalculate using the resulting true probability.

When a single book is selected:

• A single Recc. U vs. [BOOK] column (blue) appears in place of the standard columns
• Rows where that specific book has no odds posted are excluded entirely (not shown with placeholder data)

Use this when: you have access to a specific book and want to see which other books offer better prices relative to it, which is useful for line shopping or evaluating whether a particular book's lines are beatable.

Custom De-Vig Weights (My Weights)#

Market FV isn't a single book's opinion; it's a weighted average. Every book's price is devigged, then combined, with sharper books counting for more. Pinnacle carries the most weight; a wide, slow book carries very little.

My Weights lets you set those weights yourself.

The 🎚️ My Weights button sits in the toolbar next to FV Mode. Open it and you get one row per book: a slider, a number box, the share of your total that book represents, and, in small grey text underneath, the weight we give it (labeled MKB). Only the ratios matter, not the scale, so PN 40 / DK 20 and PN 4 / DK 2 are the same weight set.

Under the list, Clear all zeroes every book so you can build a set from scratch, and Reset to MKB baseline puts our published starting weights back. (Each appears only when it would actually do something; Reset is hidden when you're already on the baseline.)

Hit Apply My Weights and the board switches to your fair value.

What changes when you apply#

Fair value recomputes from your weights, and because everything downstream is calculated from fair value, it all moves together: EV %, My Conf. U and My Std. U. Your recommended stake changes, not just the fair odds.

The value columns then bank into three color-coded groups:

The vs MKB button (next to My Weights) collapses the blue and amber groups when you're done comparing and just want your own board. Your columns keep their pink edge either way, so it never stops being obvious whose numbers you're reading.

The two Δ columns are in points, not percentages. Δ FV is the difference in implied probability; Δ EV is the difference in EV. Green means your weights make the bet look better than ours do, red means worse. We use points because a percentage change in American odds means completely different things at −200 and +2000: it flatters favorites and slanders longshots.

My Conf. U: the confidence adjustment follows your weights#

This is the part people ask about, and it works the way you'd hope.

Conf. U is the Kelly stake scaled by weight coverage: the share of the total weight you assigned that actually posted a price on this bet. If you gave Pinnacle a big share and Pinnacle has a price here, coverage is high and the stake is close to the standard one. If the only books quoting this line are ones you weighted near zero, coverage is low and the stake shrinks.

So it really is more confident where your books are, and less where they aren't: same logic as our own confidence adjustment, just measured against your weight set instead of ours.

How My Weights works with other tools#

Exclude Books does a different job, and the two are meant to be used together. Excluding a book removes it from Best Odds, where you can actually place the bet. Weighting a book to zero removes it from fair value, what the bet is worth. You might exclude BetOnline because you don't have an account there, while still letting it inform fair value. Or the reverse.

Must Include Books is unchanged: it still hides rows where your required books haven't posted a price.

Preset filters run on the recomputed numbers. High Confidence filters on Conf. U, so with your weights applied it surfaces the bets your weighting rates highly; the preset thresholds stay the same, the numbers they're testing are yours.

Double Edge is the exception: it compares our model against our market fair value, so it pins FV Mode to Market and locks My Weights while it's active. Turn the preset off to get your weights back. Model Edge is unaffected: it filters on model EV, which your weights don't touch.

The Boost Calculator works on top. The boosted price becomes the best price, and EV and stake recompute against your fair value. The MKB columns re-price at the boosted number too, so the comparison stays apples-to-apples.

Sorting and range filters operate on your numbers. Filter EV % ≥ 3 with weights on and you get rows where your fair value says 3%, not ours.

Export CSV carries both: your columns are labeled My FV / My EV% / My Conf. U / My Std. U, and the MKB columns ride along whenever the comparison is showing.

Sparklines, VF History and the Line Tooltip are unaffected. Those show raw book prices and how they've moved, which is the same regardless of how you weight them.

Parlay HQ prices legs at our market fair value, not yours. Legs you add while your weights are on keep working normally, but the parlay's combined fair value uses MKB's number. Worth knowing so the two don't look like they disagree.

Mobile works the same. The button is in the mobile toolbar, and the expanded card carries the same three groups stacked instead of side by side.

Saving a weight set — and per-market weights#

Weights save with the rest of your setup through the normal Save button. The saved set includes your weights, whether the MKB comparison was showing, plus everything a saved filter normally holds: preset, column filters, sort order, excluded books.

This is how you get different weights for different markets. Weights apply to the whole board while they're active, but a saved filter can pair a weight set with a market filter. So:

1. Filter the Market column to batter_home_runs
2. Set the weights you want for home runs
3. Save it as "HR — sharp weights"

Loading that filter later restores both at once: home-run rows, priced your way. Save a different pair for pitcher strikeouts with different weights and switch between them from the Load menu. Because saved filters live on your account rather than the device, a set you build on your laptop opens the same way on your phone.

Things worth watching#

"Prices N of M rows." The panel shows, live as you drag sliders, how many rows on today's board your weights can actually price. A row needs at least one book you gave weight to. Weight only two books and most of the board goes blank. That's the maths being honest, not a bug, but the counter is there so you see it before you apply rather than after.

The baseline won't reproduce our board exactly. The sliders open on our published starting weights, but our live board also tunes weights per market and per line range. Even sitting on the baseline, your number can differ slightly from ours. The MKB columns show you by exactly how much, which is a reasonable way to see where our per-market tuning is doing work.

Weight sets to try#

• Sharp-only. Clear all, then weight only the sharpest books (for example Pinnacle 40, BetOnline 10, Bovada 10). You'll see the board tighten up considerably and a lot of rows drop out: a fast way to find bets the sharpest books agree are live.
• Books you actually have. Weight the books you can bet, zero the rest. Fair value now reflects the market you can reach.
• Longshot markets deserve their own set. HR and stolen-base props are priced by a different mix of books than hits or total bases; the offshore books are often the only ones posting a number on a deep longshot. Save a weight set that leans on the books that actually quote those markets, filtered to batter_home_runs, and a second one for the high-liquidity markets.

Boost Calculator#

The Boost button opens a calculator with three modes: Boost, No-Sweat, and Bonus Bet. Each mode recalculates EV and Recc. U to reflect the specific promotion you're evaluating.

Mode 1: Boost#

Use this when a sportsbook is running a profit boost on a specific bet type.

1. Select your Boost Book, the book running the promotion
2. Select your Boost % from the quick presets, or enter any custom percentage
3. The Best Odds column updates to show the boosted odds from that book, and EV % and Recc. U recalculate automatically

Example: DraftKings is running a 25% profit boost on MLB player props. You activate DK + 25% in the Boost Calculator. Now any bet you'd normally place at DK odds gets shown with the post-boost payout, so you can see exactly how much edge the boost adds.

When boost is active, the button highlights in yellow and shows your current settings (e.g., "DK +25%"). Click "Clear" to reset.

Mode 2: No-Sweat#

Use this when a sportsbook offers a no-sweat (insured) bet. DraftKings and FanDuel call these No Sweat Bets. If your bet loses, the book refunds your stake as a bonus bet, not cash, so the EV assumes you convert that bonus bet at your conversion rate.

1. Select the book offering the promotion
2. Set the Insured Amount: how much of your wager the book returns as bonus bets if you lose
3. Set the Est. Bonus Bet Conversion Rate: your estimate of how much real money you'll extract per dollar of bonus bets (75% is a common benchmark). You can enter a custom rate if you convert at a different rate.
4. EV % and Recc. U recalculate to reflect the reduced downside. Odds stay the same, but since losing costs less, every bet becomes more valuable

How it works mathematically: Instead of losing your full stake on a miss, you recover a portion as bonus bets. If a book offers 100% back at 75% conversion, your effective loss on a miss is only 25% of your stake, dramatically improving EV.

When No-Sweat is active, the button highlights in green. The EV and Recc. U columns get green headers and borders so you can clearly see the adjusted values.

Mode 3: Bonus Bet#

Use this when you have a bonus bet (free bet) to place and want to find the best play to maximize your return.

1. Select the book where you have the bonus bet
2. That's it, no other settings needed

How bonus bets work: Unlike regular bets, bonus bets only pay the profit; the stake is not returned. This changes the math entirely. The EV % column becomes Conv % (Conversion %), your expected return per dollar of bonus bet.

Where to look: Focus on plays in the +200 to +400 odds range with the highest Conv %. This is the sweet spot for bonus bet conversion. Longer odds show higher Conv % on paper, but you'll rarely hit them, and the variance makes it impractical. A solid-conversion single at +300 is almost always better in practice than a longshot parlay that converts higher on paper.

When bonus bet is active, the button highlights in purple. The EV and Recc. U columns change to Conv % and Exp. Return with purple headers and borders.

Note for all modes: If you have the selected book in your Exclude Books list, the promotion will not apply, and the tool will warn you inside the panel. Remove the book from exclusions first, or clear the promotion.

Saved Filters#

The Save and Load buttons let you save your current filter configuration to your account and reload it instantly, on any device, any browser, any time. A filter set you save on your laptop will work on your phone too.

Saving a Filter Set#

Once you have filters configured the way you like (a preset, FV mode, column filters, boost settings, sort order, or any combination), click Save. A small panel opens where you give the set a name (e.g., "Hits Over", "Model Edge HR", "DK Boost 25%"). Hit Save Filters and it's stored to your account.

What gets saved:

• Active preset (e.g., High Confidence, Double Edge)
• FV Mode (Market, Model, or a specific book)
• All column filters (market type, side, EV range, etc.)
• Sort column and direction
• Boost book and percentage (if active)
• Excluded books (if any, for cross-device persistence of your book exclusions)
• Must Include books (if any)

Loading a Saved Filter Set#

Click Load to see all your saved filter sets. Each entry shows a short summary of what's in it (preset, FV mode, number of column filters, boost). Click any entry to apply it instantly; all settings restore exactly as you saved them.

To permanently delete a saved set, click the trash icon next to it. A confirmation bar will appear: click Delete to confirm or Cancel to go back.

Good Uses for Saved Filters#

• Your daily starting point: save your preferred preset and sort so you don't have to reset it every session
• Book-specific views: e.g., "PN Devigged" saves FV mode set to Pinnacle so you can quickly check your edge against PN lines
• Specific market research: save a filter set for a market you return to often (e.g., Hits Over, HR Scorer, Pitcher K Over)
• Boost sessions: save a filter set with your active boost book and percentage so you can quickly re-apply it when a promotion is live

Customize Books#

The 📚 Customize Books button (in the toolbar row) gives you full control over which sportsbook columns appear in the Value Finder table, and in what order.

Hide my excluded books. At the top of the panel, one click hides every book you've excluded in Exclude Books. The line above it says the difference in short: Customize = which columns you see; Exclude = which books can be best book and drive EV/stakes. Works the same on mobile.

Why Customize?#

With so many sportsbooks tracked, the table can get wide. If you only care about a handful of books, you can hide the rest to reduce scrolling. And if you always check FanDuel first, you can drag it to the first position so it's the leftmost book column.

How Customize Books Works#

1. Click 📚 Customize Books to open the panel
2. Show/Hide books: Toggle visibility for individual books by clicking their badge. Books are grouped by category (Sharp, Major US, Regional US, Hard Rock, Offshore, Exchanges, and Display Only) so you can quickly find what you need
3. Reorder books: Drag any visible book up or down in the reorder list. Position 1 is the leftmost column in the table
4. Use All, None, or Reset to quickly adjust visibility. Reset restores both the default visibility and default column order

The button shows an active state with a count badge (books shown out of the total) when your configuration differs from the default.

What Customize Books Affects#

• Desktop table: Book odds columns are filtered and reordered to match your preferences
• Mobile cards: The "All Sportsbooks" section in each card shows only your visible books, in your chosen order
• No effect on calculations: Fair value, EV %, Best Book, and Kelly are all unaffected. This is purely a display preference

Your book visibility and order preferences automatically persist in your browser, per sport. So your MLB preferences won't affect your NBA or NHL setup, and they're remembered across sessions on the same device.

Exclude Books#

The Exclude Books button (in the toolbar row) lets you remove specific sportsbooks from the Best Book calculation.

Exclude books I've hidden. At the top of the dropdown, one click also excludes every book you've hidden in Customize Books, so a book you've hidden can't quietly become your best book or drive EV and stakes. Hiding a column on its own only changes what you see. Works the same on mobile.

Why Would You Exclude a Book?#

The most common reason: you don't have an account at a specific book, or a book has drastically limited your account. If DraftKings has limited you but the Value Finder keeps surfacing DK as the Best Book, your Best Book column becomes meaningless for you, because you can't actually place those bets. Excluding DK forces the tool to find the next-best available book you actually have access to.

How Exclude Books Works#

1. Click Exclude Books to open the checklist dropdown
2. Check any books you want to exclude (you can exclude multiple)
3. The Best Book, Best Odds, EV %, and Recc. U columns all recalculate instantly using the next-best available book from the remaining unexcluded books
4. The button turns active and shows a red count badge while any books are excluded

Important: This only affects which book appears as Best Book and the EV/Kelly calculations. The individual book odds columns still show all books, including excluded ones. Fair value (the market consensus) is not changed; only the "best available to you" comparison changes.

Keeping Your Exclusions#

Excluded books automatically persist in your browser, so they're still excluded when you close and reopen the tab. For cross-device persistence, include excluded books in a Saved Filter: loading that saved set restores your exclusions on any device.

To reset, open the dropdown and click Clear all, or uncheck books individually.

Must Include Books#

The Must Include button (in the toolbar row, next to Exclude Books) is the complement to Exclude Books. Instead of removing books from consideration, it filters the table to only show rows where all of your selected books have posted odds on that specific prop.

Why Would You Use Must Include?#

The most common reason: you want to bet at a specific book and only see opportunities that book is actively pricing. If you only want to bet at FanDuel today, filtering with Must Include FD means you'll only see rows where FD has odds posted. No surprises when you go to place the bet and the book isn't offering it.

Another use case: you trust certain books as sharp signals for specific markets. If you only want to bet strikeout props where Pinnacle and DraftKings have both weighed in, Must Include PN + DK enforces that.

How Must Include Works#

1. Click Must Include to open the checklist dropdown
2. Check any books you require to have odds (you can select multiple)
3. The table instantly filters to only show rows where every selected book has posted odds for that prop
4. The button turns active and shows a green count badge while any books are selected

Important: Must Include is purely a visibility filter. It doesn't change EV calculations, fair value, or which book appears as Best Book.

Difference from Exclude Books#

Unit Size Input#

The Unit $ input in the toolbar lets you set your unit size in dollars. Once set, the Kelly recommendation columns (which normally show in units) will also display the dollar amounts. Enter your unit size (e.g., $100), and the tool does the math for you.

Parlay HQ#

Parlay HQ is a floating widget available on every tab in the suite, your one-stop shop for building and optimizing parlays. It has a Build tab (manually pick your legs), an Optimize tab (let the math find the best combinations for you) and a Portfolio tab (build a diversified set of parlays).

Adding Legs#

There are two ways to add legs to your parlay:

1. From the Value Finder table: click the + button on any row (or tap "Add to Parlay" on mobile).
2. From the Player Panel: open any player's details panel (by clicking their name from any tab), scroll to the All Props section at the bottom, and click the + button next to any prop. This lets you research a player in MIQ HQ or Game View, review their matchup data and batted ball profile, then add props to your parlay without leaving the panel.

When a prop is already in your parlay, the button turns green with a ✓; click it again to remove. Parlay HQ appears at the bottom of the screen showing your selected legs, combined parlay odds, and total implied probability.

You can add between 2 and 6 legs. SGP conflict detection is built in: if two legs are from the same game and would conflict (e.g., the same player Over and Under on the same market), the tool flags it.

The Parlay Optimizer#

Instead of manually picking legs, the Optimize tab automatically finds the best parlay combinations from the current Value Finder data.

How it works:

1. Select your Parlay Book, the book you'll place the parlay at (e.g., FD, DK)
2. Choose your number of legs
3. Optionally apply a Boost % or switch to No-Sweat mode if your book is offering a parlay promotion
4. Click Find Best Parlays

The optimizer evaluates valid combinations of legs from your filtered data, calculates the combined parlay odds at your selected book, applies any boost or no-sweat adjustment, and ranks results by recommended units. It shows you the top +EV parlays with:

• Combined parlay odds (pre-boost and post-boost if applicable)
• Total EV %
• Recommended units (Kelly-sized at the adjusted price when a boost or no-sweat promo is active)
• Individual leg details: player, market, side, line, and the game

Click any result card to expand it and see full details for each leg, plus a grid of what the parlay odds would be at every other book, with green highlights on books offering better prices than your selected book.

Optimizer Targets: Bet Size and Odds Range#

Got a boost with a max bet, or a book that limits you? The optional Targets row tells the optimizer what you can actually bet, so it stops handing you parlays sized for a stake you can't place.

• Unit size: the stake you can place, in units. A $10-max boost is 0.1u if your unit is $100 (if you've set your unit size, the hint under the box does the conversion for you).
• Floor %: a parlay only qualifies if its recommended stake is at least this share of your unit size. The default asks for most of your unit size (the field shows the current default). Anything worth more than your unit size still qualifies; you just bet your unit size. Each result shows both numbers, like recommended 0.13u → you bet 0.10u.
• Min odds / Max odds: keep the parlay price inside a range, e.g. +200 to +800. This is the price shown on the card, so it's the boosted price when a boost is on.

With a unit size set, results are ranked by expected profit at the stake you actually place, not by recommended units. Why the floor matters: betting a little less than the recommendation is fine, but putting your whole boost on a parlay the math says is only worth half of it means betting more on a long shot than its edge supports.

Example: your book offers a 50% boost on a 2-leg home run parlay, max bet $10, and your unit is $100. Enter 0.1 as your unit size, leave the floor at its default, select the boost, and run it. You get the parlays that put that $10 to work best, and none that are only worth $6 of it.

Leave all three boxes blank and the optimizer ignores targets. If nothing fits your targets, it tells you why (no parlay is worth enough for your floor, or none lands in your odds range), so you know to lower the floor or unit size, widen the odds, or change the number of legs.

Optimizer Filters and Candidates#

The optimizer works with whatever filters you already have active: column filters, preset filters, FV mode, excluded books, must-include books, and mobile filters all carry through. If you've filtered to "Hits Overs on FanDuel games only," the optimizer only considers those rows.

It scales how many candidates it evaluates to the number of legs you select, so larger parlays stay fast. When your dataset is small, or you have a boost or no-sweat promo active, the optimizer relaxes its pre-filter and considers all rows with valid odds, not just those that are already +EV on their own. That matters because a boost or no-sweat adjustment can turn a marginally -EV combination into a strong +EV parlay.

Best Price on Book Toggle#

Check the "Best price on book" toggle to filter results to only show parlays where your selected book has the best (or tied-best) odds compared to all other books. This prevents the optimizer from surfacing parlays that look good on your book but are actually better priced somewhere else.

Lock Legs#

There are two ways to lock legs:

1. Search and lock: use the Lock a Leg search box at the top of the optimizer. Type a player name or market to search through your current filtered data, then click + Lock to pin that leg.
2. Lock from results: after running the optimizer, click the 🔒 icon next to any leg in the results to lock it for your next run.

Locked legs are shown in green chips below the search box. When you run the optimizer with locked legs, those legs are always included in every parlay, and the optimizer fills the remaining slots with the best available options. For example, lock 1 leg in a 3-leg parlay, and the optimizer finds the best 2 legs to go with it.

To unlock a leg, click the X on its green chip. You can also Clear All locked legs to start fresh.

Exclude Legs#

Don't like a specific player or market in your results? Click the X next to any leg in an expanded result card to exclude that player/market combination from future optimizer runs. Excluded legs appear in a list above the results with + restore buttons, and you can Clear All to start fresh.

Optimizer Player Details and Book Comparison#

Player names in optimizer results work just like they do in the Value Finder table: hover (desktop) for the quick tooltip and click for the full Player Details panel. On mobile, the first tap shows the quick tooltip; tap "View Full Details" to open the full panel. This applies to both the Build and Optimize tabs.

At the bottom of each expanded result card, a grid shows the parlay odds at every other book, so you can gut-check whether your selected book truly has the best price. Books offering better odds are highlighted in green.

When to Use the Optimizer#

• You have a parlay boost: the optimizer is designed for this. Enter your boost %, and it finds the combinations that maximize your edge with the promotion
• You have a no-sweat parlay promo: switch to No-Sweat mode, set your insured amount and conversion rate, and find parlays with the best adjusted EV
• You want the math to pick the best SGP: instead of guessing which legs combine well, let the optimizer find the highest +EV combinations
• You're doing a focused session: filter the Value Finder to a specific game, market type, or book, then optimize within that subset

Portfolio Builder#

The Portfolio tab in Parlay HQ does something the optimizer doesn't: instead of one best parlay, it builds a diversified set of parlays (a portfolio) spread across your books and value sources, and tells you which book each one is best on and why. It's built for home runs first, and shines when you have a handful of hitters you like and promos to spend.

Step 1: Pick your candidate source#

• My pool: hand-build a list. Paste player names (one per line or comma-separated) and hit Add, or use the ＋ menu on any HR Feed card and choose Add to Pool.
• HR Feed filters: use whatever is currently showing in your HR Feed. Filter the feed to exactly the hitters you want (MIQ, park, Pull Air%, etc.), switch the Portfolio source to "HR Feed filters," and those picks become your candidate pool live.

Step 2: Set your books and promos#

Select one or more books (multi-select). For each, attach the promo you actually have:

• Boost: enter the % and how many boosts you have. The builder applies your boost to the best set(s) on that book and marks it ⚡ Use your boost here; the rest stay plain, so a single-use boost is never double-counted.
• Bonus bet: enter your per-bet stake and how many free bets. Bonus-bet math keeps only the winnings, so these sets automatically lean longer.
• No-Sweat: insured stake, refunded as a bonus bet (not cash) if it loses.

Step 3: Choose how sets are judged#

• Fair value: pick Model, Market, Either, or Any. Model/Market only surface sets that are +EV vs that source. Either (default) is best-of: a set qualifies if it's +EV vs either source, so one parlay can mix model-favored and market-favored legs (tick Require both to demand +EV vs both). Any prefers +EV plays but, if you're short of your requested count, backfills with the likeliest-to-hit sets (at the best price) so you're never left empty-handed.
• Odds band: multi-select Chalky / Mid / Long (or Any). Combine them, e.g. Chalky + Mid.
• +EV only: require every set to beat model or market.
• # Sets and Legs (min–max): how many parlays, and the leg-count range to consider.

Portfolio Quick Presets#

One click sets Fair value + Odds band + edge + leg range: ⚖️ Balanced, 🛡️ Chalky, 🚀 Longshot, 💰 Edge only, 🧠 Model, 📈 Market. Presets just fill the options below, so tweak anything to customize, and hit Reset all to start over. (Presets don't change your candidate source.)

Reading Portfolio Results#

Each set is a card showing:

• The book it's best on, the parlay odds (boosted if a boost applies), and an edge label.
• Best-of FV / Best-of EV: the fair value and EV the recommendation is built on. "Best-of" takes the more favorable of model/market on each leg (so it's always ≥ both, not an average), shown alongside Model EV and Market EV so you can see how each source grades the set, plus the Rec U stake.
• A "why we like it" line and colored per-leg flags: ⭐ Top Pick, 🎯 MIQ, 🧠 Model edge, 📈 Market edge, 💨 Pull Air%, ✅ Best on book.
• An all-books grid (this set's odds everywhere) and one-tap betslip links.

Above the results, a player-usage readout shows how often each hitter appears across your sets (e.g. Machado ×3, Harper ×2) so you can see your exposure at a glance, and 🔀 Remix reshuffles into different combinations with the same settings when the first batch isn't quite right.

Portfolio Saved Setups#

Hit 💾 Save to store a full configuration (books, promos, fair value, preset, odds band and legs) and 📂 Load it back any time. Same Save/Load flow as the Value Finder's saved filters.

Betslip Deep Linking#

Look for the ↗ arrow: it marks everything that jumps straight into your book's betslip with the selection, or the whole parlay, already loaded. In the MLB suite you'll find it:

• In the Value Finder table: every book odds cell with a ↗, and the Best Odds cell, which links to whichever book has the best number.
• In the Player Panel: the best book badge next to each prop under All Props.
• In Parlay HQ: the Bet ↗ button for each book in the Parlay Odds by Book grid opens that book with all of your legs pre-loaded. We don't price same-game parlays there, but you still get a betslip link for each book, so you can tap through and let the sportsbook show you its live SGP odds.
• In the Parlay Optimizer: the Add parlay to [book] betslip ↗ link in each expanded result, and the tappable Other Books chips.
• On the HR Feed, SB Feed, Moonshots & Lasers and SGP Browser, wherever you see the ↗.

It works on desktop and mobile. Always confirm the price and your stake inside the sportsbook before you place the bet. See Betslip Deep Linking in the Value Finders guide for more.

Game View#

The Game View tab provides game matchup context: player projections organized by game, with starting pitcher matchups, weather data, park factors, and team-level scoring projections. It's the best place to understand the full context of a slate before diving into individual opportunities.

Game View Day Selector#

At the top, switch between Today and Tomorrow to see projections for each date.

MamaBot Slate Overview#

An expandable AI-generated summary covers key insights for the day's slate:

• Scoring environment analysis (high-scoring vs. pitcher-dominant matchups)
• Notable pitching matchup mismatches
• Model edge highlights where our projections diverge from market totals
• Weather and park factor callouts

Click the header bar to expand or collapse. It's a great starting point before digging into individual games.

Game Summary Bar#

A horizontally scrollable chip bar shows all games for the day. Each chip displays:

• Team matchup (e.g., NYY@BOS)
• Game time
• Model-projected team run totals (heatmapped: green for high projected scoring, red for low)
• Model total vs. market over/under
• Edge indicator (colored if the model diverges significantly from the market)

Click any chip to jump directly to that game's card. Chips with a green border and background mark games where our model's projected total differs most from the market's over/under. These are the games where the model sees the biggest disagreement with the market, a great place to start your research.

Game Cards#

Each game renders as a card with:

Header:

• Team matchups with logos
• Game time
• Projected team run totals (heatmapped)
• Model total vs. market O/U with edge badge (OVER/UNDER/NEUTRAL)

Starting Pitcher Matchup:

• Starting pitcher for each team with handedness (L/R)
• Pitcher tier (Ace, Elite, Above Avg, Average, Below Avg) as color-coded badges. Tiers come from our composite pitching model, which factors in strikeout rate, walk rate, ERA/FIP, WHIP, and recent performance. These tiers directly impact how we project the game environment: a matchup against an Ace means lower projected run totals for the opposing lineup.
• Pitcher rank among all starters

Weather Section:

• Weather condition emoji and risk level (clear, partly cloudy, rain risk, storm risk)
• Temperature
• Wind speed, direction, and a directional arrow relative to the diamond, showing whether wind is blowing out (favors hitters), blowing in (favors pitchers), or cross-wind (favors pull hitters to one side)
• Weather risk percentage (heatmapped: green for clear, yellow for mild risk, red for high risk)

Park Factor:

• Park factor score, displayed in the top-right of each game card. This composite score reflects how much the venue inflates or suppresses run scoring relative to league average, combining HR park factor, XBH (extra-base hit) park factor, and overall run scoring factor.
• Labels: "Great for Runs", "Good for Runs", "Neutral", "Suppresses Runs", "Poor for Runs"
• This is critical for MLB: Coors Field famously inflates scoring while Petco Park suppresses it

Monte Carlo Team Benchmarks:

• Model probabilities for team run thresholds (e.g., O2.5, O3.5, O4.5 runs)

Player Roster Tables: Each team's batters listed by batting order position:

• Batting order position (heatmapped 1-9)
• Position (colored badge)
• Batter handedness (L/R/S)
• MIQ score (MatchIQ matchup rating)
• Projected Hits, HR, RBIs, Total Bases, Stolen Bases, Runs (all heatmapped across the slate)
• Monte Carlo probability for key thresholds (1+ Hit %, 1+ HR %)

Click any player name to open the full Player Details Panel.

Using Game View Effectively#

• Check starting pitchers first: the SP matchup is the single biggest factor in MLB game environments. An Ace vs. a Below Avg pitcher creates a lopsided scoring expectation
• Weather matters for baseball: wind blowing out at Wrigley or Coors creates a completely different environment than wind blowing in. The wind arrow shows this at a glance
• Park factors are critical: a player projected for 0.8 hits at Coors is in a very different situation than 0.8 hits at Petco. Always check the park factor badge
• Use the chip bar to jump to games you care about without scrolling through the entire slate
• Cross-reference batting order: a player batting 2nd with an Ace on the mound against them is a very different bet than the same player batting 2nd against a Below Avg pitcher

Projections#

The Projections tab shows a table of all player projections: the same data that powers the Value Finder tooltips and player panels, but in a sortable, filterable table. It has two sub-tabs: Batters and Pitchers.

Projections Day Selector#

At the top, switch between Today and Tomorrow to load projections for each date.

Batters Sub-Tab#

Player Info Columns:

• Player name, team, opponent, game matchup
• Position (colored badge: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, LF, CF, RF, DH)
• Batting order position (#)
• Batter handedness (Bat: L/R/S)
• Opposing starting pitcher (vs SP)
• Opposing pitcher handedness (vs)
• Pitcher tier (SP Tier: Ace, Elite, Above Avg, Average, Below Avg)
• MIQ score (MatchIQ matchup rating)

Core Projections (all heatmapped):

• Proj H (Hits), Proj HR, Proj RBI, Proj R (Runs), Proj TB (Total Bases), Proj SB (Stolen Bases)

Monte Carlo Probabilities:

• Hits: 1+ H %, 2+ H %, 3+ H %
• Home Runs: 1+ HR %, 2+ HR %
• RBIs: 1+ RBI %, 2+ RBI %, 3+ RBI %
• Runs: 1+ R %, 2+ R %, 3+ R %
• Total Bases: 1+ TB % through 5+ TB %
• Stolen Bases: 1+ SB %, 2+ SB %
• Singles, Doubles, Triples: 1+ 1B %, 1+ 2B %, 1+ 3B %

Pitchers Sub-Tab#

Player Info Columns:

• Player name, team, opponent, game matchup
• Pitcher handedness (Hand: L/R)
• Pitcher tier (Ace, Elite, Above Avg, Average, Below Avg)
• Pitcher rank among all starters

Core Projections (all heatmapped):

• Proj K (Strikeouts), Proj IP (Innings Pitched), Proj ER (Earned Runs), Proj HA (Hits Allowed), Proj BB (Walks)
• ER, HA, and BB are inverted heatmaps: lower is better (greener)

Monte Carlo K Probabilities:

• 3+ K % through 10+ K %

Projections: Sorting and Filtering#

Sort by any column header. It's most useful to sort by the Monte Carlo columns to find players with the highest probability of hitting a specific threshold.

Filter by:

• Team, Opponent, Game, to narrow to specific matchups
• Position (batters) or Hand (pitchers)
• Batter/Pitcher handedness
• Pitcher tier

Search by player name using the search box.

Using Monte Carlo Probabilities#

The Monte Carlo columns are powerful for prop betting. Compare them to book implied probabilities to find edge:

Example: You're considering Aaron Judge Over 0.5 Home Runs (Anytime HR)

1. Find Judge in the Batters table
2. Check "1+ HR %". If it shows 32%, that's roughly what the model estimates as the probability
3. Compare to the book's implied probability from the odds
4. If the book implies 25% but our model says 32%, that's potential model edge

Pro tip: Jump straight to the Value Finder → Model Edge preset to see these model-vs-book comparisons already calculated with EV and Kelly. The Projections tab is better for research and manual comparison.

Special Markets#

The Special Markets tab breaks down MLB prop markets by category, with game-by-game views showing every relevant player, their probabilities, best available odds, and model value indicators. Each sub-tab has Today/Tomorrow switching and CSV export, and refreshes itself.

The sub-tabs are HR Feed (the default), Home Runs, SB Feed, Stolen Bases, Strikeouts, and Doubles & Triples. Each one is URL-addressable: the address bar updates as you switch (e.g. ?tab=special-markets&sub=sb-feed for the SB Feed, &sub=strikeouts for Strikeouts), so you can bookmark or share a link that drops you straight onto a specific feed.

In the table sub-tabs, players are sorted by probability (highest first) within each game, with team logos next to each name and row shading to distinguish home vs away players. A probability bar under each player's name shows their chance relative to the game's best candidate.

HR Feed#

A mobile-first card view of the home run market: the same underlying data as the Home Runs table, reorganized as a scrollable feed with color-coded stat tiles, tier badges, live line movement, and one-tap Parlay HQ adds. The default sub-tab in Special Markets.

HR Feed Cards#

Above the fold, every card stacks the key info:

• Player headshot with team logo overlay
• Name, team · position · batter hand
• Opposing pitcher with hand badge and tier (Ace / Elite / Above Avg / Average / Below Avg)
• Matchup, game time, and batting order, e.g. NYY @ KC · 7:41 PM · Bat #3. Confirmed lineups show a ✅ and a bold green batting order.
• Best available odds with book badge; hover for a sparkline of today's line movement
• Inline EV pills: 🤖 model EV (blue) and/or 📊 market EV (green) with the recommended Kelly unit stake, shown whenever either side is +EV
• ＋ menu (silver): tap to add the leg to your Betslip or your Portfolio pool (which feeds the Portfolio Builder); shows ✓ once the leg is added

HR Feed Stat Tiles: Model, Market, MIQ, Park#

The colored stat row tells the whole story at a glance. Text stays neutral; background color carries the signal.

• Model: model fair value odds + model HR probability (e.g. 24.0%). Background is colored by relative decile within today's pool: brightest green = top 10% by model prob, fading to red for the bottom 10%.
• Market: market fair value odds + market implied probability. Same relative-decile coloring (so you can see "this player's price says they're a top threat" vs "market doesn't agree").
• MIQ: MatchIQ score (0–100) plus the ★/●/■/✕ tier symbol shown across other tabs. Absolute coloring: green for strong matchups, gray middle, red for weak.
• Park: HR park factor as % deviation (e.g. 🚀 +12% at a hitter's park, ❄️ -8% at a pitcher's park). Absolute coloring matching MIQ HQ.

HR Feed Header Chips#

Each card's header surfaces the high-signal info as small chips:

• 🔥 TOP PICK: a composite-quality bet combining the best signals we analyze for HRs (matchup, park, model, lineup quality, price). Orange glow border around the card.
• ⚡ DOUBLE EDGE: both the model and the market agree the price is off (gold border with a green-to-blue gradient badge). Highest-conviction edge tier.
• 🤖 MODEL EDGE: model finds positive EV (blue border)
• 📊 MARKET EDGE: market consensus disagrees with the price (green border)
• 🏆 90+ MIQ: elite matchup score, surfaced on any card even when no edge tier is firing (purple)
• 🔥 STEAMING / 📈: market implied probability is rising vs today's open (more confident in the HR)
• ❄️ COOLING / 📉: market implied probability is falling (less confident)
• 🎯 ZF: the Zone Fit sub-score, surfaced because it's a TOP PICK gate that isn't otherwise visible
• 💨 PA: Pull Air% (see Pull Air%), color-coded by tier, a quick read on the hitter's home-run-power profile
• ☀️ / 🌤️ / 🌧️ / ⛈️: weather risk flag color-coded by score · 🏟️ DOME for indoor games

Hover any chip for more detail (or long-press on mobile). The steam chip's tooltip shows the exact from→to implied probability and timestamps.

HR Feed Line Movement#

• Hover the best-odds value for a mini sparkline of today's price action with the trend direction
• Tap a card to expand for a full 24h sparkline with every book's line plus a fair value overlay
• Line history is scoped to the unique game, so the same matchup playing two days in a row gets its own history each day

Recent Form Strip and Bat-Heat#

Inside the expanded view, every player gets a Last 15 Games strip: green squares for HR games (with counts for multi-HR nights), dashed boxes for any missed games. Underneath, a personal-relative bat-heat composite rates the player's most recent batted balls against his own longer baseline across barrel%, hard-hit%, and exit velocity:

• 🔥 HOT BAT: clearly trending up vs his own norm
• ⚖️ STEADY: holding his usual level
• ❄️ COLD: clearly trending down

Hover the badge for the exact deltas (e.g. Barrel%: +2.1pp (10.5% vs 8.4%)).

Frozen Cards (Live Game Tracking)#

When a game starts and books pull the line, the card stays in the feed but goes italic and faded. All values freeze at the last snapshot the books offered (odds, EV, steam, sparkline, tier), so you can scroll the feed mid-game and see exactly what every play looked like at first pitch. The +Parlay button disables on frozen cards. Filter with 🔒 Hide frozen if you only want bettable plays.

HR Feed: Sort and Filter#

Sort options: Tier (default), Model Probability, MIQ score, Market EV, Model EV, 🔥 Steam (high → low). Within the same tier, ties break by raw HR probability, most likely first.

Filter row:

• 🔍 Player search: type any name (accent, suffix and initials tolerant, so Acuña, Witt Jr. and J.P. Crawford are all reachable)
• 📊 Beats Market / 🤖 Beats Model: restrict to plays that are +EV by either fair value
• 🔥 Steaming: only players whose market implied probability has risen since today's open
• 🔒 Hide frozen: drop cards whose lines have pulled
• Best Book multi-select: show only plays where one of your books has the best price
• MIQ ≥ / Park HR ≥ / Zone Fit ≥ / Pull Air% ≥ sliders in More Filters. The Pull Air% slider narrows the feed to hitters with a real pull-in-the-air power profile

Inherits your Exclude Books setting from the Value Finder: best odds get re-picked across non-excluded books automatically, and a small note at the top of the feed tells you which books are excluded.

Save your filters: hit 💾 Save in the filter row to store the current criteria (sort, MIQ / Park / Zone Fit / Hot Bat / Pull Air thresholds, best-book, hide-frozen, steam) and 📂 Load them back any time, the same Save/Load flow as the Value Finder's saved filters. Day-specific game/team/name filters aren't saved, so a loaded set applies cleanly to any slate.

HR Feed: Expanded Card#

Tap any card to reveal the deeper view:

• MIQ sub-score breakdown: Pitch Mix Fit, Zone Fit, Batter Barrel, Pitcher Barrel with horizontal bars
• Pull Air% bar: the hitter's home-run-power tendency (vs the opposing hand) as a horizontal bar, with a Fastballs / Breaking / Offspeed pitch-group breakdown underneath. Standalone, not part of the MIQ score
• Last 15 Games strip and bat-heat composite (above)
• Model EV / Market EV / projected HR / season 1+ HR% mini-tiles
• 24h line movement sparkline with per-book lines plus fair value overlay
• All Sportsbooks grid with per-book odds and ↗ betslip deep links
• Alt Line · 2+ HR: a one-line summary of the multi-homer market under the all-books grid: model probability, best book/odds, and 🤖 model + 📊 market EV with recommended units. Hover (or tap) the best 2+ odds for an all-books popup of 2+ prices; hover an EV for its fair value, probability, and recommended stake.
• Open full Player Panel button, which jumps to the same Player Panel as the Value Finder, with batted ball profile, zone heatmap, charts, etc.

HR Feed: Export CSV#

The ⬇ CSV button (next to the slate count) exports the current, filtered and sorted feed, one row per player, with all the key fields: rank, tier, player/matchup, opposing pitcher, 1+ & 2+ HR probability, model & market fair value + EV, best book/odds, MIQ and its four sub-scores, Pull Air% (with sample size), park HR%, hot bat, projected HR, season 1+ HR%, weather, steam, and frozen status.

When to use HR Feed vs the Home Runs table#

Home Runs#

Shows every batter with a meaningful HR probability, grouped by game:

• 1+ HR and 2+ HR probabilities: Monte Carlo model projections color-coded by likelihood
• Season hit rates: how often this player has actually hit 1+ or 2+ HR this season
• Park HR factor: venue impact on home run probability (color-coded badge)
• MIQ score: our MatchIQ matchup rating for this batter vs the opposing pitcher
• Best odds and book: stacked for 1+ (top) and 2+ (bottom) thresholds
• Model opp star: gold star when our model finds the best book odds beat our fair value on 1+ HR
• Hover tooltip: projected HR/TB/Hits, season StatBars with hit fractions, park HR factor, MIQ breakdown, and odds with EV%

SB Feed#

A card view of the stolen base market, the speed-game counterpart to the HR Feed. Same scrollable, mobile-first feed format, but the tiles and tiers are built for steals: how likely the runner is to go, how easy the opposing battery is to run on, and how likely he is to even reach base. It sits alongside the Stolen Bases table.

SB Feed Cards#

Above the fold:

• Player headshot with team logo overlay
• Name, team · position · batter hand
• Opposing pitcher with hand badge
• Matchup, game time, and batting order; confirmed lineups show a ✅ and a bold green order
• Best available 1+ SB odds with book badge; hover for a sparkline of today's line movement
• Inline EV pills: 🤖 model EV / 📊 market EV with the recommended Kelly unit stake, whenever either side is +EV
• + Parlay button: one-tap add to Parlay HQ, switches to ✓ when in slip

SB Feed Stat Tiles: Model, Market, Run Game, On Base#

Same "text stays neutral; background color carries the signal" language as the HR Feed, but the right two tiles are SB-specific (park factors don't drive steals):

• Model: model fair value odds + model 1+ SB probability. Background colored by relative decile within today's pool.
• Market: market fair value odds + market implied probability. Same relative-decile coloring.
• Run Game: Run-Game Susceptibility (0–100), how easy the opposing battery is to run on, with a 🟢/↗/🔒 icon and an EASY → LOCKDOWN label. Absolute coloring (green = easy to run on).
• On Base: projected times on base (projected singles + walks), your chances to even attempt a steal, with season OBP underneath.

Run Game: how it's calculated#

Run Game is the SB matchup signal that replaces HR park factors. It's a 0–100 score (higher = easier to run on) that combines two halves:

• Team (catcher + staff): the opposing team's stolen bases allowed per game, caught-stealing rate, and pickoff rate, percentiled across the 30 MLB teams.
• Starter: the matchup starting pitcher's own stolen bases allowed per 9 innings. This is where the pitcher's hold ability and handedness enter; lefties generally rate tougher to run on because they face first base.

SB Feed Header Chips#

• 🟢 GREEN LIGHT: the SB equivalent of the HR Feed's TOP PICK, a curated steal spot that clears every gate (a real steal probability, a susceptible opposing battery, a high chance of reaching base, and a sane price). Green glow border around the card.
• ⚡ DOUBLE EDGE / 🤖 MODEL EDGE / 📊 MARKET EDGE: the same edge tiers as the HR Feed (both model + market agree / model-only / market-only +EV).
• 🔥 STEAMING / 📈: market implied probability rising vs today's open · ❄️ COOLING / 📉: falling
• 🔒 frozen indicator when a line has pulled

Recent SB Form Strip#

Inside the expanded view, every player gets a Last 15 Games strip: green squares for games he stole a base (count shown for multi-steal nights), amber squares with an ✗ for games he was caught, gray for no attempt. Per-game tooltips show date, opponent, SB/CS, and times on base; the footer summarizes the window (total SB · CS · success rate · attempts).

Run Game Breakdown#

The expanded card breaks the Run Game score into bars, like the HR Feed's MIQ sub-scores, each a percentile where longer / greener = easier to steal on:

• Team SB Allowed, Weak Throw-Out (low caught-stealing rate), Few Pickoffs, and Weak SP Hold (the starter's own steals-allowed rate).

A caption (↑ longer / greener = easier to steal on) anchors the direction, and the line below shows the raw numbers: the final Run Game score and label, the team's SB allowed per game, and opponent caught-stealing %.

Alt Line · 2+ SB#

Under the all-books grid, a one-line summary of the multi-steal market: model probability, best book/odds, and 🤖 model + 📊 market EV with recommended units. Hover (or tap) the best 2+ odds for an all-books popup of 2+ prices; hover an EV for its fair value, probability, and recommended stake.

On-Base Context#

Because almost every steal starts with reaching first, the expanded card also surfaces projected singles, projected walks, 1+ single probability, and season OBP, all heatmapped.

SB Feed: Sort, Filter, CSV#

Sort options: Tier (default), Steal Probability, Run Game, On Base, Market EV, Model EV, 🔥 Steam. Within the same tier, ties break by raw steal probability.

Filter row: 🔍 player search (accent/suffix tolerant), 📊 Beats Market / 🤖 Beats Model, 🔥 Steaming, 🔒 Hide frozen, Best Book / Game / Team multi-selects, plus Steal Prob ≥ / Run Game ≥ / On Base ≥ sliders in More Filters. Inherits your Exclude Books setting from the Value Finder.

⬇ CSV exports the current filtered and sorted feed, one row per player, with steal probabilities (1+ & 2+), model & market fair value + EV, best book/odds, Run Game and its four components, opponent SB-allowed/CS rates, projected SB, projected on-base, season SB rates, 2+ odds, steam, and frozen status.

SB Feed: Expanded Card#

Tap any card for the deeper view: the Last 15 SB strip, Run Game breakdown bars and raw rates, EV / projected SB / season 1+ SB% tiles, on-base detail, the 24h line-movement sparkline, the All Sportsbooks grid with ↗ betslip links, the Alt Line · 2+ SB row, and an Open full Player Panel button.

When to use SB Feed vs the Stolen Bases table#

Stolen Bases#

Shows speed-threat batters with SB probability, grouped by game:

• 1+ SB and 2+ SB probabilities: Monte Carlo projections with color thresholds calibrated for the SB market
• Season SB rates: historical 1+/2+ SB hit rates with game counts
• MIQ score: matchup quality rating
• Best odds and book: for 1+ and 2+ SB thresholds
• Model opp star: when the model finds value on 1+ SB
• Hover tooltip: includes a "Getting On Base" section with OBP, projected singles, projected walks, and 1+ single probability (since most SBs start from first base), plus opposing pitcher WHIP for context on how easily this batter can reach base

Strikeouts#

An expanded pitcher-centric view: instead of one row per player, each starting pitcher gets a detailed card with a per-line breakdown:

• Pitcher header: name, hand badge, tier/rank badge, MIQ score, projected K, projected IP, K/9, ERA
• K threshold grid: one row for each strikeout line, showing:
  • Monte Carlo probability with visual bar
  • Season hit rate (how many starts the pitcher reached that threshold, e.g., "7/10 70%")
  • Best available odds and book for that specific line
  • Per-line model opp star (so you can see exactly which K lines have value)
• Opposing lineup context: projected team K total, average K per batter, opposing lineup's average MIQ (with a "weak/below avg/avg/strong" label), and L/R/S batter hand breakdown
• Side-by-side layout: both starting pitchers displayed next to each other within each game card for easy comparison
• Hover tooltip: full K probability StatBars, season K distribution (avg K/start + last 5 starts), opposing lineup details, and model value summary

Doubles & Triples#

Extra-base hit markets with both doubles and triples in one view:

• 1+ Double and 1+ Triple probabilities: Monte Carlo projections
• Park XBH factor: venue impact on extra-base hits (color-coded badge)
• Projected doubles and triples: today's model projections
• Best odds and book: stacked with doubles on top, triples on bottom
• Split model opp stars: separate stars for doubles (top) and triples (bottom)
• Hover tooltip: projected 2B/3B, season 1+ rates with StatBars, park XBH context, MIQ, and odds with EV%

Moonshots & Lasers#

FanDuel offers two fun novelty home run markets, and this tab is our take on them: a model projection and an edge on every one. These are high-variance props, so play lightly and use discernment.

• 🚀 Moonshot: will the player hit a home run that travels 420+ feet (or 400+ feet)?
• ⚡ Laser: will the player hit a home run 105+ or 110+ mph off the bat?

In simple terms: these are "did they crush it" props, and we tell you how likely each hitter is to do it today versus what FanDuel is charging.

How the Moonshot and Laser Model Works#

Every projection is built from two pieces:

1. P(hits ≥1 HR today): our regular Monte Carlo home run projection (matchup, park, weather, lineup), the same engine behind the HR Feed.
2. P(that HR clears the threshold): how hard/far this specific hitter tends to hit his home runs, measured from his own Statcast exit-velocity and distance profile. Light-contact hitters rarely clear 110 mph even when they go deep; guys like Judge or Schwarber clear it constantly. Small samples are regressed toward a power-tier baseline, and the exit-velocity side is adjusted for the handedness of today's starting pitcher.

Multiply the two and you get Model %, our true probability for the prop. From there we derive Model Fair odds (what the price should be) and EV% (your edge versus FanDuel's actual price).

A note on these markets, please use discernment: the biggest edges here are almost always deep longshots (110-mph lasers at +8000 and up). A tiny probability difference times a huge payout produces a gigantic EV%, but these are lottery tickets with real variance and low betting limits. That's exactly why the board defaults to sorting by Kelly, not EV%: Kelly stakes each pick by its true edge and variance, so the genuinely bettable plays float to the top and the moonshot longshots settle to a tiny stake. Treat EV% as a secondary signal, and never bet more than the Kelly column suggests.

The Board Sub-Tab#

The default view: today's full slate of FanDuel moonshot/laser props with our model next to their price.

Freshness: a green dot under the header shows when the odds were last updated (e.g. "Odds updated 8m ago"). Once a game starts and FanDuel pulls its props, they drop off the board automatically.

Columns, left to right (identity and matchup first, history in the middle, market and edge on the right):

• Player: headshot + team logo, batter hand badge (L/R/S), and the matchup. Click the name to open the full Player Panel.
• MIQ: the player's MatchIQ score today, heatmapped green (elite) to red (poor).
• Opp SP: opposing starting pitcher with hand badge.
• Park: HR park factor % and today's temperature (both nudge distance for moonshots).
• % HR / % Gm (Season): the hitter's raw season rates: what share of his home runs cleared this threshold, and what share of his games had one. Reference points so you can sanity-check the model against reality.
• Prop: Moonshot 420+ or 400+, Laser 105+, or Laser 110+.
• FD: FanDuel's current price. Tap it to send the bet straight to your FanDuel betslip (↗), or hover it to see a sparkline of today's line movement: green if the line has shortened (steaming toward the prop), red if it's drifted. Where we have no FanDuel price for a prop, the cell says check odds; look it up in the FanDuel app.
• Model %: our true probability.
• Model Fair: what we think the odds should be.
• EV%: your edge at FanDuel's price (green = +EV).
• Kelly: recommended stake in units. The default sort, and the number to trust.

Player tooltip: hover any player name for today's Proj HR, P(≥1 HR), the model probability and fair odds, the season rates, and the MIQ sub-scores (Pitch Mix, Zone Fit, Batter Barrel, Pitcher Barrel) with tier colors.

Filters: market picker (All / 🚀 420+ Moonshots / 🚀 400+ Moonshots / ⚡ Laser 105+ / ⚡ Laser 110+), FD odds only (hides model-only rows with no FanDuel line), player search, Game and Team multi-selects, Min HR sample, Min MIQ, Park ≥, and +EV only. Every column header sorts.

Mobile: each prop becomes a card with headshot, name, a big EV% + Kelly badge, and a compact grid of prop / FD price / Model % / opposing SP / park / season rates. Tap a card to open the Player Panel.

The Tracking Sub-Tab#

Toggle to 📈 Tracking to see how our picks have actually done. Every morning we grade the prior day's board and record the results.

• Summary cards: Latest day, Last 7 days, and All-time, each showing Kelly P&L (the headline), record, hit rate, and flat P&L with ROI.
• History table: every graded pick: date, player, prop, the median line it was priced at, Model %, EV%, Kelly, flat & Kelly P&L, and a HIT / MISS / VOID badge. Filter by market, result, or +EV-only, and sort any column.

A few important details on how we grade:

• P&L is tracked on the +EV picks, the props the model actually flagged as value.
• Priced at the median line. Because the board refreshes through the day, a prop might be +1500 in the morning and +1300 by night. We settle at the median of the day's snapshots so the P&L reflects a fair, representative price rather than the best or worst tick.
• Two P&L numbers, and Kelly is the honest one. Flat P&L bets 1 unit on every pick, which, on a slate full of longshots, swings wildly. Kelly P&L stakes each pick by its edge, so it reflects how you'd actually bet the board. Expect the flat and Kelly lines to tell very different stories on longshot-heavy days.
• Voids don't count. If a player didn't play (scratched, didn't get an at-bat), the prop is marked VOID and excluded from P&L, just like the book would void it.

Please use discernment with small samples. These are high-variance markets; a handful of days tells you very little. Lean on the longer windows before drawing conclusions.

Which Books Offer These Props#

This board is FanDuel-only: these are FanDuel's own novelty markets, so every price and betslip link on the board is FanDuel's.

SGP Browser#

The SGP Value Board. The SGP Browser (🎰) is a read-only board of every fully-priced home-run same-game parlay (SGP) we generate: both the ones we post to Discord and the much larger set we don't. It exists so you can serve yourself: browse the full board, filter to your taste, and pick combos we never sent, instead of waiting on a handful of Discord picks.

What's an SGP here? A 4-leg parlay where all four legs are "Player X hits a home run," all in the same game. We price each combo at both DraftKings and FanDuel, and surface the ones where DK pays meaningfully more than FD.

Why DK vs FD? FanDuel is the sharper HR pricer, so we treat its price as "fair." When DraftKings pays a lot more for the identical parlay, that gap (the Spread %) is our value signal (effectively EV over fair). We recommend betting these at DraftKings.

SGP Browser Views#

• 📅 By date: the default. Pick a single day or a date range (the two date boxes are a From → To filter; leave them equal for one day). The ◀ ▶ buttons slide the window; Today snaps back to today.
• 🏆 All winners: every winning parlay across all dates, in one place. Great for studying what actually hit.

How to Read an SGP Combo#

Each row is one priced parlay:

SGP Flag Chips and Filters#

The five chips mirror the emojis from our Discord posts. Click any chip to filter to combos that carry it (stack them to narrow further):

• 🎯 Top pick: the game's #1 value-first combo
• 🧠 Model +EV: our model's edge vs DK is positive
• 💰 Max payout: sitting at DK's payout cap
• 🌶️ Big premium: DK pays ≥175% more than FD
• ⭐ Elite matchup: average MIQ ≥ 60

Other filters: a 🔍 player search (find every combo a hitter is in, across the loaded date(s) or the All-Winners view), date / range, game, Sent (All / ✅ Sent only / ◻️ Un-sent only; browse the un-sent board to find combos to add yourself), and Result (including "Hit — clean" to isolate true 4/4 winners with no voids). There are also four slider filters (Spread %, Avg. MIQ, Model Edge, and DK Odds), each with a ≥ / ≤ toggle so you can set a floor or a ceiling (e.g. a DK odds ceiling, a spread floor, or Model Edge ≥ 0% to isolate the +EV combos). Every numeric column header is sortable: click to sort high→low, click again to reverse. Default sort is Spread % (value-first).

SGP P/L Tracking and Summary Cards#

Four cards sit at the top of the tab:

• Sent · Yesterday, Sent · Last 7, and Sent · All-time: these track only the combos we actually posted to Discord, and they match our Discord results digest exactly.
• Filtered · shown (●LIVE): totals the P/L of whatever you're currently looking at, updating as you filter. Use it to ask "what if I'd bet every combo above a given spread this week?"

Staking: P/L is tracked at a flat 0.05u per combo so the numbers are comparable. These are high-variance longshots: we recommend sizing each combo to your own comfort, roughly 0.01–0.05u. All the cards assume 0.05u flat.

SGP Voids and Pushes#

If a hitter is scratched from the lineup, that leg voids and the parlay re-prices on the remaining legs:

• If the rest all homer, it wins at reduced odds. When we've recorded the confirmed adjusted odds, P/L is counted at those (shown with an adj tag). When we haven't, it's a push: no win or loss, excluded from P/L, ROI, and hit-rate.
• If every leg voids, the whole bet is voided (stake returned), also a push.

This is why you'll occasionally see "push" in the P/L column instead of a number: we will never invent a payout we can't confirm.

Reading SGP Results Honestly#

The board shows real, settled results, but a tiny number of "everyone homers" games drive almost everything, so headline ROI is wildly tail-concentrated and should not be read as a steady, repeatable return. A handful of game-days account for a large share of all winning combos, and a single eruption game can produce dozens of winners on its own.

The takeaway: when a game goes nuclear, dozens of these parlays cash at once, which inflates any win/ROI figure. On the vast majority of nights, most combos miss; that's the nature of 4-leg HR longshots. Treat the board as a menu of correctly-priced value, not a promise of profit. Bet small, spread your action, and don't chase a number that was really made by a couple of box scores.

A Tip for Wide Date Ranges#

Loading a long date range with no other filter pulls a lot of rows and can stall, since the history holds a very large number of priced combos. If you want to look across many days, turn on a server-side filter first:

• Toggle ✅ Sent only (our posted picks are a tiny slice), or
• Use the 🏆 All winners view (winners only), or
• Just narrow the date window.

The tab shows a hint to this effect whenever you open a multi-day range. A single day always loads fine.

SGP Browser on Mobile#

The table collapses into cards: each combo becomes its own card with the hitters, the DK/FD/Spread/Model Edge/MIQ stats, flags, freshness, result, and the betslip-or-P/L action. Everything is filterable and sortable just like the desktop view.

MIQ HQ#

MIQ HQ (MatchIQ Headquarters) is a dedicated matchup analysis view that lets you explore pitcher-batter matchups at the pitch-type level across every game on the slate. It complements the MIQ scores you see elsewhere in the suite by giving you the full, detailed picture.

MIQ HQ Layout#

Each game is displayed as a card with two teams side by side (stacked on mobile). Within each team's section:

1. SP Header: the opposing starting pitcher's name and hand badge, so you know who these batters are facing
2. Pitch Mix Rows: two rows showing the pitcher's pitch usage % broken down by hand (vs RHB and vs LHB), with frequency heatmapping so you can instantly see which pitches they throw most to each hand
3. Pitcher Stat Rows: the pitcher's stats (barrel %, exit velo, etc.) on each pitch type, split by batter hand
4. Batter Context: a label indicating that all batter stats below are vs the opposing pitcher's hand type (e.g., "Batter stats vs RIGHT-handed pitching")
5. Batter Rows: each starter in batting order, showing their stats on each pitch type vs the opposing pitcher's hand

MIQ HQ Columns#

• #: batting order position (green + glowing = lineup confirmed, amber + italic = unconfirmed)
• Player: full name, clickable to open the Player Panel
• Pos: color-coded position badge
• Bat: batter hand badge (R = red, L = blue, S = purple)
• MIQ: Master MatchIQ score (with icon: star = Elite, circle = Good, square = Neutral, X = Poor). Hover over the score to see the four sub-score breakdown (Pitch Mix, Zone Fit, Batter Barrel, Pitcher Barrel).
• #P: number of pitches seen/thrown (sample size indicator, heatmapped by volume: green = large sample, red = small)
• Tot: weighted average of the selected stat across all pitch types
• Pitch Type Columns: fixed order (FF, SL, SI, CH, CU, FC, SV, KC, FS, ST) so columns never move when switching views. Color-coded badges with hover-to-reveal full pitch name.

MIQ HQ Game Card Headers#

Each game card shows: team logos, matchup (e.g., "SF @ CIN"), venue, game time, park factor badges (separate color-coded badges for Runs, HR, and XBH showing the % deviation), weather conditions (temperature, wind speed, or dome indicator), and O/U plus model total.

MIQ HQ Filters#

The filter bar stays fixed at the top as you scroll:

• Day: Today / Tomorrow
• Time Window: controls which time period the barrel rates and other stats are drawn from. The ★ window (the recommended default) weights this season and last season together for the most stable read. Last 10 and Last 30 show raw recent performance, and the full-season options show this season or last season on their own. All windows use regular-season games only, so during the postseason they stop at the last regular-season game.
• Stat: Barrel %, Exit Velo, Hard Hit %, Avg LA, Whiff %, Zone Fit. This toggles which stat is displayed in every cell across every game card. Zone Fit mode shows whether the pitcher locates each pitch type in the batter's strong or weak zones, with color-coded numbers (green = good for batter, red = bad). The Tot column shows the composite zone fit score.

How to Use MIQ HQ#

Pre-bet research: Before betting a batter prop, navigate to their game in MIQ HQ and check how they perform on each pitch the opposing SP throws. A batter who barrels fastballs facing a fastball-heavy pitcher is a fundamentally different play than one who barrels only sliders.

Pitcher vulnerability analysis: Check the SP stat rows to see which pitches they're weakest on. If a pitcher gives up high barrel rates on their most-thrown pitch, every batter in that lineup benefits.

Recency check: Toggle to Last 10 to see if a batter has been hot or cold recently on specific pitch types. A batter who's been barreling everything lately is trending differently than one whose season numbers look good but recent form is poor.

Sample size awareness: The #P column tells you how much data backs up each number. A 15% barrel rate on 200 pitches means something different than 15% on 8 pitches.

Bench Players#

Bench players are collapsed by default under a "Bench (N)" toggle at the bottom of each team's section. Click to expand and see bench player stats, useful for pinch-hit scenarios or if a lineup change is expected.

Game Logs#

The Game Logs tab shows historical player performance: every game, with full box score stats for both batters and pitchers. This is your tool for verifying recent form and validating projections against actual results.

What You'll See in Game Logs#

For each game log entry:

• Date, player name, position, team, opponent, home/away
• Game type (REG, ST, WC, DS, LCS, WS, ASG)
• Batting order position
• Batter stats: H, AB, R, HR, RBI, BB, K, SB, TB, 2B, 3B (heatmapped)
• Pitcher stats: PK (strikeouts), IP, ER, HA (hits allowed), PBB (walks), heatmapped and inverted where appropriate (lower ER/HA/BB is greener)

Game Logs Filters#

• Player name: type any part of a name
• Season: one season, or All Seasons
• Game Type: Regular Season, Spring Training, Postseason rounds, etc.
• Position: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, LF, CF, RF, DH, SP, RP
• Date range: from and to dates

Enter a player name or pick filters, then hit Search to load the logs. Load More at the bottom pulls the next batch.

Using Game Logs#

• Verify recent form: is a batter on a hot streak? Has a pitcher's K rate dropped recently?
• Check vs opponent: how did this player perform in previous meetings this season?
• Home/away splits: some players perform very differently based on location
• Validate projections: do our model projections align with what you see in recent games?
• Identify role changes: a sudden jump or drop in batting order position can signal a lineup change the projection model might not have fully incorporated yet
• Isolate the regular season: use the Game Type filter to drop Spring Training for cleaner analysis

Pro tip: Cross-reference game logs with the hit rate data in player tooltips. If a player has been consistently hitting a threshold in recent games AND our model projects them favorably AND the market offers +EV odds, that's a strong multi-signal opportunity.

Player Panel (Batters)#

Click any batter's name anywhere in the suite to open the full Player Details Panel. This is your deep-dive research tool for individual batters.

Batter Panel Header and News#

The header shows the player's name, team, position, opponent, and any active injury status. Recent news items for the player appear below it, which is important for catching late scratches, batting order moves, or injury updates.

Batter Projections#

A row of projected stat values for today's game: Proj Hits, Proj HR, Proj RBIs, Proj TB, Proj SB, all heatmapped so you can see at a glance where this player stands relative to the typical range.

MKB MatchIQ (MIQ) Score#

Our proprietary matchup analysis system. This is unique to MLB and one of the most powerful features in the suite.

What it measures: The Master MIQ score is a composite of four sub-scores that together capture the full picture of a batter's matchup quality. Higher MIQ = better matchup for the batter.

The four sub-scores:

1. Pitch Mix Fit (matchup-specific, varies daily): how well the batter handles each pitch type in the opposing pitcher's arsenal. A batter who barrels fastballs facing a fastball-heavy pitcher scores high. This is the core of MIQ and has the strongest predictive signal for home runs.

2. Zone Fit (matchup-specific, varies daily): does the pitcher locate his pitches in parts of the strike zone where this batter does more or less damage than usual? See Understanding Zone Fit.

3. Batter Barrel % (general quality, stable): how good this batter is at barreling the ball against this pitcher's hand (RHP or LHP), ranked as a percentile against all MLB batters. This captures the batter's overall hitting quality independent of the specific matchup.

4. Pitcher Barrel % (general quality, stable): how much the opposing pitcher allows barrels to batters of this hand, ranked as a percentile against all MLB pitchers. A pitcher who gives up lots of barrels makes every batter's matchup better.

Each sub-score is graded on a unified scale (Elite / Good / Average / Below Avg / Poor) with color-coded badges. The Master MIQ combines all four and is percentile-ranked against the day's slate, so the grades always mean "relative to today's matchups."

Where to see sub-scores:

• Player Panel: the MIQ section shows the Master MIQ banner plus all four sub-scores in a 2x2 grid
• MIQ HQ: hover over any batter's MIQ score to see the four sub-score breakdown
• Value Finder: hover over any player name to see the MIQ score with sub-scores in the tooltip

Below the MIQ sub-scores, you'll also see venue/weather context and park factor scores:

• Park Factor: Park HR, Park XBH, and Park Runs scores showing how much the venue impacts production
• Bullpen: the quality of the opposing bullpen vs this batter's hand (factors in once the SP exits)

Pull Air%#

What it measures: Pull Air% is the share of a hitter's batted balls that are both pulled and in the air (line drives and fly balls, not grounders). It's one of the best single tells for home-run power. Most MLB home runs come on pulled fly balls, and while pulled air balls are only a small share of all batted balls league-wide, they produce a massive slugging output. League average sits in the high teens; elite pull-air hitters are around 30% or more.

Why it's useful: Unlike raw exit velocity, Pull Air% captures swing approach: it's how undersized sluggers get to big home-run totals. It's also a sticky, year-over-year batter tendency (it stabilizes after a few hundred batted balls), so it's a stable, trustworthy read on a hitter's power profile rather than a hot-streak artifact.

Important: Pull Air% is a standalone descriptive stat; it is NOT part of the Master MIQ score. MIQ grades the matchup; Pull Air% describes the hitter. Read them together: a strong matchup (high MIQ) hits differently for a hitter who has the pull-in-the-air profile to punish it. All Pull Air% numbers are shown raw (never regressed or smoothed).

How we show it:

• The headline number is vs the opposing starter's hand (a lefty's pull-air vs RHP can differ from vs LHP), with the sample size (BBE) shown so you can judge reliability.
• A Fastballs / Breaking / Offspeed pitch-group breakdown shows where the pull-air power lives, useful against a pitcher who leans on one pitch category.
• Prior-season and R/L splits give context.

Where to see it:

• Player Panel: a dedicated Pull Air% card below the MIQ sub-scores: headline (vs hand), Season / vs-R / vs-L / prior-year splits, and the pitch-group bars
• HR Feed: a 💨 PA chip on every card, a Pull Air% ≥ filter, and a Pull Air% bar (with pitch groups) in the expanded card
• Value Finder & tab tooltips: a "Pull Air% (HR power)" row when you hover a player name
• MIQ HQ: the batter's MIQ-score hover tooltip shows Pull Air% (below a divider, separate from the four MIQ sub-scores) with the pitch-group split

Sample-size note: vs-hand and pitch-group splits divide an already-limited season of batted balls, so small samples (we flag anything under 25 BBE) can be noisy. Lean on the overall/season number as the stable anchor and treat the fine-grained splits as directional.

MatchIQ Breakdown (Pitch Grid)#

Below the MIQ score, a detailed pitch-by-pitch grid shows every pitch type in the opposing pitcher's arsenal. The grid shows both pitcher and batter stats side by side for each pitch type, with a context header showing the opposing SP name, hand, and what hand split the batter stats represent.

Zone Fit column: the first metric column after pitch usage. For each pitch type, this shows whether the pitcher locates that pitch in zones where the batter does more or less damage than usual. Graded Elite/Good/Average/Below Avg/Poor with a small % showing the relative deviation. Hover for a tooltip showing the pitcher's top zones for that pitch and the batter's barrel rate in each.

Pitcher columns (red headers): what the opposing SP allows on each pitch type against this batter's hand:

• SP Brl%: how often this pitcher gives up barrels on this pitch (heatmapped: green = pitcher is barrel-prone, good for batter)
• SP EV: average exit velocity the pitcher allows
• SP HH%: hard-hit rate the pitcher allows (95+ mph)
• SP LA: average launch angle the pitcher allows
• SP Wh%: pitcher's whiff rate on this pitch

Batter columns (blue headers): this batter's performance on each pitch type vs the opposing pitcher's hand:

• Bat Brl%: how often this batter barrels up this pitch type (heatmapped: green = batter crushes this pitch)
• Bat EV: batter's average exit velocity on this pitch
• Bat HH%: batter's hard-hit rate
• Bat LA: batter's average launch angle
• Bat Wh%: batter's whiff rate (lower = better, green when low)

Each pitch type is color-coded (red for fastballs, blue for breaking balls, green for offspeed) for quick visual identification. The frequency bar shows how often the pitcher throws each pitch, with the usage % alongside.

A link at the bottom, "View full MIQ HQ for this game", takes you directly to the MIQ HQ tab for deeper analysis of the entire game matchup.

Batted Ball Profile#

A visual analysis of the batter's recent batted ball events, built from individual Statcast data. A context line at the top (e.g., "Today Corbin faces a RIGHT-HANDED pitcher Kyle Bradish") keeps the matchup in view while you explore the data.

Four views (toggle between them):

• EV / LA (Scatter Plot): exit velocity (Y-axis) vs. launch angle (X-axis) for each ball in play. Dots are color-coded by outcome: green = home run, blue = extra-base hit, purple = single, red = out. Barrels are shown as larger dots with a white border. The chart has three shaded zones: Ground Ball (LA < 8°), Sweet Spot (8–38°), and Pop Up (> 38°). Axes are fixed across all players so you can compare patterns visually.

• Spray Chart: an overhead field view showing where each batted ball landed, plotted from Statcast hit coordinates. Same color coding as the scatter plot. Barrel dots are larger. Useful for seeing pull/oppo tendencies and whether a batter is consistently hitting to certain zones.

• List: a table of each individual batted ball event showing date, pitcher (with hand badge), pitch type (color-coded badge), exit velocity, launch angle, distance, and result (HR/XBH/1B/OUT/BRL badges). Useful for spotting which pitches a batter is making the hardest contact on.

• Zone: a 3x3 strike zone heatmap showing the batter's performance (barrel %, SLG, exit velo, or hard-hit %) in each zone. Toggle between stats using the pills at the top. When the batter has a starting pitcher matchup today, the heatmap overlays the pitcher's zone frequency: brighter cells = zones where the pitcher throws more often, with a small yellow % badge showing exact frequency. A "Batting Left/Right" label shows which side of the plate the batter stands on (correctly flipped for switch hitters). An "outside zone" toggle reveals performance on pitches outside the strike zone (chase/waste areas). Zone labels (In/Away) automatically adjust based on batter handedness.

Filters apply to all four views:

• Recency: L5, L10, L20, L50 (most recent N balls in play, spanning seasons) or a full season (this season or last)
• Pitcher Hand: All, vs RHP, vs LHP
• Pitch Type: filter to specific pitch types to focus your analysis

Quick Stats Bar shows at-a-glance: total BIP count, average exit velocity, barrel count, and hard-hit count for the current filter.

Understanding Zone Fit#

Zone Fit is one of the most distinctive features in the MLB Tool Suite. It answers a question that traditional matchup analysis misses: does the pitcher locate his pitches where the batter can actually hurt them?

The problem Zone Fit solves: Standard pitch-type analysis tells you a batter barrels fastballs at 15%, but that's across ALL zones. If the pitcher locates his fastball low-and-away where this specific batter only barrels 3%, the real matchup is very different from what the pitch-type number suggests.

How it works: For each pitch type the opposing SP throws, we look at where they actually locate it (using Statcast zone data), then check the batter's barrel rate specifically in those zones. We compare this to the batter's own overall barrel rate to determine if the pitcher is feeding the batter's strengths (Elite/Good) or exploiting their weaknesses (Below Avg/Poor).

Key points:

• Zone Fit is hand-specific: it uses the batter's zone performance specifically against pitchers of the opposing hand, and the pitcher's zone tendencies specifically against batters of this hand
• It's relative to the batter's own average, which makes it a true matchup signal, not just a measure of overall batter quality. Aaron Judge might be Elite in general, but his Zone Fit can still be Poor on a day where the pitcher locates away from his power zones
• The matchup-specific sub-scores (Pitch Mix Fit + Zone Fit) change every day based on who the batter faces, while the quality sub-scores (Batter Barrel % + Pitcher Barrel %) are stable

Where to see Zone Fit:

• Player Panel → MIQ Sub-Scores: Zone Fit score with Elite/Good/Average/Below Avg/Poor label
• Player Panel → MatchIQ Breakdown: per-pitch Zone Fit in the first metric column
• Player Panel → Batted Ball Profile → Zone View: visual 3x3 zone heatmap with pitcher frequency overlay
• MIQ HQ → Zone Fit stat mode: full-slate Zone Fit view showing every batter's zone fit per pitch type across every game
• Value Finder Tooltip: hover any player name to see Zone Fit alongside the other MIQ sub-scores

Season Stats#

Two rows of heatmapped season statistics:

• Row 1: GP, AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS, 1+ Hit Rate %
• Row 2: H/G, HR/G, RBI/G, R/G, TB/G, SB/G

Hit Rates#

A table comparing season-to-date hit rates against model (Monte Carlo) probabilities for key thresholds:

• Hits: 1+, 2+, 3+
• Home Runs: 1+
• RBIs: 1+, 2+
• Total Bases: 1+, 2+, 3+
• Stolen Bases: 1+

For each threshold, you see the season hit rate (how often it has actually happened) alongside the model's projected probability for today. Discrepancies between the two can reveal whether recent form supports or contradicts the model.

Batter Charts#

Interactive charts showing game-by-game performance with reference lines for season average and today's projection:

• Hits, Total Bases and Home Runs per game (bar charts)
• RBIs, Runs, Stolen Bases, Strikeouts, Walks (bar charts)
• 5-game rolling average trend lines for Hits, Total Bases, and Home Runs

Batter Game Logs#

A compact game log table showing the most recent games with key stats (H, AB, R, HR, RBI, BB, K, SB, TB, 2B, 3B).

Batter All Props#

At the bottom, a consolidated view of all active Value Finder opportunities for this player across all markets, so you can see every available bet in one place without going back to the main table. Each prop has a + button to add it to Parlay HQ and a best book badge that links to the betslip.

Pitcher Panel#

Click any pitcher's name anywhere in the suite to open the Pitcher Panel. This is a separate, pitcher-specific layout with different sections than the batter panel.

Pitcher Projections#

Projected stat values for today's start: Proj K, Proj IP, Proj ER, Proj Hits Allowed, Proj BB, all heatmapped (inverted for negative stats so lower ER is greener).

Monte Carlo K Probabilities#

A row of heatmapped probability badges for each K threshold, from 3+ K % up to 10+ K %. This tells you at a glance how likely this pitcher is to hit each strikeout benchmark today.

Pitch Arsenal#

A detailed breakdown of the pitcher's pitch arsenal from Statcast data, shown by batter handedness (toggle between vs. RHB and vs. LHB). For each pitch type:

• Usage %: how often they throw it
• Velocity: average speed
• Spin Rate: RPM
• Barrel %: how often batters barrel this pitch (heatmapped)
• Exit Velo: average exit velocity against this pitch
• Launch Angle: average launch angle
• BA: batting average against this pitch
• wOBA: weighted on-base average against
• K %: strikeout rate with this pitch
• Whiff %: swing-and-miss rate

This helps you understand which pitches are dominant and which are vulnerable, which is critical for evaluating strikeout props and whether a pitcher will go deep into a game.

Pitcher Charts#

• Strikeouts per start (bar chart)
• Innings Pitched per start (bar chart)
• Earned Runs per start (bar chart)
• 5-start rolling K average (trend line)

Recent Starts#

A table of the pitcher's recent starts showing date, opponent, K, IP, ER, hits allowed, walks, and result.

Pitcher All Props#

All active Value Finder opportunities for this pitcher across all markets.

Common Scenarios#

Just getting started? Here are the most common things people want to do and exactly how to accomplish them.

"I want to see the best bets available right now"#

1. Go to the Value Finder tab
2. Make sure FV Mode is set to Market FV (the default)
3. Click the High Confidence preset
4. The table is already sorted by Conf. Adj. Recc. U, highest value at the top
5. Hover over any player name for a quick sanity check (model projection + hit rate)

"I only have access to certain books — I want to ignore the ones I can't use"#

1. Click Exclude Books in the toolbar
2. Check every book you don't have an account at
3. Best Book, EV %, and Recc. U instantly recalculate to show your next-best available option
4. Exclusions stick in your browser automatically. To carry them to other devices, click Save, name it something like "My Books", and Load it there.

"A sportsbook is running a profit boost — how do I evaluate it?"#

1. Click Boost in the toolbar and stay on the Boost tab
2. Select the book running the promotion (e.g., DK) and the boost percentage (e.g., 25%)
3. Every row now shows the post-boost EV and Recc. U for DK; positive EV rows are worth considering
4. When you're done, click Clear to return to normal

"A sportsbook is offering a no-sweat or insured bet — how do I evaluate it?"#

1. Click Boost in the toolbar and switch to the No-Sweat tab
2. Select the book offering the promo
3. Set the Insured Amount (how much of your wager is returned as bonus bets if you lose; usually 100%)
4. Set the Est. Conversion Rate (how much real money you expect per dollar of bonus bets; 75% is typical)
5. EV and Recc. U recalculate to show the value with reduced downside. Look for the highest EV plays

"I have a bonus bet / free bet — what should I use it on?"#

1. Click Boost in the toolbar and switch to the Bonus Bet tab
2. Select the book where you have the bonus bet
3. The EV % column becomes Conv %, your expected return per dollar of bonus bet
4. Sort by Conv % and look for plays in the +200 to +400 odds range, the sweet spot
5. Avoid using bonus bets on heavy favorites (poor conversion) or extreme longshots (high variance)

"I want to find bets where Pinnacle's devigged odds say there's value at other books"#

1. Click FV Mode in the toolbar
2. Select PN under "Single Book (Devigged)"
3. The table now shows EV and Recc. U calculated using Pinnacle's devigged odds as fair value
4. Only rows where Pinnacle has posted odds are shown: the most liquid, sharp-market-confirmed lines
5. Sort by Recc. U to find the largest edges relative to PN

"I want to see what our model thinks, not just the market"#

1. Click FV Mode and select Model FV
2. Or click the Model Edge preset to filter for rows where the model sees positive EV
3. For the gold standard: try Double Edge, which shows only bets where BOTH the market AND the model agree there's edge

"I want to research a specific player before betting"#

1. In the Value Finder tab, type the player's name in the player search/filter
2. Hover over their name to see a quick tooltip: model probability, hit rate, MIQ score
3. Click their name to open the full Player Details Panel: MIQ breakdown, pitch grid, season stats, hit rates, charts
4. Switch to the Game View tab to see them in context of their game: the opposing SP, weather, and park factor
5. Switch to Game Logs to check their recent form

"I want to check if a prop has been hitting lately before I bet it"#

1. Find the opportunity in the Value Finder
2. Hover over the Line value (desktop) or tap it (mobile) to open the line breakdown
3. Click VF History inside that panel
4. A table shows each recent day this exact prop (same player, market, line, side) appeared in the Value Finder, with the result (Hit / Miss / DNP / Pending)

"I want to find HR opportunities at hitter-friendly parks"#

1. Go to the Game View tab
2. Look at the Park Factor badge on each game card and focus on hitter-friendly parks ("Great for Runs" or "Good for Runs")
3. Note the weather too: wind blowing out amplifies the park effect
4. Identify batters with high MIQ scores and favorable batting order positions (1-5) in those games
5. Or go straight to the HR Feed in Special Markets and use the Park HR ≥ and MIQ ≥ sliders
6. Check the Home Runs and Total Bases opportunities for those players in the Value Finder

"I want to find K props for dominant pitchers"#

1. Go to the Projections tab and switch to the Pitchers sub-tab
2. Sort by Proj K or one of the Monte Carlo K columns (e.g., 6+ K %)
3. Look for pitchers with Ace or Elite tier, high K projections, and favorable opponent matchups
4. Click the pitcher name to open the Pitcher Panel and check their pitch arsenal and recent starts
5. Check the Strikeouts sub-tab in Special Markets for the per-line view, or filter the Value Finder to Market = "Pitcher Strikeouts" to find +EV K props

"I want to save my setup so I don't have to reconfigure every session"#

1. Set everything up the way you like: preset, FV mode, excluded books, sort, any column filters
2. Click Save and give it a name (e.g., "Daily Setup", "Hits Over")
3. Next session, click Load and select it; everything restores instantly, on any device

"I want context on which games are good scoring environments today"#

1. Go to the Game View tab
2. Read the MamaBot Slate Overview for a slate summary
3. Check the Game Summary Bar chips: each shows the model's projected total vs the market O/U. OVER badges mean the model projects more scoring than the market expects
4. Look at SP matchups: games where a Below Avg pitcher faces a strong lineup create scoring opportunities
5. Check weather and park factors: wind blowing out at a hitter-friendly park is the ideal combination
6. Click any chip to jump to that game's card and see player projections by team

Putting It All Together: A Full Workflow#

Here's how to combine the tabs into a complete pre-bet research flow:

Step 1: Start with Game View#

Open the Game View tab to get context on today's slate. Read the MamaBot Slate Overview. Note which games the model projects as high-scoring vs. pitcher-dominant. Check SP matchups (a weak pitcher against a strong lineup creates opportunities), weather (wind direction matters!) and park factors. Identify players with high MIQ scores batting in the top half of the order.

Step 2: Check Player Projections#

Switch to the Projections tab. Sort by the stat category you're interested in (e.g., 1+ HR % or 2+ H %) to find players the model is high on. Toggle between Batters and Pitchers sub-tabs. Note pitcher tiers: batters facing Below Avg pitchers in hitter-friendly parks are prime targets.

Step 3: Check Special Markets#

If you're interested in specific prop types, visit the Special Markets tab. Use the HR Feed and SB Feed card views to scan the home run and stolen base markets with tier badges (TOP PICK / GREEN LIGHT), matchup tiles, and recent-form strips, or the Home Runs, Stolen Bases, Strikeouts, and Doubles & Triples tables for a dense per-game grid.

Step 4: Find Value Opportunities#

Go to the Value Finder tab. Start with your preferred preset (High Confidence for conservative plays, or Model Edge / Double Edge for model-confirmed opportunities). In Market FV mode, sort by Conf. Adj. Recc. U to see the best-confidence plays.

Step 5: Validate the Opportunity#

Hover over the player name in the Value Finder to see the quick tooltip: does the model projection support the bet? Is the MIQ score favorable? Is the hit rate positive? If both edge indicators are green, that's a strong multi-signal confirmation.

Click the player name to open the full Player Details Panel. For batters, check the MatchIQ Breakdown pitch grid to understand why the matchup is favorable, the Batted Ball Profile to see recent batted ball quality, and click "View full MIQ HQ for this game" to explore the entire lineup's pitch-type matchup data. For pitchers, check the arsenal and recent starts.

Step 6: Check Game Logs (Optional)#

If you're on the fence, flip to Game Logs and look at recent performance. Is the batter on a hot streak? Has the pitcher's K rate been trending up or down?

Step 7: Check Sparklines Before Betting#

Before placing, hover over the Best Odds value in the Value Finder to check the sparkline. Is the line moving in your favor or against you? Has there been a steam move recently that might mean the opportunity is disappearing?

Step 8: Execute#

Place your bet at the Best Book shown, at the odds shown (the ↗ betslip links save you retyping it). If the odds have moved since you loaded the table, recalculate your stake accordingly, or just hit Refresh to see the latest data.

Quick Tips#

Sort by Conf. Adj. Recc. U (in Market FV mode). It's the most reliable single signal for prioritizing plays.

Use presets as shortcuts: High Confidence for bread-and-butter plays, Outlier Opportunities to find mispricings, Model Edge and Double Edge for model-validated plays.

Keep FV Mode on Market FV unless you specifically want to evaluate model-vs-book opportunities. Model FV is more aggressive.

Check SPs, parks and weather in Game View. The starting pitcher matchup is the single biggest factor in MLB props, and wind blowing out at a hitter-friendly park is the perfect storm for home run and total bases props.

Use the MIQ pitch grid, not just the top-line MIQ score. Open the player panel and check the pitch-by-pitch breakdown to understand why a matchup is good or bad, or use MIQ HQ to see every game's pitch-type matchups at once.

Toggle Player Info for context. Batting order, handedness, and opposing pitcher right in the Value Finder table: a batter batting 2nd vs. a Below Avg RHP is a much stronger play than a batter batting 8th vs. an Ace LHP, even at the same EV.

Run promos through the Boost Calculator to see the real EV before deciding whether to use a boost.

Save your daily starting point with Save, and exclude the books you don't have once, so Best Book and EV always reflect what's actually available to you.

Bookmark the suite URL: it lives at /dashboard/mlb-tool-suite. The tab you're on stays in the URL, so you can bookmark specific tabs too.

Refresh before betting to confirm the odds are still accurate.

Use VF History before betting a repeating prop. If the same line has been surfacing for days and keeps missing, that's worth knowing. Consistent recent hits + positive model edge + market EV is the strongest possible combination of signals.

Frequently Asked Questions#

What's the difference between the Value Finder and the Projections tab?

The Value Finder finds bets where the market odds are better than the market consensus fair value. It's purely about whether you're getting a good price relative to what the sharp market thinks. The Projections tab shows what our model estimates for each player, independent of market odds. They're complementary: Value Finder finds the mathematical edge, Projections provide the model context.

When should I use Model FV vs Market FV?

Market FV (default) is recommended for most users; it's the more conservative, battle-tested methodology. Model FV is useful when you specifically want to bet on our model's probability estimates rather than market consensus, or when looking for opportunities the market might be underpricing. Always treat Model FV as an additional signal, not a replacement for the market-based approach.

What is the MIQ (MatchIQ) score?

MIQ is our proprietary matchup analysis system that combines four sub-scores into a single Master MIQ rating: Pitch Mix Fit, Zone Fit, Batter Barrel %, and Pitcher Barrel %. The Master MIQ is percentile-ranked daily against all batters on the slate. See MKB MatchIQ (MIQ) Score for the full breakdown, and the MIQ HQ tab for every pitch-type matchup across every game.

What is the SB Feed's Run Game score, and the GREEN LIGHT tier?

Run Game (0–100) measures how easy the opposing battery is to run on, combining the opposing team's stolen-bases-allowed / caught-stealing / pickoff rates with the starting pitcher's own steals-allowed rate. GREEN LIGHT is the SB Feed's curated top tier, the steals equivalent of the HR Feed's TOP PICK. Because steals are inherently lower-probability than home runs, its probability bar is calibrated lower than an HR-style threshold. See Run Game: how it's calculated.

Why do park factors matter so much in MLB?

MLB is uniquely affected by venue. Coors Field (Colorado) inflates run scoring because of altitude and thin air, while Petco Park (San Diego) suppresses offense. This affects hits, home runs, total bases, and runs scored. A player's projection is materially different depending on the park, and the model accounts for this, but it's always worth double-checking in Game View.

How do weather conditions affect my bets?

Wind direction relative to the diamond is the biggest weather factor. Wind blowing out to center field favors hitters (more home runs, higher total bases). Wind blowing in from center field favors pitchers (fly balls die, fewer extra-base hits). Temperature also matters: balls carry farther in warm weather. Rain risk can delay or shorten games, which affects pitcher props (fewer innings = fewer K opportunities).

What does the pitcher tier (Ace, Elite, etc.) mean?

Pitcher tiers rank starting pitchers based on our model's assessment of their overall quality. Ace is the top tier, followed by Elite, Above Average, Average, and Below Average. This ranking factors into both the opposing batters' projections (harder to hit against an Ace) and the pitcher's own projections (an Ace is more likely to go deep and rack up Ks). Always visible in Game View and the Projections Pitchers sub-tab.

How often does the data update?

The Value Finder updates throughout the day, with lighter updates overnight. Projections and game data update each morning before games and again when lineup news comes in. Game Logs update the day after each game.

Found an issue?

Email hilary@mama-knows-bets.com or DM via X or Discord. We take bug reports seriously.

Ready to explore? Head to the MLB Tool Suite and start with the Value Finder tab.