Mama Knows Bets MLB Value Model: How-To Guide
Intro
Ultimately, it's up to you personally to decide what matters to you within my model, and all my followers use it slightly differently! The below info will help you understand what each column is, so that you can make your own judgment call on how much you want to to weight or consider that piece of info as you research for your bets. You may choose to completely ignore certain columns, or only focus on one column. That is your choice! There is no black or white, right or wrong answer on how you consider data. That's what makes it so fun and interesting! (to me at least 🤓)
For those that ask about how I personally select my bets: I'm picking players who are best odds, or at least over Fair Value, on books that I have (I don't have BetRivers or Bet365), and then either have a very high QK (which is the recommended units you would put on each play and also therefore an indicator of value; more below) or look really good based on the data indicators to the right -- as a note Yellow Stars or Green Circles are best for ALL columns, so I basically just want to see as much yellow and green as possible. I prioritize the "Batter vs. Pitcher Matchup" column as I've found that correlates the MOST with home runs (orange squares are also fine here, I just typically avoid the red Xs).
Lastly, regarding the resources I link below: Google, ChatGPT and/or Grok are also AMAZING resources for learning more. I highly recommend throwing in a search term and seeing what you get. My linked resources, and my models in general, are not the end-all be-all of data - research for yourself! You can do it! You don't need to rely on anyone else for great data, you can always find it yourself and I highly encourage you to try. 💪🏻📝📚🤓
I hope this post will help you research and make your most informed wagers! As always, good luck. 🫶🏻
REMINDER that all odds shown in the model each day are from BeeBettor! The odds are “locked in” (static) as of the time the model is published - you should always re-check odds yourself on BeeBettor before placing your bets to ensure you are still placing on the best book at the best available odds!
📝 TARGET LIST VS. TOP 6 BY GAME 📝
🏅 TARGET LIST: These are players who are meeting criteria for both DATA and VALUE, according to my model. My model is seeing an outsized chance for this player to hit a home run, and my model is calculating value at the shown Best Book odds. While the target list can have negative days and even weeks, at both flat rate betting (e.g., 1 unit on each player or any other flat amount) as well as QK betting (bet each player at the recommended QK), this target list has been profitable over time, historically.
➡️➡️Note these players are ONLY recommended at their Best Book odds - NOT at any lower price!! Please ALWAYS USE BEST BOOK ODDS - this will help improve your likelihood for long-term profitability.
6️⃣TOP 6 BY GAME: The top 6 players most likely to hit a home run per game, according to my model's scoring formula (the MKB Score). These players have the highest likelihood of hitting (~15%), but they're often heavily favored and juiced at the books which typically gives them less value for straight bets. Ideal for using promos or rounding out parlays. If anyone on the Top 6 List is also on the Target List, you will see the 🏅 in the far right column. This indicates they are the best of both worlds, as they are most likely to score within their game AND they have value at their best book odds.
📚GLOSSARY📚
Description of columns shown in the model
➡️MKB (Mama Knows Bets) Score: This is my model's score for how likely this player is to acheive the outcome for this model - it is not a %, but higher scores are the more likely players to acheive the outcome. You can see "hit rate" for each score group range in the "results" shared daily with each model (always the last image).
➡️Weather Risk Color Coding: You will notice the game & time are highlighted either Green, Yellow, Orange or Red - this correlates to how likely the game is to be postponed or delayed based on the risk of adverse weather. Green is no risk at all, yellow means a low risk which is a possible delay, orange means a medium risk which is a likely delay or possible postponement, and red is a high risk which is a near certain delay or postponement. (from RotoGrinders)
➡️Pos. (Position): A player's position when on defense/playing the field. DH = Designated Hitter, someone who only hits and does not play a fielding position.
➡️Projected Batting Order: At what spot the player is projected to bat in this game - player 1 will lead-off and therefore is likely to get the most potential at bats in the game. Players 1 and 2 are typically players who have a high chance to get on base and are fast at base-running. Players 3, 4 and 5 are typically power hitters that are likely to drive in runs. 6, 7, 8, 9 are typically "weaker" hitters (although still professionals!) and are the more likely spots to be subbed out later in the game for pinch hitters.
➡️Batter Hand: Indicates if the batter bats left, right, or switch (can bat either left or right, and will pick his side depending on the matchup with the pitcher)
➡️Pitcher/Pitcher Hand: Who is the projected starting pitcher for this game (note this can sometimes change before game time!) and what hand they throw pitches with. It is typically assumed that batters have an advantage when going against a pitcher of the opposite hand, however that is not always the case and every batter's individual success rate varies.
➡️Best Book: The book with the best odds for that player (should cover most books, but sometimes books are missing)
➡️Best Book Odds: Current odds on the best book (as odds change constantly, you should consider rechecking before placing your wager to make sure you are still getting best available odds - BeeBettor is free and a great way to do this!)
➡️FV (Fair Value): My model's calculation of Fair Value based on odds across all books - my model uses a weighted average (i.e., sharper books are weighted heavier) across one-way lines and then on top of that removes an estimated vig (the "juice" added by sportsbooks) to get to what we believe the sportsbooks think is the true implied probability of this outcome. This is a more conservative method for one-way lines than using "market average" only, and my model is likely over-estimating the vig (intentionally). Note if lines are two-way (both an over and under are available), that is a more accurate way to calculate to Fair Value, but most books do not offer two-way lines of my targeted props. Also note that estimating Fair Value is NOT a black and white process and you may see other odds screens or services land at a different Fair Value than my model does - everyone calculates a bit differently. It is up to you to decide how you much you trust any given source of Fair Value. Do your own research too!
➡️EV (Expected Value): The estimated Expected Value of this bet at best book odds as a %. The higher the number, the more value this bet has at the best book.
➡️Recommended U (QK [Quarter Kelly]): Using the Kelly Criterion formula, the recommended amount to wager on this bet. I am using Quarter Kelly (QK) here, which most people consider to be 1u, but depending on how aggressive or conservative you want your investment approach to be you can scale accordingly. See here for more on determining your Unit Size based on your Bankroll. As an example if this column reads .35 the model is recommending .35u on this bet. If your bankroll is $1000, your unit size is $10, and therefore you would be $3.50 on this bet if you are following QK.
⭐ RATINGS ⭐
(Excellent is always best - ideally you would want four stars across all the factors and this would indicate the player has an outsized chance based on all factors!)
➡️Park Factors: How favorable today's conditions are at this game's ballpark for home runs. This facors in park shape, size, wind and weather. (From BallPark Pal!)
➡️Batter vs. Pitcher Matchup: How well this batter matches up against the projected starting pitcher and therefore their likelihood of making contact / getting a hit. This takes into account pitch mix, release point, batter vs. pitcher history, and more. (From BallPark Pal!)
➡️Batter Barrel vs. Pitcher Hand: The batter's barrel % of total plate appearances received from the projected pitchers hand (if a switch hitter, from whichever side the batter is stronger against the proj. pitcher's hand). A "barrel" is a hard hit batted ball (in terms of exit velocity and launch angle) that has historically led to successful results across the league - more info here. This is based on percentiles, so batters in the top Xth percentile for barrels would receive Excellent, and so forth.
➡️Pitcher Barrel vs. Batter Hand: The projected pitcher's barrel % of total plate appearances thrown to the batter's hand (if a switch hitter, to whichever side the batter is stronger against the pitcher's hand). This is based on percentiles, so pitchers giving up the top Xth percentile of barrels would receive Excellent, and so forth.
📈 DAILY PERFORMANCE RECAP 📈
Daily Performance Recap:
Results by Flat Rate vs. Results by QK:
The Target List results can be tracked by either the Flat Rate performance (betting 1U on every player in the cohort) or by the QK performance (betting the recommended QK on every player in the cohort). The remaining cohorts are only tracked at Flat Rate as it would not make sense to track at QK (i.e., any player with negative value shows as zero QK, so you are not seeing the full picture of performance for any non-value players).
Each row is a “Cohort”:
➡️Targets: Players who made the MKB Target List (met the objectives for Data and Value)
➡️Non-Targets: All other players (every player NOT on the Target List)
➡️Top 6 by Game: All players who were on yesterday’s Top 6 by Game List
➡️Below Top 6: All other players (every player BELOW top 6 by Game)
➡️All Players is MECE: it is the sum of both Targets + Non-Targets, and the sum of Top 6 + Below Top 6
➡️➡️Targets + Non-Targets = All Players = Top 6 by Game + Below Top 6 by Game
Note the reason for including cohorts like “Non-Targets” and “Below Top 6” is to show a BENCHMARK for better evaluating the performance of our Targets and Top 6 List: if the model is working as intended, Targets should out-perform Non-Targets and Top 6 List should out-perform Below Top 6 in ROI
Columns for Results:
➡️Hits / Total: The number of players that hit the objective (a home run) / the total number of players who are in the cohort
➡️Profit (U): The amount that would be profited if you had bet on every player in the cohort (at either Flat Rate [top section] or QK [bottom section])
➡️ROI (Return on Investment) = Profit / Total Investment
➡️➡️ Total investment is the total risked on the cohort at either Flat Rate or QK
➡️Hit Rate: Hits / Total as a %
➡️➡️ The chart in the bottom right will show you the Hit Rate for each Score Group (all players whose scores fall in the specified range) - this gives you an indication of future probabilities for players rated in each score group
Target List Results:
So you can easily track the performance from one day to the next, this shows the full player list from yesterday’s target list, who achieved the outcome (# home runs), and how much was profited or lost on each player at either Flat Rate or QK.
➡️➡️ P/L = Profit/Loss
⚠️ It should go without saying, but this is not financial advice. This is gambling, and nothing is guaranteed. Wager at your own risk & discretion ⚠️
